Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, top 2026 NFL Draft prospect, a 'wide receiver's dream'
Fernando Mendoza has plenty of potential that Indiana hopes he shows in its offense. The 6-5, 225-pound QB had former ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay gushing.
Mendoza certainly has flaws, and the reality check came when stacking up against other QBs forecasted in the 2026 draft class.
2026 NFL mock drafts have Mendoza anywhere from a top-5 pick to the fifth round.
It didn't take long for a recognizable NFL draft analyst's review of Indiana football quarterback Fernando Mendoza to see his name vault up 2026 NFL mock drafts.
When "The McShay Show" published its scouting report of Mendoza, who played two seasons at Cal before transferring to IU, the show's co-hosts, namesake Todd McShay and Steve Muench, had an intriguing title: "What makes the Indiana QB a wide receiver's dream." McShay, recognizable from his days at ESPN, was gushing over Mendoza until a reality check at the end of the show.
Mendoza seemed to have an ideal frame at 6 foot 5, 225 pounds. He was third in the ACC in yards passing per game (273.1) and was surrounded by four draft picks. In 11 games last season, he threw for 3,004 yards, 16 touchdowns to six interceptions and completed 68.7% of his 386 pass attempts. He also ran for 105 yards and two scores, and had 15 yards receiving and a TD.
McShay and Muench dove into what they believe are four key factors when evaluating a quarterback: mental makeup (MM), accuracy, release/arm strength and pocket mobility. They rated them from 1 (elite) to 5 (marginal) with a scale to good and below average in-between. Here were their grades:
Though McShay is high on Mendoza, a large part of it is due to the leap he thinks he can make under coach Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan. And Muench said he wants to see Mendoza elevate his game, particularly road games at Oregon and Penn State.
He cited that Mendoza's six interceptions "could have been a lot higher," citing a weakness of defenders dropping underneath on passes over the middle. Muench cited three separate instances in different games.
Then came the McShay glaze. He cited that Mendoza can see the whole field, goes through progressions quickly, maybe too quickly at times, and that he makes smart decisions when moving the pocket.
"I think this son of a gun is tough in the pocket but, as importantly," McShay said, "what stood out to me more than anything on his tape, he knows where to put the football. … He's not perfect, but (a defensive back) with his back to him, he gives his receivers the best trajectory and angle to go up and make the play on the ball (does it on rails, posts, short fades, in middle of field). It was like over and over again. He's unbelievable with back shoulder fades.
"On top of that, I do think he's impatient sometimes while he can go through his reads quickly and bail on his reads early, but he's just a pup, man. So I'm expecting a big jump."
He labeled it a " (Kurtis) Rourke -plus situation" for IU, an upgrade with a better arm and more mobility. Muench, who wants to see it to believe the potential, pointed out the success Cignetti and Shanahan have had in bringing in transfer QBs three of the past four years: going 8-3 in their first Division-I season at James Madison and then 11-2, each time having the Sun Belt player of the year, and then Rourke leading IU to its first College Football Playoff last season.
Though Muench believes Mendoza has fixable misses of missing reads, he does see the potential and likes the fact he makes plays under pressure.
"If you're taking something away, he adjusts to it and makes a play with his feet," Muench said. "… I was stunned with how well he runs when he takes off."
As the title of the show and McShay eluded to earlier in the podcast, he went deeper on Mendoza's arm talent.
"Here's the other thing, snap delivery, crisp. It comes down the back shoot a touch but it's crisp," McShay said. "It's just quick and crisp and the ball snaps off his hand, and he's got good energy.
"Not just the placement, it's the trajectory of the placement. He's a (expletive) wide receiver's dream. Not because you underthrew it, because you place it there and he did it over, and over, and over again on tape. His ball doesn't flutter or sail at the end, it comes in."
Where Fernando Mendoza ranks among NFL quarterback prospects
There were several caveats to the exercise McShay and Muench did toward the show's end. One was an Arch Manning-sized one as they believed he would stay another year in college after taking over as starter at Texas in 2025. The other was they only took into account their scouted QBs, which included: South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, Penn State's Drew Allar and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier.
Muench: Sellers (that's the guy to me), Klubnik, Allar, Nussmeier and Mendoza.
McShay: Klubnik, Sellers, Nussmeier, Mendoza, Allar.
"I swear to you as we sit here right now, second week in June, I swear to you while they're all different QBs to a different degree … I think they all have the potential to be early draft picks, and I don't think at this point there is a huge difference between them," McShay said.
For what it's worth, ESPN's No. 1 pick predictor published July 17 gave Mendoza a 12% chance, behind only Sellers, Klubnik, Nussmeier and Allar — all listed at 15%. And ESPN's Matt Miller and Jordan Reid picked Mendoza third among QBs, ahead of Sellers and Allar.
Fernando Mendoza's NFL quarterback comparison
McShay laughed at the hypocrisy, "I'm so lazy," he said. He had just gone into the traits he liked about Mendoza when he offered his NFL quarterback comparison:
Said McShay: "When this guy decides he's going to see his reads through; I gave him a Jared Goff comp. It's an indictment on me, I'm such an idiot … I went through Goff, started writing up comparisons between the two, I literally gave the comp three hours later and went through my notes and said Goff went to Cal. ... I think it's a good comp, and it isn't a Cal thing."
Where Fernando Mendoza ranks in 2026 NFL mock drafts
ESPN's Matt Miller (June 30): Mendoza not in first round
Pro Football and Sports Network (July 12): Third overall to the Miami Dolphins
Fernando Mendoza highlights
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