Supercross betting, predictions, odds, picks, lines at Pittsburgh: Chase Sexton opened as favorite

NBC Sports

25-04-2025

For the first time since Round 7 in Arlington, Texas, Chase Sexton opened as the sole favorite to win a Monster Energy Supercross race at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. His odds of +170 to win the event are narrowly ahead of Cooper Webb (+175), underscoring the tightness of the championship race between these two riders. Bettors quickly jumped on those lines and skewed them in Webb's direction. As of Friday, Webb was favored at +150 to Sexton's +175.
Webb continues to hold the advantage in regard to Championship odds with an opening minus line of -228 to Sexton's +163, but even that shows a shift in momentum. The differential between the two lines was nearly 500 points in the two previous rounds. It shrunk to 442 points for Pittsburgh and that gap will get smaller if Sexton makes up at least another three championship points on Webb in Pittsburgh.
During the past few weeks, rain was Sexton's Achilles Heel in New England and the the forecast for Pittsburgh has hovered between rainy conditions during the morning sessions, clearing in the afternoon and evening. Smart Money will want to watch that forecast closely.
Webb's weakness has been the whoops sections and last week's pair of them cost him a shot of pressuring Sexton. This week, there is only one half-lane of whoops in Pittsburgh that leads into back-to-back bowl turns.
The only other rider with a championship line published this week is Ken Roczen (+4015), but he will need a lot of help in the form of results outside the top 20 for Sexton and Webb to truly contend.
Aaron Plessinger's early trouble this season with last-place finishes in San Diego and Anaheim 2 denied him the opportunity to contend for the championship, but he shows the third-best odds of winning this round at +432. He is also the only other rider with minus odds to stand on the podium, although with +103 assigned by Supercross' official line maker, AltSports, early in the week, he was extremely attractive. His podium line has since been adjusted to -175 on the public-facing NXTBets.com.
But there is still a bet to made concerning Plessinger. His outright win line was adjust to +750 and if Sexton and Webb become overly concerned with one another or if weather plays a factor, that is worth some couch cushion money.
Justin Cooper remains the best bet among winless riders in 2025. He opened at +2105 and adjusted to +1600 as of Friday. These relatively long lines drug his podium odds to +125, which makes him attractive for a modest bet.
Opening Odds, Outright Win
Chase Sexton, +170
Cooper Webb, +175
Aaron Plessinger, +432
Ken Roczen, +682
Malcolm Stewart, +1632
Justin Cooper, +2105
Dylan Ferrandis, +3492
Justin Barcia, +4995
Logan Leitzel, +6906
Joey Savatgy, +13982
Justin Hill, +13982
Shane McElrath, +13982
Christian Craig, +13982
Colt Nichols, +15434
Benny Bloss, +15434
Dean Wilson, +15434
Mitchell Oldenburg, +15434
Bubba Pauli, +16886
Kyle Chisholm, +16886
Kevin Moranz, +16886
Tristan Lane, +16886
Justin Starling, +16886
Mitchell Harrison, +16886
Ricci Randanella, +16886
Opening Odds, Podium
Chase Sexton, -199
Cooper Webb, -194
Aaron Plessinger, -103
Ken Roczen, +146
Malcolm Stewart, +272
Justin Cooper, +306
Dylan Ferrandis, +392
Justin Barcia, +473
Logan Leitzel, +633
Justin Hill, +1086
Joey Savatgy, +1140
Shane McElrath, +1181
Dean Wilson, +1242
Christian Craig, +1274
Colt Nichols, +1347
Benny Bloss, +1525
Mitchell Oldenburg, +1957
Bubba Pauli, +2894
Mitchell Harrison, +3113
Kyle Chisholm, +3283
Kevin Moranz, +4530
Justin Starling, +4787
Tristan Lane, +5192
Ricci Randanella, +7080
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