Big tension for India as economy shows signs of slowing down... what is the connection with US and China?

India.com

19-07-2025

Big tension for India as economy shows signs of slowing down... what is the connection with US and China?
According to a report by financial services firm Nuvama, the Indian economy is showing signs of slowdown. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken several steps to boost growth including interest rates and increased the availability of money in the market. But even after this, the pace of growth has slowed down in many sectors.
What is the report saying?
The report also said that most of the economic data, which were in double digits a year ago, have now come down to single digits. According to the report, India's high frequency data is now slowing down. Most of them have gone into single digits. This slowdown of the Indian economy is not untouched by the global economic scenario, especially its relations with the US and China. The trade war between the world's two largest economies and their own economic challenges affect India both directly and indirectly.
Nuvama's report shows that the Indian economy is showing signs of slowdown. Despite the efforts of RBI, the pace of development has slowed down in many sectors. The pace of taking loans from banks has slowed down. It was earlier 16%, which has now come down to 9%. The pace of GST collection has also slowed down. It was earlier 11%, which has come down to 6.2% in June 2025. Exports have also decreased. Total exports (goods and services) have increased by only 6%.
How bad is the situation?
The 12-month average of many important indicators is continuously going down. This shows that the economy is weakening. People are buying fewer things. Passenger vehicle (PV) sales have declined. It was 7% last year, which has now come down to 2%. There has been a big decline in the real estate sector as well. Property sales in the top seven cities have come down from 28% to 4%.
Salary growth in BSE500 companies has also halved. It was 12% earlier, which has now come down to 6%. Growth rate in eight major sectors is 3%. Whereas a year ago it was 8%. Diesel consumption is 1%. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) sales have declined by 3%. Exports of goods and services are growing only by 6%. Profit of BSE500 companies (excluding oil marketing companies) is now 10%. Whereas a year ago it was 21%.
The report says that most high-frequency indicators have now returned to single-digit growth. This is similar to the pre-pandemic years of 2018-19. This means that economic activity is slowing down. While help from the government continues. In such a situation, more steps are needed to promote growth.
What's connection with US and China?
The ongoing trade war and tariff race between the US and China has increased instability in global trade. If there is a recession in the US and China, it will have a serious impact on the entire world and also on India. The reason is that China is India's largest trading partner and the US is the second largest. Affected by US tariffs, some companies may consider transferring their manufacturing units from China to India. This can benefit India as an alternative supply center. However, this process is slow and complex.
It is also important to understand the impact of this economic slowdown on the global economy, especially India's trade relations with the US and China.
China's economic slowdown affects the global supply chain. This can also affect some of India's sectors that depend on Chinese components, such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles.