Hurricane Season Forecast Update With 2025 La Nina Prediction
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Forecasters at AccuWeather have issued an updated projection for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why It Matters
The forecast raises concerns about the potential for another year of damaging storms, including some that may rapidly intensify before landfall. It pointed to signs that include continued warm ocean temperatures and the possibility of La Niña returning, which historically encourages more Atlantic hurricanes.
AccuWeather projects that three to six storms will directly impact the United States—the same number as during the 2024 season, which chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter described as "one of the most destructive and expensive hurricane seasons in modern history."
In this AccuWeather graphic, ocean temperatures are shown as of May 20, 2025.
In this AccuWeather graphic, ocean temperatures are shown as of May 20, 2025.
AccuWeather
What To Know
Sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean are currently well above average, according to AccuWeather's analysis.
"They're not quite as high as what we saw last year and in 2023, but they're still well, well above average," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a media advisory.
Waters here, as well as the Gulf and Caribbean, are expected to remain warm throughout most of the season, the forecast said.
The high temperatures and deep ocean heat content—a measure of how far warm water extends below the surface—could create optimal conditions for storm intensification.
"A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year," DaSilva said.
Meteorologists at the outlet are also monitoring the possibility of La Niña conditions developing during the second half of the season. While neutral conditions are expected early in the summer, a transition to La Niña could spike tropical activity by fall.
"If we trend towards this La Niña late in the hurricane season, we could see an active end to the hurricane season similar to what we saw last year," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather's El Niño and La Niña forecast for 2025.
AccuWeather's El Niño and La Niña forecast for 2025.
AccuWeather
AccuWeather's analysis of analog years—previous hurricane seasons with similar weather patterns—includes 2017 and 2023, both of which featured several high-impact storms, including Harvey and Irma.
For 2025, the outlet is predicting between 13 and 18 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes. It also forecasts between three major hurricanes that reach a strength of Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale—meaning sustained winds between 111 and 129 mph.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, in an advisory shared with Newsweek: "Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season.
"Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts. We're urging people in the northeastern Caribbean, U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to be prepared and pay close attention to hurricane season forecasts this year."
An AccuWeather graphic highlights tropical storm and hurricane landfall locations in analog years.
An AccuWeather graphic highlights tropical storm and hurricane landfall locations in analog years.
AccuWeather
What Happens Next
The season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30, with peak activity typically around September 10. AccuWeather experts say that 2025 could see a fast start with conditions favorable for storm formation in June, followed by a midseason lull and then a busy final stretch.
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