How gas and power prices have become political experiments

Axios

2 days ago

Average costs to power homes have been trending upward while gasoline costs have moved largely the other way, Labor Department data shows.
Why it matters: Steadily rising demand from AI, heat, an increasingly electrifying economy and more are all pushing up power bills.
The intrigue: It all makes the politics of energy prices heading into next year's midterms worth watching.
Democrats and green groups hope to impose a political cost for rising electricity bills.
The killing of renewables subsidies in the budget law will send prices higher, they argue in speeches and ads.
Trump officials, meanwhile, say they're unshackling policy constraints on fossil fuels to keep prices in check.
What we're watching: DOE's independent stats arm sees residential power costs up 4% in 2025 to 17 cents per kilowatt-hour.
The Energy Information Administration outlook released Tuesday sees another rise to 18 cents per kWh next year.
Yes, but: Gasoline prices are going the other way amid ample oil supplies and rather tepid global oil demand growth.
EIA projects that the nationwide average retail price will be $2.90 per gallon next year, around 6% less than 2025.
What's next: The diverging costs set up a political experiment.
If these trends hold, what matters more politically for the GOP as it seeks to keep control of Congress — higher bills to keep the lights on, or lower costs to fill up?
One thing to keep in mind: gasoline costs are very visible and typically incurred more often than electricity payments.
Lots of homes are heated with natural gas, too, and EIA sees a slight rise in residential prices this year and slight dip next year.