Trump is running out of time to crush Iran's nuclear ambitions

Telegraph

9 hours ago

As President Trump works to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, the Islamic Republic is feverishly building up its offensive military capabilities. The most recent International Atomic Energy Agency report says Tehran has been producing enough 60 per cent enriched uranium to make one nuclear weapon every month and now has enough material to build ten bombs.
It would take no more than two weeks to further enrich this to the 90 per cent required to achieve weapons-grade. It seems likely that the pace of enrichment has if anything increased since nuclear negotiations began.
The IAEA board is due to meet today and may vote on a noncompliance resolution against Iran. Logically, this would lead to snapback UN sanctions under the 2015 Obama nuclear deal, unless Tehran starts to comply with IAEA inspections which it has failed to do up to now. Snapback wouldn't necessarily happen immediately and no doubt the European signatories would coordinate with the White House given Trump's live negotiations.
The president gave the ayatollahs two months to reach a deal, threatening military action if not. That two months is up now and all proposals have apparently been rejected.
Iran's nuclear programme threatens the world and especially the Middle East, with Sunni Arab countries viewed as sworn enemies in Tehran's maniacal eyes. But Israel is most immediately in Khamenei's cross-hairs with his repeated guarantees to annihilate it. It is the only country other than the US that is capable of damaging Iran's nuclear project, but is now on the horns of a dilemma.
Israel can hardly attack while its number one ally is in negotiations on exactly this issue. And if Trump eventually agrees a deal which does not fully dismantle nuclear production facilities – which is a distinct possibility – it will be faced with a decision on whether to go ahead anyway against Trump's likely desire.
Israel is also certain to face obstruction from European leaders who will cravenly do what they can to avoid conflict no matter the consequences. If Trump's negotiations grind to a halt and snapback sanctions are imposed, they will no doubt demand that these are given a chance to work and meanwhile Israel should refrain from attacking.
Such vacillation can be more easily swept aside than hard objections from the US, from which Israel would anyway need support including with potentially large retaliation from Iran.
On that subject, Tehran's ballistic missile stockpiles have been severely depleted by two major attacks against Israel last year, the IDF's strikes against Iranian ballistic missile production facilities and by export of missiles to Russia to attack Ukraine. But Iran is not sitting on its hands over that challenge any more than it is over uranium enrichment.
Earlier this year it took delivery of shipments of ammonium perchlorate from China and has reportedly ordered thousands of tons more, expected to arrive in the coming months. This is an essential component for solid fuel ballistic missiles, including nuclear armed missiles. As well as direct use against Israel, Iran will also send missiles to Lebanon to rebuild Hizballah and to its other proxies in Iraq and Yemen to attack Israel and potentially US forces in the region.
All this means the time for effective military action is now. Iran will do everything it can to spin out talks with the US, doing its best to lead the negotiators along while manipulating Europeans to throw a lifeline.
As well as building up its offensive capabilities, it will be trying to replace its Russian-supplied air defences shattered by an IDF counterstrike last October. It will also be further hardening and dispersing its nuclear facilities.
Trump needs to understand that, even if a deal is agreed, it won't be worth the paper its written on. Tehran has repeatedly breached the terms of Obama's deal as well as its obligations under the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty. Whatever obfuscation it comes up with, Iran will not voluntarily surrender its nuclear weapons programme.
All these negotiations will therefore achieve is to obstruct and delay the inevitable. It is imperative that the US now gives a green light to Netanyahu to do what he has to do, and provide him with whatever support he needs.
The consequences of failure to act go beyond Iran's nuclear capabilities. Trump's moves will also be measured in Moscow and Beijing. Anything other than a hard line with Tehran will be taken as a sign of weakness. It will encourage Putin to continue to refuse to negotiate over Ukraine, believing the cost to be low.
And it will show Xi that even the most bullish and unpredictable president the White House has seen for many years may not stand in the way of his own imperial ambitions. Ultimately, deterrence comes down to demonstrable political will. If a (not yet) nuclear armed state can't be prevented from endangering the world by the American superpower, then what hope is there for anyone deterring two nuclear states.