Democrats score another big Senate recruiting win: From the Politics Desk
In today's edition, we dive into the implications of Sherrod Brown's decision to try for a Senate comeback in Ohio. Plus, Steve Kornacki makes sense of new polling data that shows Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot, but deeply unpopular with voters.
— Adam Wollner
Democrats score another big Senate recruiting win
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown plans to launch a comeback bid for Senate in Ohio, a major recruiting win for Democrats who need to catch every break they can in their uphill fight for the majority in the chamber.
Brown is viewed by Democrats as one of the few, if not the only, members of their party who could put the seat in the red-trending state in play next year. After serving three terms in the Senate, he lost re-election by 3.5 points last year as Donald Trump carried Ohio by 11 points. And the party in power typically faces headwinds in a midterm election.
If Brown wins the nomination, he would face GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to serve the remainder of Vice President JD Vance's term earlier this year.
Battleground recruits: The news comes just weeks after Democrats successfully convinced popular former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter the North Carolina Senate race. Democrats feel even better about the chances Cooper — who has won several statewide contests — has in a state Trump carried more narrowly (3 points) in 2024, particularly with incumbent Republican Thom Tillis declining to seek another term.
The biggest remaining question on the Senate map for Democrats is Maine. Alongside North Carolina, Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points, represents Democrats' best pickup opportunity. But longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins has proven difficult to unseat, winning her last race by 9 points. Democrats are holding out hope that Gov. Janet Mills would take her on, but she's yet to make a final decision.
A tough map: Even if Democrats manage to flip North Carolina and Maine, while holding battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, they'd still need to win two other Republican-held seats to take control of the Senate.
That's where GOP-leaning states like Ohio, Iowa and Texas come into play. There's a growing Democratic field in the Hawkeye State: Josh Turek, a state lawmaker and former Paralympian with two gold medals, is the latest entrant in the race for GOP Sen. Joni Ernst's seat, as Bridget Bowman reports.
And the redistricting fight has provided Democratic Senate contenders in Texas with an elevated platform, as Ben Kamisar and Andrew Arenge note. State Rep. James Talarico and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who are both considering bids for Republican Sen. John Cornyn's seat, have flooded the zone with digital ads and media appearances in recent weeks. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who is already running, has put redistricting at the center of his message on the trail.
The Republican DNA of these trio of states may ultimately be too much for Democrats to overcome. But if they continue to field strong recruits, they can at least make the races competitive and force Republicans to direct resources there they'd rather put to use elsewhere.
Trump endorsed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the race for governor over state Attorney General Chris Carr.
GOP Rep. Barry Moore is running to replace Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running next year for governor.
How Democrats are leading the generic ballot despite their weak image
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The Democratic Party is profoundly unpopular right now. The share of Americans who view it negatively has reached its highest level in decades and its overall image is notably worse than that of the Republican Party.
Our own NBC News poll spotted this trend early this year and recent surveys show it persisting, including one from CNBC last week that found that just 22% of Americans have a positive perception of the Democratic Party, compared to 55% negative. For the GOP, it was 36% positive and 46% negative.
And yet, the same CNBC poll also put Democrats ahead by five points on the generic congressional ballot, a key indicator as the 2026 midterm playing field takes shape. It raises the question: How could a party with such a dismal image not be getting blown out?
The answer has to do with how Democrats think about their own party. Unlike Republicans, who as a group hold an overwhelmingly positive view of the GOP, only a plurality of Democrats actually have a favorable view of their own party.
A majority of Democrats are either neutral or hostile to their own party. But, crucially, almost none of them are disillusioned in a way that would lead them to vote against the party next year. In fact, the CNBC poll finds that Democratic voters are slightly more united behind their own party when it comes to the generic ballot than Republicans are.
This indicates that hostility to President Donald Trump and the GOP remains the central motivating force for Democratic voters, more than enough to override any qualms they have about their own side. To break down the CNBC poll further, only 44% of those who prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress view the party favorably. By contrast, 79% of those who favor Republican control see the GOP positively.
This suggests that the frustrations of Democrats with the Democratic Party are mainly tactical and strategic in nature. As Trump's second terms began, our NBC News poll found that 65% of Democrats wanted their party to dig in and oppose Trump instead of seeking compromise — a reversal from the start of Trump's first term. Many Democratic voters seem to feel their party is simply not fighting Trump with sufficient energy or the right leaders.
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