Stakes rise in Russia-Ukraine war as Trump's deadline for Kremlin approaches
US President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff was expected in Moscow in the middle of this week, just before Trump's Friday deadline for the Kremlin to stop the killing or face potentially severe economic penalties from Washington.
Previous Trump promises, threats and cajoling have failed to yield results., and the stubborn diplomatic stalemate will be hard to clear away. Meanwhile, Ukraine is losing more territory on the front line, although there is no sign of a looming collapse of its defences.
Trump envoy is expected at the Kremlin
Witkoff was expected to land in the Russian capital on Wednesday or Thursday, according to Trump, following his trip to Israel and Gaza.
'They would like to see (Witkoff),' Trump said Sunday of the Russians. 'They've asked that he meet so we'll see what happens.'
Trump, exasperated that Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn't heeded his calls to stop bombing Ukrainian cities, a week ago moved up his ultimatum to impose additional sanctions on Russia as well as introduce secondary tariffs targeting countries that buy Russian oil, including China and India.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday that officials are happy to meet with Trump's envoy. 'We are always glad to see Mr Witkoff in Moscow,' he said. 'We consider (talks with Witkoff) important, substantive and very useful.'
Trump is not sure sanctions will work
Trump said Sunday that Russia has proved to be 'pretty good at avoiding sanctions.'
'They're wily characters,' he said of the Russians.
The Kremlin has insisted that international sanctions imposed since its February 2022 invasion of its neighbour have had a limited impact.
Ukraine insists the sanctions are taking their toll on Moscow's war machine and wants Western allies to ramp them up. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday urged the United States, Europe and other nations to impose stronger secondary sanctions on Moscow's energy, trade and banking sectors.
Trump's comments appeared to signal he doesn't have much hope that sanctions will force Putin's hand.
The secondary sanctions also complicate Washington's relations with China and India, who stand accused of helping finance Russia's war effort by buying its oil.
Since taking office in January, Trump has found that stopping the war is harder than he perhaps imagined.
Senior American officials have warned that the US could walk away from the conflict if peace efforts make no progress.
Putin shows no signs of making concessions
The diplomatic atmosphere has become more heated as Trump's deadline approaches.
Putin announced last Friday that Russia's new hypersonic missile, the Oreshnik, has entered service.
The Russian leader has hailed its capabilities, saying its multiple warheads that plunge to a target at speeds of up to Mach 10 cannot be intercepted. They are so powerful, he said, that the use of several of them in one conventional strike could be as devastating as a nuclear attack.
Also, one of Putin's top lieutenants warned that the Ukraine war could nudge Russia and the US into armed conflict.
Trump responded to what he called the 'highly provocative statements' by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev by ordering the repositioning of two US nuclear submarines.
Putin has repeated the same message throughout the war: He will only accept a settlement on his terms and will keep fighting until they're met.
The war is killing thousands of troops and civilians
Russia's relentless pounding of urban areas behind the front line have killed more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, according to the United Nations. It has pushed on with that tactic despite Trump's public calls for it to stop over the past three months.
On the 1,000-kilometre front line, Russia's bigger army has made slow and costly progress. It is carrying out a sustained operation to take the eastern city of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub whose fall could open the way for a deeper drive into Ukraine.
Ukraine has developed technology that has allowed it to launch long-range drone attacks deep inside Russia. In its latest strike it hit an oil depot near Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi, starting a major fire.
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Political challenges Even before the new government led by the coalition between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) assumed office, Germany had agreed on a €500 billion budget to be spent on civilian, climate, economic and defence needs. This special budget is over and above Germany's annual budget. For sectors like infrastructure and defence spending, Germany also exempted the conservative 'debt brake' that only allowed it to borrow 0.35% of its GDP. 'The lifting of the debt brake allows the German government to balance defence spending with other forms of spending when it comes to lifting the economy, improving domestic infrastructure and so on. In the ruling coalition, the CDU also wants to reform social spending and lower expenditure, as they argue that the German government is spending too much money. For Social Democrats, that's not in their interest. This is the key tension,' said Mr. Balbon. 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'Given German history, there's an inherent criticism of militarisation and spending on military purposes as opposed to spending on social benefits, childcare, rent and so on. It will be important for defence planners and the industry representatives to get this mix right,' said Mr. Keller. Neighbours perception Given Germany's history, especially in the Second World War, it is generally wary of taking any leadership position within Europe. When it comes to Ukraine, Germany has been the second-largest supporter, after the US, in terms of weapons and aid. Germany's increased spending isn't scaring its neighbours but is being welcomed, noted Mr. Keller. 'Historically difficult neighbours, such as the Baltic countries, Poland, and the Czech Republic, feel that Germany is finally living up to its responsibility. It has prompted other wealthy EU countries, such as France, to increase their own defence spending,' said Mr. Keller. Mr. Balbon concurs. 'The predominant fear in Europe and Germany is that at some point in the future, Russia will attack the Baltic countries. It's not so much a fear of massive on-ground invasion, but that Russia will try out some smaller level attack to see how NATO responds – whether it will trigger Article 5 or which members will come to help,' said Mr. Balbon. Article 5 is a cornerstone of NATO, which states that an armed attack against any one NATO member is an attack against all. Meaning if any NATO member is attacked, other members are obligated to assist by 'such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force'. At the recent NATO Summit in The Hague on June 24-25, all 32 member countries agreed to increase their defence spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035. Germany now has a permanent brigade (to have 5,000 troops by 2027) in Lithuania, which is one of the three Baltic countries bordering Russia. Estonia and Latvia are also expected to get a European multinational battlegroup presence. Mr. Keller notes that there are no guarantees that all NATO members would fulfil the 5% target, given past record when many countries failed to fulfil the 2% target. 'Domestic political pressure and economic reasons may cause individual countries to lag behind. That should not happen, and it is the responsibility of wealthy countries to lead by example. This is why it is important for Germany to fulfil its obligations. There is a shared perception among the NATO members that they are stronger united,' said Mr. Keller. (Nimish Sawant is an independent journalist based in Berlin)
