Horse racing tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse every race for Missile Stakes day at Randwick

The Australian

5 days ago

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races at the Missile Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
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RACE 1: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500m)
Ron Dufficy: This is a tough race but I feel RANTAN (5) is a capable horse and although not a lot has gone right for him of late, he's very fit now. There is a little question mark about him on the heavy track but I'm willing to take the risk. STRATAFY (13) is a good longshot as his two runs back have had merit. Tenderize is not a noted first-up horse but he's got the blinkers back on and he is a Midway winner on a heavy track last preparation. CHANGE MY ADDRESS (10) is a lightly-raced three-year-old with upside and I will be watching the market with her. She's in good hands.
Ray Thomas: MAL COUPE (3) is flying this campaign with three wins from his last four starts, all on soft/heavy tracks. He was dominant winning at Canterbury last start when carrying 59.5kg. He will be in this for a long way. STILL ALICE (12) always sprints well fresh and did win first-up last campaign. She adds value to multiples. RANTAN (5) does look ready to win and I'm not letting Change My Address under my guard, either.
RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1000m)
Dufficy: I like the way CAMBAR (4) is trialling. He has won both trials easily, he is two from two at 1000m and the wet looks no issue for him. DUKE OF BRONTE (1) is going well, he has got the right form, he's very fit and he likes it soft but can he handle the big weight? EXIT FEE (3) has had five weeks off and is back to 1000m which is the query but he is a better horse than that last run suggests. NATION CHANGING (13) is an unbeaten Tamworth horse resuming but he won his most recent trial by nine lengths and is a huge watch.
Thomas: This is race of many chances, like most on the program today. EXIT FEE (3) was disappointing second-up when an odds-on favourite but he's been freshened since and could easily bounce back here. DUKE OF BRONTE (1) is bursting to win a race after two very good runs to start his preparation but his outside barrier and big weight is the leveller. NATION CHANGING (13) won his only two starts comfortably during autumn and resumes off that huge Gunnedah trial win. He's has to be included among the main chances. I understand why you have gone with CAMBAR (4), Ronnie. He's trialling very well and handles wet tracks.
RACE 3: PETALUMA HANDICAP (1200m)
Dufficy: USEAPIN (3) was very good winning two starts back but then as it turned out last week the on-pace bias was completely against her. I'm prepared to give her another chance. DOLLAR MAGIC (1) is a professional 'bridesmaid' who is crying out to win another race. She has a big weight here but is sure to be in the thick of things. REGIMENTAL COLOURS (2) is untried at 1200m but has won three of her last four starts and should run well. The other chance is KARINSKA (8). She's a young horse down in the weights here but she showed talent in some strong two-year-old races last preparation.
Thomas: KARINSKA (8) was scratched from the Canterbury midweeks and saved for this race. She hasn't been exposed to a heavy track before and is taking on older horses first-up but showed promise last season, is drawn well and has no weight. REGIMENTAL COLOURS (2) surged late to win at Randwick and she does excel on rain-affected going. DOLLAR MAGIC (1) is always very competitive and USEAPIN (3) deserves another chance for the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie.
RACE 4: CHANDON HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy: AMREEKIYAH (5) is an unbeaten mare who is heading in the right direction. She's proven at the distance, looks an adaptable type and I'm happy to lean her way. STARDEEL (1) looked a different horse when allowed to roll along last week at 1200m. He only has to run the 1400m to be in the finish again. AXIUS (2) is also up in distance and although he was a little disappointing last start, he can bounce back. PRETTY POWERFUL (7) was just fair in two runs back but 1400m does suit her better.
Thomas: I'm also with AMREEKIYAH (5). She let down very impressively to win at Canterbury first-up to make it three wins from as many starts. Talented mare who can win again. STARDEEL (1) will give Amreekiyah something to chase. He led and dominated in very heavy conditions at Rosehill and might be able to get control again. AXIUS (2) is lightly-raced but has ability and 1400m should suit. VETWELVE (4) will find this harder than his easy win at Kembla but he's racing in very good form.
RACE 5: RANVET HANDICAP (1000m)
Dufficy: Another very even race, Ray. BONITA QUEEN (6) is a sharp mare resuming. She has no experience on heavy tracks but that is a risk I'm willing to take as she has been so good at the trials. WORLD ALLIANCE (4) is going well and nicely placed in a race like this. The only concern is he is coming back to 1000m being a backmarker. BUNDEENA's (8) two runs back have been great, maps well from his inside barrier and should be around the mark again. FRILLED (7) is a 1000m specialist and is trialling OK so I will be looking for any confidence about her in the market.
Thomas: BONITA QUEEN (6) is an exciting, frontrunning mare and she looked very sharp in her recent Warwick Farm trial wins. She's resuming but does have good fresh form and is proven on soft tracks although this will be her first test on heavy going. BUNDEENA (8) has returned to racing in very good form, he has a strong finishing sprint and should handle these track conditions. WORLD ALLIANCE (4) has never been racing in better form and he will be charging home. HI DUBAI (5) had excuses last start and deserves another chance given her proven ability to handle wet tracks.
RACE 6: TAB HANDICAP (2400m)
Dufficy: I'm with CORMAC T (5). He's a very fit horse, he has a gear change, and ticks a few boxes in a very, very tough race. PIGGYBACK (6) backs-up on a testing track which I see is a positive. She has never been over 2400m but this is the right time to try her. KNIGHTS ARMOUR (2) is sneaking up in the weights through sheer consistency but he keeps jumping the bar and loves it wet.
Thomas: I concede PIGGYBACK (6) is a query at the trip but she's on the back-up after a game effort when third at Rosehill in very wet conditions last week. Piggyback is fit, will race on the speed, handles these track conditions and will give her backers a great sight. Why is STYLEBENDER (11) $34? I know he is up in grade but he was very good at Kembla winning easily over 2400m last start, he's in a rich vein of form, stays strongly and will have no trouble with the heavy track. CORMAC T (5) is overdue for a change of luck and ELLE HUDSON (14) is a tough stayer working his way into form.
RACE 7: ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP (1200m)
Dufficy: KERGUELEN (2) is one of the better bets of the day. He was beaten by an in-form horse in King Of Rouseau last start but can go one better here. Kerguelen's best form is on the wet and he gets the chance to get another win on the board for his new stable. The big danger has to be THEBLADE (12). He's always shown talent, he's been well looked after, he was gelded before this preparation, and looked very good in his trial. With 54kg he is going to be the testing material. WINSTON HILLS (9) was pretty good this grade last preparation and his fresh form is great. SILVANITO (8) is a good longshot as he is trialling well and his best form is on wet tracks.
Thomas: I've been with KERGUELEN (2) every time he has raced but I'm jumping off him and going with THEBLADE (12) first-up. He was brilliant winning a Rosehill trial last week, goes well on wet tracks, and has always shown something, as you pointed out, Ronnie. The 6.5kg he gets off Kerguelen might be the crucial difference on the heavy track. WINSTON HILLS (9) is a first-up specialist and he has a powerful finishing sprint. Kerguelen excels on heavy tracks with three wins and two seconds from his five starts. He's a deserved favourite and might just be too good. POINT AND SHOOT (1) was in great touch last summer but he has a lot of weight first-up on an unsuitable wet track.
RACE 8: MISSILE STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: GENERAL SALUTE (4) ran well first-up in Brisbane, he has trialled nicely since and is set to run boldly. I'm confident about his chances. BRUDENELL (5) looked sharp in his Gosford trial win and he probably has better 1200m form than most of these. ENCAP (3) never runs badly, he's a tough competitor and can run boldly even though this is probably short of his best distance. ROBUSTO (2) has to come back in distance which is not ideal but he has a decisive race fitness edge.
Thomas: ENCAP (3) is an underrated by classy horse who has been placed at Group 1 level in the Golden Rose and Doncaster Mile last season. He's also a Group 2 winner at 1300m, has good first-up form and his recent barrier trial win at Warwick Farm was very impressive. He's over the odds. The in-form ROBUSTO (2) is very fit which should help coming back to 1200m in these wet conditions. GENERAL SALUTE (4) has superior soft track form. BRUDENELL (5) is a tough sprinter who races well this track.
RACE 9: PREMIER'S CUP PRELUDE (1800m)
Dufficy: Where do we go here? It's hard to read some of these stayers resuming but I've gone with ADELAIDE RIVER (2). He has been gelded before this preparation and has won two trials five weeks apart in very good style. He looks like he arrives here ready to make a statement. SALTCOATS (16) is the danger after a couple of recent runs. ST LAWRENCE (8) is ready to pounce at a distance that should suit. GLORY DAZE (12) is racing well, has no weight after the claim and has to be a contender.
Thomas: There's a lot to like about SALTCOATS (16). He has been improved by two runs from a spell and his effort to close late for third at Listed Level in the Winter Challenge last start is a great pointer for this race. He's getting out to his right distance range and he did win over the Randwick 1800m course when last in work, plus he handles heavy tracks. The classy ADELAIDE RIVER (2) has looked really good in two recent trials and looks primed to run well. ESTADIO MESTALLA (5) is very fit and racing well. ROYAL SUPREMACY (13) was big odds when he won over this course and distance last start but looks an improving type.
RACE 10: DRINKWISE MILE (1600m)
Dufficy: This is another even race but I feel PURE ALPHA (7) is going well without winning but the booking of Nash Rawiller may help to find that extra length. PUNTIN (3) is the danger. I want to forgive him when a beaten favourite on that sticky track last start and back to a mile he deserves another chance. GLAD YOU THINK SO (6) landed some good bets winning last start and could easily go right on with the job. MORNINGTON PIER (12) has looked good winning both his starts for the new stable.
Thomas: PUNTIN (3) missed a placed for the first time in his career last start but coming back to 1600m suits. He's very genuine and rates as a strong winning chance. His dangers include GLAD YOU THINK SO (6) who powered to the line to win over this course and distance last start. PURE ALPHA (7) gets his chance to finally breakthrough here and NANA'S WISH (5) is a tough mare who excels on wet tracks.