Global week ahead: Crunch time for trade talks as Trump's deadline nears

CNBC

27-07-2025

I think most would agree that the news cycle has been relentless for most of 2025, but certain stories do seem a little "Groundhog Day" at the moment.
Earlier this month, I wrote about the conundrum facing the newsroom over how to approach President Donald Trump's then-trade talk deadline of July 9. Now, at the end of the month, we find ourselves in a similar position, but this time the date we are all watching is August 1.
Why? Once again, it's another deadline for countries across the globe to try and agree a trade truce with the United States, with the European Union in particular focus this time round.
Debate in the newsroom resurfaces … when is a deadline not a deadline?
The week has become even trickier to predict, with talks between the U.S. and China now taking center stage in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday — potentially further complicating the picture for Europe.
A U.S. trade agreement with the European Union has seemed tantalizingly close, with CNBC's Silvia Amaro reporting that a 15% baseline tariff rate is the base-case scenario, according to an EU diplomat. These reports drove stock markets across Europe and the U.S. higher last week.
On Friday, however, Trump told reporters there was only a "50-50 chance" of a deal.
As CNBC's Holly Ellyatt explains, the EU is keeping its so-called "trade bazooka" — or Anti Coercion Instrument — warm in case an agreement is not reached by the August deadline.
The corporate world is crying out for an agreement, piling pressure on the European Union to put an end to the uncertainty. Puma, VW, Michelin and other corporates across Europe have downgraded their outlooks citing the impact of tariffs and the ongoing pressure the restrictions are putting on these businesses.
This week, all eyes will be on another raft of earnings from Europe, including banking giants UBS, Santander and Standard Chartered, drinks firm Heineken, pharma giant AstraZeneca and energy major Shell to name a few.
On the data front, GDP growth rates for France, Spain, Germany and Italy will be released on Wednesday, providing insight into the wider impact of the market uncertainty.
Last week, the tricky economic conditions saw the European Central Bank opt for a hawkish hold of the benchmark rate at 2%, with President Christine Lagarde saying the ECB is "in a good place to hold and watch how risks develop over the next few months."
And so Friday August 1st will be a crucial date for market participants and corporates (and the newsroom)… until it isn't.