Israel-Iran Tensions Rise: Western Analysts Warn of Escalation Spiral: Op-ed
Following a recent phone call between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump publicly stated that Iran was discussed among other topics, hinting at potential developments by saying, 'We'll know soon.'
On the same day, Israeli daily Haaretz reported Israel was intensifying preparations for a military strike on Iran, including defensive measures against potential retaliation. The report cited high-level meetings between Israeli and US security officials, reflecting growing doubts in Israeli intelligence circles about the success of nuclear negotiations with Washington.
The New York Times later highlighted a strategic miscalculation by Iran, noting that despite expecting possible Israeli action, Iranian leaders had dismissed warnings of an imminent strike as psychological pressure. As a result, key Iranian military figures remained in civilian locations during the surprise attack.
According to security analysts, Israel's strike, described as unprecedented, targeted core Iranian decision-making and military infrastructure. The strike coincided with an IAEA report accusing Iran of failing to uphold nuclear commitments, a development viewed as a diplomatic pretext for military escalation. Israel reportedly carried out over 100 covert attacks in Iran over the past year, using F-35 jets, naval units, and long-range missiles.
A report by the Atlantic Council described the Israeli strike as a risky "geo-security shift" that breaks with long-standing strategic doctrine.
The analysis suggested the operation effectively collapsed nuclear talks in Oman and signals a dangerous turn toward militarization of the conflict. It warned that Iranian retaliation, either directly or through regional proxies, could expand the conflict and threaten global stability, especially via threats to the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite public displays of coordination, the report noted a widening gap between 'America First' and 'Israel First' strategies, which may complicate U.S.-Israeli military cooperation and future aid negotiations.
However, it argued that Israeli leadership remains adept at aligning with US policy interests, even amid apparent disagreements.
In an interview with Reuters, Trump said he was not concerned about a regional war and questioned whether Iran still maintained a nuclear program after the strike.
He justified the Israeli action as a move to ensure Tehran never acquires nuclear weapons, but added there was still time for a new agreement.
US media offered contrasting takes: Fox News hinted the Trump administration had prior knowledge of the Israeli attack, while Foreign Policy criticized Israel's unilateral strike for jeopardizing nuclear diplomacy. The latter noted U.S. precautionary evacuations suggest awareness of the operation, undermining official denials.
The conflict's economic impact was immediate. Brent crude rose 7.54%, oil shipping futures jumped 15%, and Gulf insurance premiums surged 20%. Gas flows from Israel to Egypt and Jordan were suspended due to security concerns. Regional markets lost over 3% of value, and U.S. stock indices fell as investors fled to treasury bonds.
Strategic research centers warn Iran may respond by expanding its target list, escalating its nuclear program, and threatening broader conflict, potentially triggering a multi-front regional war with global consequences for energy security and supply chains.
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