Ex-Ambassador Tarumi: Realism Over Empty Mantras on China Policy
Candidates in the July 20 Upper House election are engaged in an intense war of words. Members of the ruling coalition are likely to play key roles in setting policies that involve vital national interests. The Sankei Shimbun sat down with former Ambassador Hideo Tarumi to hear insights on where policy toward China fits into this setting.
Now a professor at Ritsumeikan University, Tarumi is a former ambassador to China who spent his career involved with Tokyo's policy toward its giant neighbor at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In June, he published his memoir, Secret Records of Japan-China Diplomacy: The Struggles of Tarumi Hideo, Ambassador to China.
During the interview, Tarumi said, "Members of the Diet, go to China." Acknowledging that some critics see such visits as pro-China, the former ambassador, who Japanese media have described as "the man China fears most," stressed the essence of diplomacy.
Excerpts from Ambassador Tarumi's statements in the interview follow.
Not Kowtowing to China
Last spring, at the invitation of Toshimitsu Endo, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and Ken Saito, former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, I gave a lecture to about 100 lawmakers at the LDP's study group.
There, I emphasized the following: "Since I'm no longer a bureaucrat, I'll speak candidly. You are all national lawmakers. I understand that local legislators may visit Taiwan for sister city exchanges, but when it comes to national diplomacy, the most important countries are the United States and China. The US is a given — but why aren't you visiting China?"
Liu Jianchao, head of the CCP's International Liaison Department (second from the right in the front row), and Toshihiro Nikai, Chairman of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians' Union (third from the right in the front row), pose for a commemorative photo, August 27, 2024, in Beijing (pool photo).
I wasn't saying to be "pro-China" or kowtow to them. You should go to China, carefully assess the situation on the ground, and communicate Japan's position clearly. That's what I did as an ambassador. If all you do is shout "China is unacceptable" from afar in Japan, nothing will change there, and our message won't get through. Is that really in Japan's national interest? You need to go there and say what must be said, face to face.
Be More 'Strategic'
We need to adopt a more strategic mindset than a simplistic one. Of course, if the purpose of a visit is simply to accept Beijing's claims uncritically, then it would be better not to go. But by the same token, visiting Taiwan solely as an expression of anti-China sentiment also limits the value of the visit.
What are the challenges facing Taiwan? According to a report by the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan, the most pressing concern today is not geopolitical risk or the threat of military invasion. It's energy shortages. If China were to impose a maritime blockade, Taiwan's energy imports would be severely disrupted.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen presents Hideo Tarumi, former Japanese Ambassador to China, with the Order of Brilliant Star with Grand Cordon in May 2024. (©Office of the President, ROC)
Moreover, Taiwan's most vital industry, semiconductors, requires vast amounts of electricity. Yet the country has shut down its nuclear power plants. This is not the decision of a responsible government. Even if it's uncomfortable for Taiwan to hear, it's essential to have frank and thorough discussions about strengthening resilience, including in the energy sector.
[Author's note: Since the Democratic Progressive Party came to power, Taiwan has pursued a policy of phasing out nuclear energy. On May 17, the country shut down its last operating reactor: Unit 2 of the Taiwan Power Company's Third Nuclear Power Plant in Pingtung County, southern Taiwan. Nuclear power, which once supplied roughly half of Taiwan's electricity 40 years ago, has now fallen to zero.]
Rethinking Ties with China
Japan's diplomacy toward China has traditionally been led by politicians who cultivated close personal relationships with Beijing leaders like Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka.
Toshihiro Nikai, chairman of the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship League, meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on August 28, 2024. (Pool photo)
Toshihiro Nikai, the former secretary-general of the LDP who carried on this tradition, retired from politics in the October 2024 House of Representatives election. At present, virtually no Japanese politicians have inherited these channels of communication. And on the Chinese side as well, there are no longer leaders who engage in diplomacy with Japan based on personal relationships and mutual trust.
The era when we could rely on a single figure to manage relations with China is over. Mr Nikai was certainly pro-China, but within the LDP, there were also many lawmakers with a hardline stance toward China. Maintaining that internal balance was crucial. Now is the time to return to first principles: to ask what truly serves the national interest and to strategically rebuild our diplomacy with China.
Abe's Strategic Diplomacy
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe exemplified this approach. He engaged with China based on a clear-eyed focus on our national interest. Abe was originally very pro-Taiwan, but he knew how to separate his personal views from his public role.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping shaking hands in November 2017, during the APEC Summit in Vietnam. (©Prime Minister's Office)
When he first became prime minister in 2006, China viewed him as even more hawkish than Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. At the time, Abe prioritized diplomacy with China, but he needed a magic word to get Beijing to reengage. That word was "strategy." By proposing a "strategic mutually beneficial relationship," Abe aimed to expand the shared interests between Japan and China.
Abe understood the government's official position and consistently spoke and acted based on national interests. If he had simply declared, "I'm pro-Taiwan and anti-China," his diplomacy would not have lasted long.
Ishiba's Aimless Policy
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba also uses the phrase "strategic mutually beneficial relationship." However, it's becoming increasingly ineffective. Repeating a mantra a hundred or even a thousand times means nothing if there is no substance behind it. That substance, what truly matters, is strategy.
Immediately after taking office in October 2024, Prime Minister Ishiba expressed a strong desire to visit China. But his enthusiasm is now said to be waning. Initially, the Chinese government saw the Ishiba administration as the emergence of a long-awaited pro-China government. Yet it's now reassessing that view.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba answers reporters' questions after he meets with US President Donald Trump. Minister in Charge of Economic Revitalization, Ryosei Akazawa, is on the left.
June 16, Kananaskis, western Canada (Pool photo / Kyodo News).
In February, Prime Minister Ishiba issued a joint statement concerning Taiwan at the Japan-US summit, declaring, "We oppose any attempt to change the status quo by force or coercion."
The core of the joint statement is said to have been drafted under Japan's leadership. From Beijing's perspective, there was likely a feeling of "Ishiba, you too?" Even if Prime Minister Ishiba hoped to please both China and the US, diplomacy isn't that simple. Without a coherent strategy, China will see through it with ease.
Tensions Ahead
I'm concerned that this summer will be a very tense one for Japan. In China, a film titled 731 is set to be released on July 31. It focuses on Unit 731 of the Kwantung Army, which is argued to have conducted biological warfare research.
This will be followed by a military parade on September 3 to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan. And then there is the anniversary of September 18, the date of the Mukden Incident that triggered the Manchurian Incident.
Considering the current state of Japan-US and US-China relations, there is a chance that President Donald Trump might attend the military parade. If that occurs, it could be seen as "Japan facing another defeat." Such a scenario would be very serious.
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Author: Shimpei Okuhara, The Sankei Shimbun
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