Handicapping the Browns' starting QB race, with some long odds for Shedeur Sanders

Yahoo

3 hours ago

The Cleveland Browns are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. They have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL.
Yet, we'll all be watching their quarterback competition.
The Browns are one of the few NFL teams that will go into training camp without a set QB1, and they have four players vying for the job. Of course, one of those contenders is one of the most-watched rookies in the NFL, Shedeur Sanders. He's probably the highest profile fifth-round rookie we've ever seen after his draft slide.
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Here's a look at who has the best chance to be the Browns' Week 1 starter as their four-way race takes shape in training camp and preseason:
Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders is one of four players battling for the team's starting job. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The co-favorite: Joe Flacco
The Browns brought back Flacco, who was the 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year when he helped Cleveland to the playoffs, but his deal is worth just $4.25 million with more possible in incentives. That's not starting quarterback money, and the Browns wouldn't feel obligated to start a 40-year-old quarterback in Week 1. However. Flacco is the one QB on the roster with a positive NFL track record, and there are probably still good feelings about how well he played in Cleveland two seasons ago. Flacco wasn't good with the Indianapolis Colts last season and over the last 10 seasons Flacco has rarely played at an above average level, other than that short stretch with the Browns two seasons ago. It doesn't seem wise for a team with such little expectations to start a 40-year-old quarterback, but the Browns might want to see if Flacco can recapture his 2023 magic to start the season before making a change.
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Chance of starting: 50 percent
The other co-favorite: Kenny Pickett
The Browns' early schedule is brutal. Their first six opponents are the Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings and Steelers. It doesn't seem like the type of gauntlet the Browns want to expose a rookie starter to. Pickett was an interesting acquisition for the Browns. He cost very little (a fifth-round pick and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson) and was a first-round pick just three seasons ago. Pickett didn't work out with the Pittsburgh Steelers but he did have a few flashes of solid play as a rookie. A recent theme in the NFL has been quarterbacks who were given up on too soon having a career revival with another team (Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield) and Pickett is just 27 years old. Pickett also was taking the first-team reps during the most recent OTAs. It would make far more sense for a rebuilding team to start Pickett over a 40-year-old Flacco, but Pickett would have to earn that.
Chance of starting: 40 percent
1st rookie up: Dillon Gabriel
The notion that draft position doesn't matter is not exactly true. Yes, if Shedeur Sanders definitively outplays Gabriel in August then the Browns coaching staff could go into the season with Sanders over Gabriel on the depth chart. But here's why draft position matters, at least this early in the careers of Gabriel and Sanders: The Browns clearly liked Gabriel better. They drafted the productive yet undersized Oregon quarterback two rounds and 50 picks before Sanders. That's a big difference. A third-round pick, 94th overall, shows how much the Browns valued Gabriel in the draft. While Gabriel has been entirely overlooked due to the attention paid to his famous rookie teammate, Cleveland clearly thought he was the better quarterback on draft weekend. Still, do they want to start a third-round rookie on opening day and against their first six opponents who could all be playoff teams? Probably not. The real question isn't which rookie will start Week 1, because it seems unlikely either beats out Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett, but which rookie gets the first shot when the Browns inevitably make a midseason change and want to try out one of their rookies. Gabriel will get a fraction of the attention that Sanders will get, but Sanders has to beat Gabriel in practices and preseason games to get ahead of him on the depth chart.
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Chance of starting: 9 percent
Long shot (at least for Week 1): Shedeur Sanders
How many times in NFL history has a quarterback come into training camp as the fourth-string option and won a starting job by Week 1? That's virtually unheard of. And it's practically inconceivable that a fifth-round rookie who starts camp as the QB4 ends up starting on opening day. In Sanders' case it can't be totally ruled out because he isn't a normal fifth-round rookie quarterback, reports on him from Browns OTAs have been positive and the competition isn't that strong. But if Sanders ends up taking the first snaps of the season, it would be one of the wildest training camp/preseason stories we've seen in a long time. Even if Sanders is fantastic in August, the same concerns about throwing a rookie to the wolves in that early-season gauntlet still apply. The Browns presumably don't want to set up either rookie to fail early in the season. Sanders could end up starting at some point late in his rookie season, because the Browns seem like a team that could end up starting four different quarterbacks in a rough season. But make no mistake, Sanders has a long way to go before he gets on the field for the Browns.
Chance of starting: 1 percent