Donald Trump's Approval Rating Reverses Course With Conservatives

Newsweek

14-07-2025

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
President Donald Trump's approval rating has improved among those who describe themselves as conservative, an analysis of polls shows.
According to polling by YouGov/The Economist, while the proportion of conservatives who approve of the president declined between March and May, it has since improved to the levels it was at the start of his second term.
Why It Matters
If he loses support among conservatives—his base—by a meaningful proportion, it could hurt Republicans in marginal seats and in swing states that are up for reelection in the 2026 midterms, potentially shifting the balance of power to Democrats in Congress.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty/AP/Canva
What To Know
Every month, YouGov and The Economist has polled groups of U.S. adult citizens to ascertain the level of support Trump has. From reviewing each poll in the last six months, a pattern emerges among conservative voters in which support for the president declines then rebounds to its base level.
In February, the pollsters found that Trump has a net approval rating among conservatives of +80 percent. This good fortune continued in March, when his conservative net approval rating peaked at +85 percent.
But in April, it dropped by 14 percent to a +71 percent rating. This came when Trump announced his tariffs policy, which proved disastrous for the markets. The downward trajectory continued in May, when Trump had a net approval rating within this demographic of +67 percent.
By June, Trump's approval rating had changed course. His approval rating increased slightly to +68 percent. In July, it increased to +80 percent, where it was in February. By then, Trump had softened his tariff stance and the markets had rebounded accordingly. He also passed his signature tax and spending bill, "The One Big Beautiful Bill," and authorized strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified.
While the polling suggests an uptick in support from conservatives, when other voters are included, there is a suggestion that dissatisfaction with Trump is growing. A Tyson Group poll, conducted June 25-26 among 1,027 U.S. adults, showed Trump at 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval.
Other polls have suggested the "One Big Beautiful Bill" has not been met with widespread support.
President Donald Trump speaks during a lunch with African leaders in the State Dining Room of the White House on July 9, 2025, in Washington.
President Donald Trump speaks during a lunch with African leaders in the State Dining Room of the White House on July 9, 2025, in Washington.
AP Photo/Evan Vucci
What People Are Saying
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek: "Trump looks for eye-catching opportunities that appeal to his base, not so much for their political impact as for their polling value. He is the ratings president and understands the effect certain actions will have on the media and therefore on his core voters. The attack on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities almost certainly hasn't put that program out of action but played well in the media. Politically, it may have made the whole Middle East less safe, but it made Trump appear a man of action.
"His big, beautiful bill may do little for his base in the heartlands, but getting it through Congress feels like sticking it to professional politicians and therefore is a win for Trump in conservative voters' eyes. These 'wins' may be short term and tactical but will continue to give him polling boosts as polls follow the news cycles. As long as 47 remains the story, he won't succumb to the slow second-term decline more familiar in past presidencies."
What Happens Next
As Trump's presidency continues, his approval rating will likely fluctuate. In November 2026, voters will head to the midterms, where his policies will be tested.