‘Don't Bet the Farm,' Says Analyst About Quantum Computing Stock (QUBT)

Business Insider

20-06-2025

Just months after suggesting that the widespread adoption of quantum computing was still '15 to 20 years away,' Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang offered a much more optimistic outlook, sparking a rally in speculative quantum stocks, such as Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT). The tech pioneer is up 8.5% so far this week, with bullish sentiment at its peak.
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However, a deeper look reveals significant concerns about QUBT's financial position. And while the industry is making progress, scaling quantum systems to tackle real-world problems remains a massive challenge, particularly for a company of QUBT's size. Despite the broader enthusiasm for 'lifting all boats' in the sector, I remain bearish on QUBT.
The Nvidia Effect: A CEO's Shifting Narrative
Being the CEO of a major tech company comes with significant influence—something Nvidia's Jensen Huang demonstrated at the GTC Paris developer conference when he declared that 'quantum computing is reaching an inflection point.' While his remarks centered on Nvidia's own innovations—like CUDA-Q, which aims to integrate quantum capabilities with classical systems—his optimism could have ripple effects across the sector. Nvidia backed its words with action in March 2025 by launching a new quantum computing research lab in Boston, reinforcing its leadership in the space.
Huang's bullish tone may inspire increased venture capital and R&D investment across the quantum ecosystem. However, skepticism persists. Many still view practical quantum applications as decades away, with the industry struggling to define clear, real-world use cases that outperform traditional supercomputers. Without a breakthrough and tangible return on investment (ROI), quantum computing remains a tough sell to potential customers seeking immediate, measurable benefits.
Quantum Computing's Niche Technology
Quantum Computing Inc. specializes in photonic, or light-based, quantum solutions, developing Quantum Processing Units (QPUs) designed to operate at room temperature and low power, features that could make the technology more accessible and cost-effective. However, the company's focus remains on niche applications, such as remote sensing and computational chemistry, which limits its current market reach.
While progress is being made in identifying use cases where quantum systems may outperform classical supercomputers, practical, scalable, and commercially viable applications are still emerging. The technology faces persistent challenges, including qubit fragility, high error rates, and scalability limitations. These machines are highly specialized and complex, suited for addressing targeted, advanced problems, but are not yet ready for broad commercial deployment.
Financials Tell A Different Story
Quantum Computing's first-quarter 2025 earnings highlight just how early-stage its business remains. The company reported revenue of only $39,000—roughly equivalent to the median U.S. individual income—while operating expenses climbed to $8.3 million. A $23.6 million non-cash gain from the mark-to-market revaluation of its warrant liability resulted in a reported net income of $17 million. However, this masks the company's ongoing operational losses.
On the operational front, the company completed construction of its Quantum Photonic Chip Foundry. It announced new partnerships, including a contract with NASA's Langley Research Center—a sign of growing institutional interest despite modest commercial traction so far.
QUBT's Speculative Valuation
Quantum Computing's ~$3 billion market cap, despite minimal revenue, highlights an apparent disconnect from fundamentals and suggests the stock is driven largely by speculation. While the company holds $166 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing it with some runway to develop its technology, its R&D budget is modest compared to that of deep-pocketed rivals like IBM, Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
Importantly, this cash position was built primarily through dilutive stock offerings and private placements, underscoring its heavy reliance on external funding. Given these constraints, it's difficult to envision a near-term path where Quantum Computing scales its niche technology into a broadly commercial product in a way that meaningfully rewards shareholders.
Is QUBT Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Reflecting its speculative nature, Quantum Computing's analyst coverage is limited. Its Moderate Buy consensus rating is based on one Buy recommendation in the past three months. Its average price target of $14.00 implies a downside potential of ~27% over the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, TipRanks AI assigns QUBT a Neutral rating and a price target of $22. It notes that Quantum Computing's strong balance sheet and Qatalyst software positions it favorably amid hardware advances and increasing demand. However, it also points out that QUBT sports a high valuation, especially in light of ongoing losses and minimal revenues.
QUBT Remains a High-Risk Bet in a Competitive Field
While quantum computing as a whole may be approaching an 'inflection point,' the outlook for pure-play firms like Quantum Computing Inc. remains highly speculative. With minimal revenue, the company is still far from its own inflection point, where its products gain broad commercial viability. Reaching that stage will likely require scientific breakthroughs and significant R&D investment, which Quantum Computing may struggle to match relative to well-funded giants like IBM.
That said, growing industry momentum is a clear tailwind. Rising interest in the sector could lead to increased funding, larger contracts, and a stronger push toward practical applications. Quantum Computing's unique focus on room-temperature, low-power photonic quantum systems, along with its early, albeit modest, commercial traction, may appeal to risk-tolerant, long-term investors.
Personally, I remain highly cautious. The company's weak financial performance, lofty valuation, and limited ability to compete with larger players make its long-term investment case difficult to justify at this stage.