Cool and wet fall and winter weather outlook for Southeast Michigan
Fall can depend on many factors, but winter is the easy one: cold and probably snowy.
Jokes aside, we do have some broad-brushed thoughts on what we're tracking as we approach the coming cooler months.
Southeast Michigan is entering a La Niña watch, which means La Niña looks possible going into the winter months.
What does this mean for Southeast Michigan?
Overall, our patterns are wetter and cooler than our averages when it comes to a La Niña winter. Winters in La Niña characteristically have a higher snow chance as cooler air and wetter conditions up those odds.
It really is a game of odds this far out.
What is more likely, what can we see now, and what type of pattern fits? However, the numbers also look weak.
The colored bars show the likelihood of La Niña (blue), El Niño (red), or an ENSO Neutral (gray), over the course of the coming months.
The La Nina pattern is expected sometime in the September through November range, increasing through the mid-winter months, and falling at the end.
The odds are also mid-range, which denotes a weak La Niña expectation.
Even in weak La Niña years, we have some impacts, for instance, earlier snowfall, but that is far from being set in concrete.
You can view the full La Niña and El Niño history month to month here.
Daily conditions, larger patterns, and even tropical systems like hurricanes can affect the weather here in Michigan throughout the Fall months.
The biggest fall question is the changing leaves, and on that, we can give you a couple of dates plus/minus about a week.
With the conditions we've seen and expected ranges based on our slow switch to a weak La Niña, colors in southeast Michigan will likely start to change in earnest around Sept 25.
Peak color looks to be close to the final week of October.
Now, daily extremes and storms can affect this, so be sure to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast as reports come in.
Now for the big one: what are we thinking for the coming winter?
As mentioned above, cooler and wetter.
Now we're not talking extremes here, but when you add some extra moisture and cooler air, you make snowy days more likely, or at least wintry precipitation.
Most of our La Niña winters see average or a little above average snowfall, but that also depends on the strength of the La Niña in question.
The bottom line is expect cool air and some snow to make an appearance right on time, with a slightly higher chance at more snowfall during the prime mid-winter months.
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