What Trade Deals Reveal About Leadership In A Fractured World

Forbes

25-05-2025

The old playbook is broken. Linear planning, market dominance and top-down control no longer deliver competitive advantage in an environment shaped by geopolitical rupture, institutional drag and regulatory fragmentation. Leaders today don't just need vision—they need agility within constraint.
Two recent trade developments between the United Kingdom, the European Union and India may look modest on the surface. But they offer a clear window into how modern strategic leadership operates under pressure. These deals (one smoothing the UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit and the other unlocking access to India's vast spirits market) showcase how to make progress when control is partial, options are limited and success depends not on power but on positioning.
Both the UK-EU trade reset and the UK-India agreement were not expansions into new territory. Instead, they were efforts to recover access that had been lost or limited due to previous policy decisions. These were not declarations of dominance but exercises in restoring relevance through compromise and precision.
This reflects an important idea from organizational theory: strategic leadership often unfolds within institutional structures that limit unilateral decision-making. Classic models frame leaders as architects of change with wide latitude. Contemporary leadership theory, however, recognizes that leaders operate within systems shaped by history, regulation, norms and interdependencies.
Rather than trying to reverse the post-Brexit economic model wholesale, UK policymakers identified discrete areas where friction could be reduced without reopening the entire negotiation. In doing so, they demonstrated how to lead when the system cannot be reengineered but can be reshaped at the margins. The implication for executives is clear: when full control is unavailable, the strategic task is to locate leverage points where modest shifts can create meaningful results.
If you're facing legacy constraints—whether in regulation, supply chains or internal policy—don't default to full-system redesign. Instead, scan for pressure points where small concessions or updates can unlock outsized returns. For example, if cross-border frictions are limiting market access, try aligning on standards or logistics rather than renegotiating core terms. In internal strategy, if bureaucracy is slowing innovation, look for processes that can be decoupled or delegated without triggering structural overhaul.
The whisky tariff cut exemplifies this approach. By lowering India's 150% import duties on Scotch to 75% (with a plan to reduce it further to 40% over a decade), the UK created access to the world's largest whisky market without rewriting broader trade frameworks. The move offers Scotch producers the ability to scale gradually in a price-sensitive but high-growth environment, leveraging demand without triggering competitive retaliation.
India was already the largest market for Scotch whisky by volume in 2024, importing over 192 million bottles. However, due to these punitive tariffs, it ranked only fourth by value. With the phased reduction in duties, the Scotch Whisky Association projects a potential $1.25 billion boost in exports over the next five years, an increase that underscores how strategic entry points rather than sweeping overhauls can shift entire market trajectories.
Yet this opening does not guarantee dominance. Irish Single Malt, long considered a boutique competitor, has been expanding rapidly in emerging markets. Speaking in an interview, Vijay Pereira, president-elect of the Indian Academy of Management, said: 'Market access is just the first move. What will distinguish success is how well producers engage with the nuances of Indian consumer preferences, regional logistics and competitive storytelling. This isn't a tariff game—it's a trust game.'
In this context, the real advantage lies not simply in exporting more whisky but in embedding British spirits—Scotch and otherwise—within a broader consumer and distribution ecosystem. Strategic gains will favor those who localize effectively, adapt to complex regulatory layers and build durable relationships across the value chain.
This kind of structural pragmatism prompts reflection on how leaders interpret constraints in their own environments. Where in the organization has complexity or legacy policy been mistaken for immovability? And what possibilities open up when constraints are treated not as fixed boundaries but as part of the strategic landscape to be navigated deliberately?
One of the more subtle aspects of these trade adjustments is how they were framed. The agreements were not presented as reversals or concessions. Instead, they were positioned as updates aligned with national interest and long-term economic health. This reflects the leader's role in narrative construction, a central principle in sensemaking theory.
In organizational settings, past strategies often become embedded in culture and stakeholder expectations. Deviating from them can appear inconsistent unless reframed with credibility. The UK government did not propose rejoining the EU's single market. Instead, it agreed to mutual standards on agricultural exports to ease cross-border commerce. This allowed for progress without violating prior commitments.
For leaders, the takeaway is that reframing is a critical leadership capability. Whether shifting market focus, redefining product lines or adjusting partnerships, the ability to reposition strategy without destabilizing trust is essential.
If your firm is pivoting direction—whether in products, markets or partnerships—don't assume stakeholders will follow just because the logic is sound. Instead, ask: What story does this shift interrupt, and how can I author a new one that preserves continuity while embracing change? Reframing isn't spin—it's translating disruption into legitimacy. A change accepted is often a story believed.
Such moves raise a useful internal question: when strategy changes, does the story that supports it evolve in tandem? And if stakeholder resistance emerges, is it because the change itself is misaligned or because the rationale has not been communicated in terms people can actually accept?
The UK-India trade agreement includes a gradual reduction in import tariffs, with an immediate cut followed by further decreases over a ten-year period. This approach exemplifies incrementalism, a strategic method that values pacing, institutional learning and stakeholder accommodation over rapid transformation.
Incrementalism often contrasts with traditional strategic planning, which tends to favor clear endpoints and tightly defined timelines. Yet in volatile or highly regulated environments, adaptive strategies built on phased actions are more sustainable. They allow for adjustment as conditions evolve and feedback is collected.
In management literature, this aligns with the concept of emergent strategy, a process in which leaders begin with a broad objective but adapt their tactics as new information becomes available. For firms navigating uncertain regulatory environments or international expansion, phased entry strategies can de-risk decisions, preserve optionality and signal flexibility to partners.
If your strategy involves high-risk or politically sensitive shifts—such as entering new markets, changing pricing models or adopting new technology—build in phased checkpoints. Launch pilots with opt-in participation before scaling. Use no-regret moves that are low-risk but informative. And treat every phase not as prelude to the final answer but as a source of directional learning.
Strategic discipline today is not about moving quickly. It's about sequencing moves in ways that enhance learning, reduce exposure and increase cumulative impact.
In the case of whisky, this phased liberalization gives producers time to assess price elasticity, supply chain capacity and consumer education in a complex, regionally diverse market. Smaller distilleries that previously found India commercially inaccessible may now consider gradual market entry, testing demand and building partnerships under more favorable conditions.
Leaders might ask whether their organizations allow for such thoughtful calibration. Is the current pace of execution driven by internal ambition or by what external stakeholders can realistically absorb? And when strategy is rolled out, is space built in for reflection, revision and learning, or is deviation still seen as failure?
If your leadership context is defined more by limits than by leverage, don't ask what can I control—ask where can I gain traction?
Within a fragmented world, strategy is less about conquest and more about choreography. It's about knowing when to move, where to yield and how to frame progress so it sticks. The real question is not what can be controlled but how leadership is exercised when most of the game is played between the lines.