Markets are absolutely booming under Trump. They're about to face a huge test

CNN

3 days ago

Six months into President Donald Trump's second term, a quick glance at the stock market might offer a reassuring picture: The S&P 500 just closed above 6,300 points for the first time ever and has notched eight record highs in the past month.
If you look at markets halfway into the year, it might be not be apparent that there has been unprecedented trade turmoil, conflict in the Middle East and relentless attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence.
The stock market and bitcoin have soared to record highs, while bonds have resumed a steady rally and volatility in oil prices has subsided. Global markets so far this year have been remarkably resilient.
The calm mood on Wall Street is an extraordinary change from early April, when the S&P 500 hit its lowest level in over a year and was on the precipice of a bear market after Trump unveiled his initial 'Liberation Day' tariffs.
'Perhaps the move by US stocks off the early-April lows is emblematic of the age-old adage about bull markets often climbing a 'wall of worry,'' Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon, investment strategists at Charles Schwab, said in a note. 'There is no shortage of things to worry about; but that's the wall markets often climb.'
Markets are floating near record highs despite underlying tariff uncertainty. While investors have begun to shrug off a myriad of concerns, US stocks are trading at historically expensive valuations as Trump's self-imposed August 1 tariff deadline approaches. As Trump presses forward with his trade war, markets' momentum will face a tariff test.
'What has held stocks aloft … is the premise that whatever tariff increases come on August 1, they will not be permanent,' Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note.
'The prospect that 'deals' will be struck thereafter remains a factor, we believe, in keeping traders from selling stocks more aggressively,' Wizman said.
Jeff Buchbinder and Adam Turnquist, strategists at LPL Financial, said in a note that the S&P 500's 'unusually sharp and swift 'V-shaped recovery'' from its low point in early April was 'one of the most powerful post-correction rebounds in stock market history.'
The ferocity of the market's recovery has raised questions about whether it is supported by fundamentals — or if underlying weakness could arise.
While the market experienced bouts of enormous volatility in recent months, stocks continue to push higher. The S&P 500 is up 5.2% since Trump took office.
Trump has acknowledged the market's rebound. The president earlier this month told NBC News that 'tariffs have been very well received,' noting that the 'stock market hit a new high.'
The 'softening' of initial tariff announcements has 'removed the worst-case scenarios' for outlooks for economic growth and inflation, investors at BlackRock said in a note, which has supported the market's rally.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers trading platform, told CNN that the rally has also been driven by momentum and a fear of missing out.
'Ever since the president's about-face in early April that turned the market around, a lot of money has been made basically by investors assuming that these tariffs will be postponed, renegotiated or otherwise watered down,' Sosnick said. 'And if there's a trade that works very well for people over a long period of time, they're going to keep doing it.'
Meanwhile, bitcoin last week surged to a record high above $123,000 as Republicans in Congress pressed forward with landmark legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies.
Economists at the consultancy Capital Economics said in a note that they think the 'US economy will weather the global trade war,' enabling the S&P 500 to rise further. However, they said, Trump's 'unpredictable approach' to trade and attacks on the Fed's independence could 'trigger' a downturn in stocks.
'The widespread assumption among market participants still appears to be that the president will not follow through on threats to raise tariffs much further and that Chair Powell will remain in place, but that may prove too optimistic,' they said.
The S&P 500 has not posted a gain or loss of more than 1% since June 24. It's a sign that momentum has slowed down. Bitcoin traded around $119,000 as of Tuesday.
Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, said she thinks markets might be complacent about potential risks, given stocks are historically expensive.
While stocks and bonds have emerged relatively unscathed, one outlier is the US dollar, which has continued a precipitous decline. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against six major foreign currencies, is down almost 11% since Trump took office.
Gold and silver, meanwhile, have continued to serve as hedges against Trump's trade uncertainty. The yellow and silver precious metals have soared 30% and 35% this year, respectively.
The rally in recent months has been driven by retail investors, or individuals buying their own stocks, as opposed to Wall Street institutions, according to Venu Krishna, an equity strategist at Barclays.
'Re-risking by institutional money remains muted, making it likely that retail investors were at the helm for the latest leg of the rally,' Krishna said. He estimates retail investors poured more than $50 billion into global stocks across the past month.
Investors who bought the dip when markets dropped in April have been rewarded with an extraordinary march to fresh highs. The S&P 500 has gained almost 27% since its low point in April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has soared almost 37%.
The smaller Nasdaq 100 has gone 62 days without crossing below its 20-day moving average, which is the second longest streak on record after a 77-day streak in 1999, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief markets technician at investment firm BTIG.
And Wall Street money that has been on the sidelines has been creeping back into the market. A survey of global fund managers in July by Bank of America showed the biggest surge in 'risk appetite' on record. The survey also showed the most bullish sentiment since February.
Ethan Harris, a market watcher and former economist at Bank of America, said in a post on LinkedIn that Trump's tariff announcements could be characterized as 'Trump always tries again,' as opposed to 'Trump always chickens out.'
'His aggressive announcements are a way to test what he can 'get away with,'' Harris said. 'Hence the steady flow of new threats, partial retreats and then more threats.'
As stocks hold near record highs as Trump's trade deadline approaches, it remains to be seen whether markets will push back on the president's plan to disrupt international trade.
'The bond vigilantes may or may not have started to make a comeback this year,' Harris said. 'Will the stock market become the trade war vigilante or remain complacent?'