Mets' second-half storylines to watch, starting with the trade deadline

New York Times

5 days ago

The New York Mets have arrived at the All-Star break toting a 55-42 record that is 10th-best in franchise history through the first half. Only twice this century (2022 and 2006) has New York been better positioned at the Midsummer Classic.
And yet, this hasn't been a simple season for the Mets, and there are plenty of questions that David Stearns, Carlos Mendoza and the Mets roster will have to answer over the next couple of weeks before the trade deadline. Here are the big-picture questions that might determine the shape of the Mets' moves at the end of July.
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The Mets finished the first half with the fourth-best rotation ERA in the majors, behind only the Phillies, Rangers and Royals. That's good. But there was a pretty big divide in how that rotation performed through June 13 and afterward.
That's bad. What had been the best rotation by ERA for 2 1/2 months was 29th in ERA over the last month. A lot of that owes to injuries: The Mets lost Kodai Senga on June 12, Tylor Megill on June 17 and Griffin Canning on June 27. Before Senga and Sean Manaea returned this past weekend, New York was essentially running a three-man rotation with a mix of spot starters and bulk guys to flesh it out.
Now the Mets have less than two weeks to evaluate whether the returns of Senga, Manaea and Frankie Montas are enough to return the rotation to its status as a team strength. All three looked solid in Kansas City, though Montas hasn't exactly looked trustworthy over his handful of starts to this point.
Barring another significant injury — always a large 'if' for a pitching staff — the Mets should be reasonably well-covered from a depth perspective. While Canning is out for the season, Paul Blackburn should be back this month and Megill next month to provide depth, if needed, with other intriguing reinforcements in the upper levels of the minor leagues. But the Mets plan not just to get to October but to make noise once there, and it's reasonable to wonder if they possess enough quality at the top of their rotation to do so.
Carlos Mendoza's lineup includes four names in permanent marker: Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo. The other five spots are a constant jumble, in part because of the young, relatively unproven options trying to show they're worth regular playing time. Whether the Mets need to add another offensive piece hinges on how they feel about the quintet of Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. Put bluntly, how many of them can occupy regular spots in a championship lineup?
Here's how one projection system (THE BAT X) views that group.
Vientos can play third, Baty can play second and third, Mauricio can play second, third and short, and Acuña can play second, third, short and center field. How you view any of that group depends on how far back you can remember. Mauricio looks the best right now. Baty looked the best in May. Acuña looked the best in April. Vientos looked the best throughout a breakthrough 2024 season. If the Mets feel they can devote two everyday spots to that group of four, through platoons or riding hot streaks, then they probably don't need to go outside the organization to acquire another bat. If they're unsure, they can snag one more infield piece for insurance. If they doubt that group, it's time to acquire an established starter on the infield or in center.
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Alvarez's status is more isolated because of the inherent lack of defensive flexibility. He's basically fighting to win back at least a share of his job from Luis Torrens. However, the Mets' overall evaluation of their offense needs to account for what they'll get out of the catcher position. To this point, they're tied for 23rd in baseball in offensive production out of their catchers.
As 2024 proved, no part of a team evolves more over a season than the bullpen. The Mets began last season with Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley as the primary set-up men for Díaz. Raley went under the knife by May; Ottavino was with the club all season but was left off the postseason roster for multiple rounds. By the NLCS, Ryne Stanek — acquired in July, nearly released in August, not trusted until October — was pretty much the only other arm Mendoza relied on in the later innings to get the ball to Díaz.
This season, the Mets have once again lost their set-up lefty for the year in A.J. Minter and seen Stanek slide down the hierarchy. Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazobán have been Mendoza's go-to set-up men, even as both went through some serious struggles in the second half of June. Brazobán is on pace to throw 79 innings — both a career high and the most by a Mets reliever since 2019 (Seth Lugo).
Raley should return this month, giving the Mets their best chance to replace Minter internally. But New York has lost Minter, Danny Young, Dedniel Núñez and perhaps Max Kranick for the season. It should be looking to add an arm or two to the pen by July 31.
(Top photo of Sean Manaea: Jay Biggerstaff / Imagn Images)