Trade war, slumping border traffic: What does that mean for the Gordie Howe bridge?

CBC

17-04-2025

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Amid U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs which have triggered a trade war with Canada, cross-border trips have plummeted ahead of the expected opening this fall of the new international bridge linking the two countries.
Canadians — not Americans — are footing the entire bill for the Gordie Howe International Bridge.
In 2024, the price tag rose approximately $700 million to a total of $6.4 billion, according to the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority (WDBA).
While an exact opening date has yet to be released, September has been the target. The original November launch's delay was pegged to issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Gordie Howe bridge sits west of the other two crossings along the Detroit River that connect Windsor and Detroit: the Ambassador Bridge and Detroit-Windsor Tunnel, both of which bring traffic directly onto Windsor streets.
The Gordie Howe bridge will route traffic away from more populated areas and directly connect Highway 401 and the I-75 in Michigan.
On the heels of Trump's recently introduced tariffs — specifically ones involving the automotive industry — border crossings across Canada are down significantly. This includes a sharp decline of nearly 67,000 vehicles at the two Windsor crossings in March compared to the same period last year, according to numbers provided by the Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association.
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When asked if the trade war has affected anything related to the construction of the Gordie Howe bridge, or projections around traffic levels once it opens, WDBA spokesperson Manny Paiva said his agency wasn't able to comment until after the April 28 federal election ends.
"Our media interaction is limited to support the democratic process," he said.
If the political and economic climate between the neighbouring countries bumps up against the bridge opening, Shooshan Danagoulian expects traffic and trade to worsen.
"I think that we should expect to see reduced projections," said the economics professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, Mich.
"At the same time, we should not lose track of the fact that the bridge was built with a [lengthy] timeline … and not just one presidency."
Danagoulian said no matter how severely strained the relationship between Canada and the United States may get, it should not affect the overall future profitability of the bridge.
"Whatever loss in trade, and traffic and transactions that the bridge will see upon opening, it will more than make up for in the long run. It's intended to benefit people living in the country. Therefore, a return on investment in the short run may not be the best predictor of the usefulness of a bridge."
According to Danagoulian, U.S. manufacturers and consumers would simply accept a higher cost of doing trade with Canada and go on purchasing those products.
"I don't believe that there's sufficient room for Americans to … change their consumption patterns in that way. I expect in the new normal, we're all just going to be paying a whole lot more for nothing."
'Continue to be an optimist'
Ryan Donally, CEO of the Windsor-Essex Chamber of Commerce, said he's holding hope as it relates to the Gordie Howe crossing despite the trade war.
"I'm going to continue to be an optimist," Donally said.
"I have to think that calmer heads will prevail … that this is going to be a blip on the radar."
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Donally called the bridge a "multi-generational investment" that symbolizes the long-held relationship between the two countries.
"Do I think this is going to potentially change Canada's strategy longer term as it relates to the United States? Yes, to a degree … [but] I still think … that globalization will continue to matter because there is advantages depending on where you are in the world, and whether it's cost advantages or materials advantages or skills advantages."
Referring to Highway 401 to 1-75. He's saying it's basically the same road.
Donally said the attractiveness of linking Montreal down to Florida without hitting a stoplight remains a fascinating option for travellers and partners in the trucking and other industries.
"That free-flowing … easy movement of goods and services across that border and across that extremely important economic main artery has been facilitated by the Gordie Howe bridge."
'Incredibly grateful' to Canada
The head of the Detroit Regional Chamber said Americans and people from Michigan — especially those in the auto industry — are "incredibly grateful" to the Canadian government for digging deep and getting the bridge built.
Sandy Baruah said the Trump administration's tariff policies are "very much a work in progress" and he's been vocal against their strategy.
"Right now, obviously it's not pretty," he said.
"It's very much the wrong move, particularly for Michigan as our economy is so integrated with Canada's."
Baruah said it'll take time to get traffic moving over the bridge if the current economic and political environment continues.
"Is there going to be a differential post and pre what the tariff policies may be? Absolutely. But we're hoping that these tariff issues can be resolved certainly by the fall."
Baruah said the Gordie Howe bridge was a natural outgrowth of the demand for trade between the countries.
"When I look at the bridge, that's what I see. I see it responding to a very real trade and business need. That's obviously why the Canadian government spent its treasures to get the bridge built."
According to Baruah, the people excited about the bridge are the same people who aren't excited about the president's tariff policies.
Trucking associations monitoring closely
If tariffs are prolonged until when the Gordie Howe bridge is set to open, he expects the new and existing crossings will "unquestionably" be affected, said Marco Beghetto, a spokesperson for both the Ontario Trucking Association and Canadian Trucking Alliance.
"We're hearing back is there is some confusion across the supply chain on both sides of the border. Shippers, carriers, customs brokers … trying to understand the changes to their custom processes on the fly," Beghetto said.
Beghetto said that confusion is a "steep learning curve" for everyone about how to comply and where tariffs and duties will be applied.
"It may be exacerbated [at the Gordie Howe bridge later this year] … it's a new bridge with new processes, and then you add sort of the tariffs on top of that. It creates a complex situation … we're bracing for impact."