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0.5pc appreciation

0.5pc appreciation

KARACHI: Rupee gained against the US dollar in the inter-bank market as it appreciated by Rs1.42 or 0.50% during the previous week.
The local unit closed at 283.45, against 284.87 it had closed the week earlier against the greenback, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
The week-on-week gain was 93-week high, AKD Securities said, as a reported crackdown against currency smugglers helped the rupee recover against the dollar.
The central bank will continue to build its dollar stockpile but at a slower pace without putting undue pressure on the rupee, according to Citigroup Inc., Bloomberg reported.
The foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP decreased by $69 million during the week ending July 18, 2025, as the country made scheduled external debt repayments.
According to SBP data, the central bank's reserves fell to $14.46 billion, down from $14.53 billion recorded a week earlier.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif decided to continue the remittance incentive scheme, directing the Ministry of Finance to immediately release funds on a priority basis for the Workers' Remittances Incentive Scheme.
Open-market rates
In the open market, the PKR gained 1.91 rupee for buying and 2.05 rupees for selling against USD, closing at 285.46 and 286.55, respectively.
Against Euro, the PKR gained 67 paise for buying and 1.91 rupee for selling, closing at 334.25 and 336.36, respectively.
Against UAE Dirham, the PKR gained 99 paise for buying and 1.22 rupee for selling, closing at 77.53 and 78.00, respectively.
Against Saudi Riyal, the PKR gained 1.06 rupee for buying and 1.05 rupee for selling, closing at 75.75 and 76.30, respectively.
=========================================
THE RUPEE
=========================================
Weekly inter-bank market rates for dollar
=========================================
Bid Close Rs. 283.45
Offer Close Rs. 283.65
Bid Open Rs. 284.46
Offer Open Rs. 284.65
=========================================
Weekly open-market rates for dollar
=========================================
Bid Close Rs. 285.46
Offer Close Rs. 286.55
Bid Open Rs. 286.35
Offer Open Rs. 287.50
=========================================
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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Time to keep rates unchanged
Time to keep rates unchanged

Express Tribune

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Time to keep rates unchanged

Pakistan's real long-term growth won't come from slashing rates prematurely; it will come from shifting the engine of growth towards productivity, not consumption. Photo: file Listen to article The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on July 30, and all eyes will be on whether it cuts interest rates again or chooses to hold. In my view — as an analyst tracking macroeconomic and capital market signals closely — no change is warranted at this point. Pakistan has already seen a dramatic reversal in policy rates — from a staggering 22% to a relatively benign 11% as of May 2025. That's not just a rate cut; that's a full-blown pivot. While this brings welcome relief to borrowers and a much-needed growth stimulus, macroeconomics doesn't respond overnight. A monetary easing of this magnitude usually takes two to three quarters to trickle into the real economy. A premature cut now would be like offering dessert before the main course has even been served. Let's not overfeed an economy still digesting the last policy meal. The YoY inflation dip into the low-to-mid 3% range in recent months has largely been driven by the base effect, not necessarily a fundamental deceleration. With energy tariff adjustments, expected global commodity swings, and reduction in remittance incentives, inflation is likely to re-enter the 7-9% band by year-end. SBP's long-term inflation target band of 5-7% is admirable, but it must also guard real interest rates — ideally 3-5% positive — to sustain current account balance, contain imports, and maintain currency stability. History has shown that dipping below this zone leads to overheating, demand-pull inflation, and pressure on external buffers. We can't afford to repeat that cycle again. Don't light the fuse in year three SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad has repeatedly spoken about avoiding the boom-and-bust mistakes of the past — and he's right. The third year of any macro stabilisation programme is the most vulnerable: the temptation to cut too early is strongest, the political cycle begins to heat up, and the reserves appear deceptively comfortable. But here's the catch — Pakistan's FX reserves, while improved, are still largely propped up by bilateral rollovers, multilateral support, and deferred repayments. This is not the time to fire the bazooka. Instead, it's time to keep a measured hand on the lever, especially as tariff rationalisation under the new National Tariff Policy (NTP 2025-30) continues to lower energy costs for export-oriented industries. Cheaper electricity and gas — if passed on to the right sectors like IT, mining, value-added agriculture, light manufacturing and services — can help Pakistan grow its exports, climb global supply chains, and attract long-term FDI. Let exports earn the right to cut rates. Let Moody's and S&P reward discipline with credit upgrades. Let credit default swap spreads tighten, PIA and ZTBL get privatised, and DISCOs become financially viable. That's when we'll have truly earned macroeconomic space for deeper cuts. Remittance risk: the sleeping volcano Another red flag that must not be ignored is the government's rollback of incentives on incremental remittances — a move that could seriously dent the current account. The Rs200 billion ($700 million) subsidy in previous years catalysed nearly $8 billion in incremental inflows — a 10x multiplier by some measures. Removing this carrot risks not just a slowdown in remittances but also a hit to FX reserves and rupee stability. If remittances stall, and imports rise as expected (especially due to reduced duties on used cars and improved cotton harvest conditions), we could see import bills swell by 15-20% over the next two years, or $9-12 billion higher by FY27. Even with gradual 3-4% annual rupee depreciation, strong export growth and a 1-2% current account deficit might be manageable – but only if we resist the urge to cut early. Better tools than rate cuts Instead of cutting rates broadly, the SBP should fine-tune credit where it's needed most: a) Increase auto financing limits to support local manufacturers threatened by rising used car imports. b) Expand low-cost housing schemes to revive construction and employment. c) Enhance subsidised student and SME loans, especially in high-impact sectors like IT, logistics, and value-added exports. d) Scale up green financing tools, particularly EV loans, solar leasing, and youth/agribusiness schemes under PM's programmes. These targeted tools are far more effective than blunt rate cuts, and crucially, they don't unleash import-led growth. Time to hold Pakistan's real long-term growth won't come from slashing rates prematurely. It will come from shifting the engine of growth towards productivity, not consumption. That means: Strengthening local linkages in mining and agricultural exports; promoting value-added manufacturing with predictable energy and logistics policies; deepening integration into global IT and services value chains; and clearing fiscal clutter, like privatising loss-making state enterprises, to finally create room for sustainable interest rate compression. In the end, monetary policy is not a magic wand. It's a signal. And right now, the best signal SBP can send to global investors, credit agencies, and Pakistanis alike is stability, prudence, and patience. Because when you're walking a tightrope, the smartest thing you can do — is not jump. The writer is an independent economic analyst

A 100bps cut in policy rate on the cards?
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A 100bps cut in policy rate on the cards?

Following a recent visit to the Federal Reserve to inspect a renovation project, the tension between US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was apparent. The future of Powell's position remains uncertain, as both appeared tense during their media presentation. When questioned about the Federal Reserve's renovation exceeding its budget, Trump remarked he would dismiss an employee over it but saw no need to fire the Fed Chairman. Despite a friction between them, the US dollar strengthened, buoyed by the market's confidence following Trump's assurance that Powell would not be let go. Meanwhile, June's durable goods data was disappointing due to weak orders for transportation equipment; it still exceeded expectations, contributing to Dollar's recovery. This weakness primarily stems from tariff pressures rather than other factors. Last week, both existing and new home sales figures fell short of market predictions, placing builders, buyers, and sellers under pressure in a housing market that plays a crucial role in the US economic cycle. Additionally, flash manufacturing PMI readings were weaker than anticipated. The Beige Book indicated that most Federal Reserve districts are experiencing modest growth in lending. Although there were some slight downward revisions, the overall situation remains tense due to persistent inflationary pressures and tariffs. The Federal Reserve's meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to maintain its current policy stance. It appears that the Fed may be gradually moving toward a rate-cutting cycle. Importantly, the looming August 1 deadline cannot be overlooked. Many of the analysts are predicting that the passing of tariff costs will soon impact consumers due to lag effects, potentially also affecting the labour market. However, there is a possibility for compromise between the US administration and the Federal Reserve. As the tariff situation stabilizes, Powell might hint at a data-driven rate cut in September as a conciliatory measure. As expected last week, the European Central Bank decided to keep its interest rate steady at 2%. With the pause in rate adjustments continuing, the ECB reiterated that its decisions will remain data-driven, making it clear that any future changes in interest rate policy will only be determined during meetings, without early commitments to a particular direction. This week is filled with significant economic reports from around the globe. Key US indicators to monitor include the 2nd quarter GDP, Personal Income and Spending (PCE), Non-Farm Payroll, and Consumer Confidence. In the meantime, the market is gearing up for a crucial week as six Central Banks prepare to announce their interest rate decisions. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will share its policy rate on Wednesday. Except for the SBP, all the other banks are expected to keep their rates unchanged. GOLD @ $ 3337.50— This week, market is expected to see volatility. To move higher, gold must surpass $ 3360 to reach $ 3388 or potentially more. However, if it falls below $ 3302, it could decline to $ 3258 or even $ 3226. EURO @ 1.1742— Euro has strong support at 1.1610 and is expected to remain above this level. If it breaks through 1.1820, it may make a move toward 1.1895. Or else 1.1550. GBP @ 1.3439— Pound Sterling will continue to face pressure unless it surpasses 1.3570 to reach 1.3620. The risk of decline will rise if it breaks below 1.3280. JPY @ 147.67— There may still be some losses, but the USD needs to hold 146.20 to make some recovery. If it can break above 148.90, it will pave the way for testing the 150 levels. If not, watch for a drop to 145.40. SBP meeting today Last week, there was a notable change in the Pakistani foreign exchange market, a rarity in recent times, as the Rupee strengthened against the US Dollar. On Monday, it was around 285 to 1 USD, but by Friday, the SBP closed at 283.4539. It is said that administrative measures helped PKR to gain some strength. The future trend continues to be uncertain. Analyzing the data, it appears that Pakistan's economy is on an upswing. This can be supported by various metrics, for instance, the country's debt and deficit ratios indicate a stronger economic position compared to some emerging and advanced economies. The region's challenges, however, play a significant role. For comparative purposes, consider certain European nations that may hold their credit ratings despite underlying risks. Pakistan's geographical context and lack of diversity similar to weaker European economies further differentiate its situation. Additionally, geopolitical conditions have shifted considerably. After three years of struggles, Pakistan's overall foreign exchange reserves are nearing $ 20 billion, with SBP's FX Reserves at $ 14.46 billion. The current account balance and the payments position are consistently positive, with remittances steadily increasing. The International Reserve and Foreign Currency position (Derivatives) stands at $ 2.6 billion, while the CDS has sharply fallen by over 1200 basis points. Pakistan's international Euro and Dollar bonds are recovering from previous lows, and last week's credit rating improvement by S & P to B- reaffirms the progress in the economy. Nevertheless, the primary challenge lies in sustaining and enhancing these economic gains. This can be achieved by energizing economic activity and boosting liquidity via the banking sector, significantly increasing credit availability to the private sector. However, this alone may not be enough unless the tax-to-GDP ratio needs to be raised significantly. Despite these encouraging signs and with oil prices around $ 70 per barrel, the Pakistani Rupee should not have depreciated and should have remained stable. A stable PKR will assist the administration and monetary authorities in keeping inflation low, enabling the monetary policy committee to potentially lower the policy rate in alignment with inflation trends. Given these considerations, policymakers on Monday July 28, might think about reducing the interest rates by nearly 100 basis points. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

0.5pc appreciation
0.5pc appreciation

Business Recorder

time6 hours ago

  • Business Recorder

0.5pc appreciation

KARACHI: Rupee gained against the US dollar in the inter-bank market as it appreciated by Rs1.42 or 0.50% during the previous week. The local unit closed at 283.45, against 284.87 it had closed the week earlier against the greenback, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The week-on-week gain was 93-week high, AKD Securities said, as a reported crackdown against currency smugglers helped the rupee recover against the dollar. The central bank will continue to build its dollar stockpile but at a slower pace without putting undue pressure on the rupee, according to Citigroup Inc., Bloomberg reported. The foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP decreased by $69 million during the week ending July 18, 2025, as the country made scheduled external debt repayments. According to SBP data, the central bank's reserves fell to $14.46 billion, down from $14.53 billion recorded a week earlier. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif decided to continue the remittance incentive scheme, directing the Ministry of Finance to immediately release funds on a priority basis for the Workers' Remittances Incentive Scheme. Open-market rates In the open market, the PKR gained 1.91 rupee for buying and 2.05 rupees for selling against USD, closing at 285.46 and 286.55, respectively. Against Euro, the PKR gained 67 paise for buying and 1.91 rupee for selling, closing at 334.25 and 336.36, respectively. Against UAE Dirham, the PKR gained 99 paise for buying and 1.22 rupee for selling, closing at 77.53 and 78.00, respectively. Against Saudi Riyal, the PKR gained 1.06 rupee for buying and 1.05 rupee for selling, closing at 75.75 and 76.30, respectively. ========================================= THE RUPEE ========================================= Weekly inter-bank market rates for dollar ========================================= Bid Close Rs. 283.45 Offer Close Rs. 283.65 Bid Open Rs. 284.46 Offer Open Rs. 284.65 ========================================= Weekly open-market rates for dollar ========================================= Bid Close Rs. 285.46 Offer Close Rs. 286.55 Bid Open Rs. 286.35 Offer Open Rs. 287.50 ========================================= Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

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