Brexit revelations: A mandate for Labour to rejoin the EU?

The Herald Scotland

6 hours ago

This is, of course, no surprise, given Brexit was always the most foolish of ideas. And the damage from the particularly ill-judged Tory version involving loss of free movement of people between the UK and European Economic Area and the ending of frictionless trade with the country's largest trading partner was inevitably going to be enormous.
YouGov observed as it published its latest poll on Brexit that Monday June 23 marked nine years since the UK voted to leave the European Union.
It added: 'YouGov polling has long since shown that the public are 'Bregretful' about that outcome, with our latest survey showing 56% think it was wrong for Britain to vote to leave the EU.'
There might still be the sounds of 'non, je ne Bregret rien' from those who voted for the folly. And some of those who led voters down the Brexit path continue to bump their gums rather noisily.
However, the quieter majority clearly knows what is actually going on.
YouGov's latest findings show, as its polls have for years now, a clear majority believes the UK was wrong to leave the EU. Only 31% now think the UK was right to leave.
Interestingly, 68% of Leave voters still believe they made the right choice. Having said that, that is a long, long way away from 100%, signalling the penny has dropped for many.
Most people in the UK want to see the country return to the EU - 56%. This is way ahead of the 34% opposing such a move, with 10% of those polled saying they do not know.
While there is a clear majority for rejoining the EU, the proportion of Leave voters supporting the UK going back into the bloc is 24%. However, although such a move is desirable to only a minority of Leavers, it is surely interesting that nearly one-quarter of the Brexit voters of 2016 would support the UK being a member of the EU once again.
For Tory and Reform UK voters, the respective proportions supporting the UK rejoining the EU are 28% and 16%. The first of these figures is perhaps surprisingly low, although it maybe reflects the extent to which the Conservative Party has been taken over by the Brexiters. The second seems surprisingly high given the policy stances of Reform UK and the fact that its leader, Nigel Farage, has been such a poster boy of the Brexit camp.
One demoralising aspect of the YouGov poll is that - while there are clear overall majorities believing the UK was wrong to leave the EU and supporting a return to the bloc - the proportion thinking that rejoining is the right priority at the current time is outweighed by that which considers such a move to be the wrong priority at the moment.
YouGov observed: 'While most Britons may support a return to the EU, they are less convinced that it is a priority at the current time. More than four in ten (44%) said attempting a 'Breturn' would be the wrong priority for the Government at the current time when balanced against the other issues the UK currently faces, compared to 37% who believe it would be the right priority.'
That said, the breakdown on this is interesting. And it is perhaps one that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer should reflect on, given that his moves to rebuild ties with the EU are dispiritingly limited in scope, with Labour's 'red lines' embracing the key elements of the Tory hard Brexit: loss of frictionless trade and the ending of free movement.
The most eye-catching aspect of the breakdown is that most people who voted for the Labour Government at last July's general election believe that rejoining the EU is the right priority at the current time.
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YouGov noted: 'The majority of those who elected this Government last year say that rejoining the EU is the right priority (56%), as do similar numbers of Green (59%) and Lib Dem (55%) voters. Only between 25% [and] 30% of these voters think attempting to rejoin is the wrong priority at the current time.'
It could easily be argued that Sir Keir, if he so wished, could take this majority view among those who voted for Labour at the last election as a mandate to pursue rejoining the EU, especially given there is overall support for such a move in the UK.
What is more, the fact that 56% of those who voted for Labour last July consider rejoining the EU to be the right priority, right now, raises the question of why Sir Keir and his colleagues seem hell-bent on going along with the views of the minority in their policymaking. Labour has made it clear that it is absolutely intent on maintaining its 'red lines', a truly lamentable state of affairs.
Another point worth making is that sometimes, when people are asked about priorities in polls generally, they seem to treat Brexit and the economy as two different things (albeit this is sometimes to do with the way the surveys are framed).
It is a surreal situation.
After all, rejoining the EU or even the European single market would give the UK a huge economic boost at a time when everyone seems to be getting in a lather about minuscule rises in long-term annual economic output from this or that trade deal. The recent free trade deal with India is a case in point, with Labour making something of a song and dance about a 0.1% boost to annual gross domestic product in the long run.
You would not imagine people are going to feel that kind of boost in their living standards, which have come under so much pressure since the global financial crisis, with Brexit among the key factors in this misery.
In stark contrast, if the economy and living standards and so forth are the priorities of people in the UK, then simple arithmetic and logic should dictate that rejoining the EU or at least the single market should also most definitely be a priority for them.
Office for Budget Responsibility chairman Richard Hughes said in spring 2023 of Brexit's effect: 'We think that in the long run it reduces our overall output by around 4% compared with had we remained in the EU.'
That loss is 40 times the forecast boost from the India trade deal.
Given the noise from the Labour Government about the likes of the India trade deal, triumphalism which has in some ways been so reminiscent of the Tory Brexiters, the electorate could be forgiven for not realising just how colossally greater would be the boost from rejoining the single market or EU in economic terms. And it is not just about GDP – a more prosperous economy would obviously boost living standards after years in which growth has proven very hard to come by indeed.
Sir Keir should surely take a long look at his own priorities, and take on board the views about the EU among the majority who voted him in, rather than paying disproportionate attention to, or pandering to, that rather noisy, entrenched Brexit camp.