Matthew Liberatore's velocity woes continue as Cardinals mull rotation options

New York Times

3 days ago

ST. LOUIS — Matthew Liberatore's first fastball of the fifth inning came out flat from his hand. He didn't have to turn around and check the radar gun; he knew from feel alone he had lost velocity. He did so anyway and saw his cutter clock in at just under 90 mph.
Frustration ensued. A quick hook followed.
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Liberatore had posted three perfect frames to kick off Tuesday's game against the Colorado Rockies. He then served up a two-run homer to Hunter Goodman in the fourth before coming out flat in the fifth. After a 10-pitch at-bat to Brenton Doyle resulted in a walk, Kyle Karros singled, ending Liberatore's night. The Cardinals were shut out by the Rockies 3-0, for the second time this season.
'I felt like the way I was rolling through the first three innings tonight, felt like I could have thrown the whole game,' Liberatore said. 'I feel bad that I keep putting it on the bullpen and they have to come in and pick me up. They've done a fantastic job of that, but that's not who I want to be.'
FINAL: Rockies 3, Cardinals 0. As many of you have pointed out, Colorado has shut out St. Louis twice this season. Colorado also has two total shut out wins this season. You do the math.
Michael McGreevy for the rubber match tomorrow, catch ya there.
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) August 13, 2025
Sustaining velocity has been an issue for Liberatore coming out of the All-Star break. The Cardinals skipped over his first start of the second half, citing the need for extra rest as Liberatore navigates his first full year as a major-league starter. He has not been able to record more than five innings since. Sustaining performance has been the focus over the past month, to the point that manager Oli Marmol declared Tuesday's start as an 'evaluation' point for the young southpaw and hinted a change in Liberatore's usage could be on the horizon.
'We're going to continue to closely monitor it,' Marmol said of Liberatore's velocity and command Tuesday afternoon. 'If it doesn't make sense to continue to have him go because there's a regression in his overall stuff, velocity, being able to hold it, then we'll make a decision on it.
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'He's recovering well in between starts. He's healthy and feeling strong. But it's a matter of being able to maintain it during his start. If anything points to that not being the case, then we'll make a decision.'
That decision won't come for at least another week, Marmol said. Liberatore will make his next start, but the evaluations will continue.
The reasons are twofold. Though the line score did not reflect improvement, Liberatore held his velocity longer than in his previous start. He topped out at 95 mph in the first inning and sat at 93-94 for the next two frames. His velocity started to slowly drip midway through the fourth inning, before dropping to 90-91 in the fifth. In his last outing, Liberatore started to decline around pitch No. 40. Tuesday, he made it to about pitch No. 65 before the drop became glaring.
'It all feels the same until (the ball) leaves my fingers,' Liberatore said. 'The best way I can describe it is it loses its crispness that it had at the beginning of the game. Physically, I don't feel like I'm doing anything different. I'm not thinking anything different. I don't think my mechanics are changing that drastically. It just doesn't feel the same when it leaves my fingertips.'
That there was progress Tuesday provides the team some optimism, but it doesn't alleviate Liberatore's vexation.
'It's something that I feel there's no precursor to it,' Liberatore said. 'I feel great, and then I go out for the fifth inning and turn around and (the velo) is not the same as it was the rest of the game. So, that part is definitely frustrating, but like I said before, I'm committed as ever to working as hard as I can to figure this out.'
'My process is as dialed in as it's ever been before,' he added. 'And I think that provides us a good foundation for us to tinker with things because we have a good feel on everything I'm doing and what it's costing me, whether it's helping or taking away from my ability to hold velo. I think the frustrating part is knowing that if you look at those first three innings where I was perfect and everything was working, the velo was there, and then I hit that wall. The frustrating part is that gap between those two and knowing what I'm capable of when I'm at my best.'
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Another reason the Cardinals will continue committing to Liberatore is how scarce their other options are. St. Louis has discussed a piggyback role, and it remains in play even with Liberatore on turn.
'You can piggyback,' Marmol said. 'You have (Kyle) Leahy — that gives you an option. There are different ways of approaching it where (Liberatore) stays in a routine, but you monitor it pretty closely.
'But that's just one option, and not one we've committed to in any way. It's just an option based on Leahy being stretched out more than most in that 'pen. We don't have to make that decision until we further evaluate Liberatore's start.'
That decision is looming, even if it lingers until September when active rosters expand. The Cardinals have discussed converting Leahy into a starting pitcher since spring training, citing his six-pitch arsenal and ability to get right- and left-handed hitters out. Leahy is not overly reliant on splits, with righties hitting .197 with a .515 OPS against him and lefties doing just a tick better with a .227 average and a .662 OPS. Still, those are numbers the Cardinals will gladly take.
The issue of stretching out Leahy as a piggyback option has little to do with his overall effectiveness in that role. When pitchers and catchers report next spring, Leahy will probably do so as a starter. The issue lies with taking the budding right-hander out of a bullpen that has already been stripped of three of its top relievers. With the departures of Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz at the deadline, Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake have upped the usage of several middle relievers, including Leahy. He has been the team's most effective multi-inning reliever from the right side, and placing him into a piggyback role severely limits other games in which he can be used.
The emergence of Matt Svanson could help with that. Svanson has impressed since being recalled in early July. Since July 4, Svanson owns a 2.30 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 15 2/3 innings, allowing just one walk and one home run. He was just as dominant Tuesday, notching three scoreless frames of one-hit ball with four strikeouts. Like Leahy, Svanson is capable of posting multiple innings. He's even more neutral with handedness: righties are hitting .164/.205/.288 against him, and lefties are nearly identical at .163/.283/.209.
Other lesser-known options are at least worthy of consideration. The Cardinals signed right-hander Aaron Wilkerson to a minor-league deal in mid-July as a depth piece. He has a 3.77 ERA across two teams (Triple-A Louisville and Memphis) with 117 innings pitched over 22 games. Righty Curtis Taylor has been quietly steady for Memphis after starting the season as a reliever. He has made 18 starts (25 total appearances) for the Redbirds with a 3.64 ERA and 94 strikeouts over 106 1/3 innings. Neither Taylor nor Wilkerson will overpower opponents, but they are at least capable of providing innings.
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There lies the most pressing concern within the Cardinals organization. The lack of viable starting pitching options, specifically regarding Triple-A depth, has been a season-long concern. To the organization's credit, it's done a sound job of maintaining its pitchers' health, especially given the rapidly rising number of arm injuries. The Cardinals also did the right thing by giving Liberatore a full run in the rotation, though they knew a drop-off in the second half was possible. However, St. Louis has once again found itself in a predicament due to its lack of availability, and it will again be on the major-league staff to configure how best to navigate that.
Right now, the Cardinals have determined that to be sticking with Liberatore, but expect that to change if his velocity woes don't.
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