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Al Jazeera
5 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
Now that countries have capitulated on tariffs, Trump will be back for more
Governments have been falling over one another to offer concessions to United States President Donald Trump as his August 1 tariff deadline looms. On Sunday, the US president scored his biggest victory to date, as European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen, like the leader of a vassal state paying homage to an emperor, travelled to Trump's private golf course in Scotland to offer him tribute. It came in the form of an entirely one-sided tariff pact in which Brussels accepted a huge tariff hike and pledged to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on US fossil fuels and military products. The pact has changed the balance between two of the largest economic powers in the world. The EU has simply rolled over without a fight. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou described it as a 'dark day' for the union, while a European diplomat bemoaned by saying 'those who don't hang together get hanged separately.' The economic impact on the rest of the world is likely to be worse still. Trump has declared economic war on friends and foes alike. Many countries are facing higher tariffs than the EU and are less capable of defending themselves. By giving in, Brussels has made it harder for other countries to stand firm. A 40 percent tariff on Laos or 36 percent on Cambodia, for example, will be devastating to the export industries which US corporations encouraged them to build in recent decades. And without a united front, other countries are reluctantly coming to the table. Last week, Trump announced a deal with the Philippines for 19 percent tariffs on all goods exported to the US and no tariffs on imported US goods; it was unclear if Manilla had fully agreed to the arrangement before the US president made it public. Indonesia's deal is even worse, with the country forced to give up controls on its critical mineral exports and aspects of its emerging digital sector – both of which are critical to its economic development. For Brazil, US demands go beyond the economic realm, with Washington going as far as trying to interfere in the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro. While the provisions of different trade deals vary, they all follow the same strategy: Bullying governments to change their rules and regulations in favour of US corporate interests, especially those of oligarchs who surround the president. Trump's trade negotiations style might be highly erratic, but his is a clear-cut end goal: To upend the world economic system, replacing rules which were already unfair with the absolute dominance of the biggest bully. The immediate impact of this restructuring will be bad for the countries that submit to it, but this won't be the end of the story. By giving Trump what he wants, they have strengthened his hand, and he will be back for more. Already, the EU has little clarity around a range of additional tariffs the US president might bring in and how they will affect the 'deal' that's been made. Canada ditched its digital services tax on Big Tech to get a deal, only to be hit by higher tariffs. The Philippines now faces a higher tariff than it did in April, despite making concessions. And the UK thought it had a deal on steel, only to discover it didn't, really. There's no fairness in any of this. The only way out is to stand up to Trump; he does not respect weakness. As a minimum, for countries that have signed a deal, that means implementing as little as they can. Governments that can retaliate should do so. That does not necessarily mean matching tariff for tariff, a policy which could inflict serious self-harm, but rather using the tools that show their strength best. The EU has ample power to challenge the US services trade, and should have retaliated by limiting US corporate access to, for example, government contracts, financial markets and intellectual property protection. In failing to take such action, the EU showed a profound misunderstanding of the moment we're in. Von der Leyen seems to think Trump is a temporary anomaly who can be contained while we wait for a resumption of business as usual in four years. But in Europe and the US, the public has had enough of a corporate-dominated global economy. There's no return to that world. Retaliatory policies like the ones mentioned above can not only maximise the pain directed at Trump's oligarchic friends, but they can also help unwind the power of the monopolies which are at the heart of our deeply unfair, unsustainable economy. This last point is important. Because if we want Trump gone, as millions of Americans do, we will not get there by handing him unnecessary victories. Trump won power by building a bridge between those angry at a corporate-dominated economy and the corporate barons themselves. It was an impressive feat. But the alliance will only last as long as he's winning. The question now is how governments can best protect their economies long-term, and that must come through regaining sovereignty, not handing it over to the bully in the White House. What's more, such action can show Trump for the corporate lobbyist he really is and lay a path to his eventual downfall. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
Al Jazeera
6 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
As Trump's August 1 deadline looms, tariffs are here to stay, experts say
As United States President Donald Trump blasts his way through tariff announcements, one thing is clear, experts say: Some level of duties is here to stay. In the past few weeks, Trump has announced a string of deals – with the European Union, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines – with tariffs ranging from 15 percent to 20 percent. He has also threatened Brazil with a 50 percent tariff, unveiled duties of 30 percent and 35 percent for major trading partners Mexico and Canada, and indicated that deals with China and India are close. How many of Trump's tariff rates will shake out is anybody's guess, but one thing is clear, according to Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada: 'No one is getting zero tariffs. There's no going back.' Trump's various announcements have spelled months of chaos for industry, leaving businesses in limbo and forcing them to pause investment and hiring decisions. The World Bank has slashed its growth forecasts for nearly 70 percent of economies – including the US, China and Europe, and six emerging market regions – and cut its global growth estimate to 2.3 percent, down from 2.7 percent in January. Oxford Economics has forecast a shallow recession in capital spending in the Group of Seven (G7) countries – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US – lasting from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year. 'What we're seeing is the Donald Trump business style: There's lots of commotion, lots of claim, lots of activity and lots of b*******,' Robert Rogowsky, professor of international trade at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told Al Jazeera. 'That's his business model, and that's how he operates. That's why he's driven so many of his businesses into bankruptcy. It's not strategic or tactical. It's instinctive.' Rogowsky said he expects Trump to push back his tariff deadline again, after delaying it from April to July, and then to August 1. 'It's going to be a series of TACO tariffs,' Rogowsky said, referring to the acronym for 'Trump Always Chickens Out', a phrase coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong in early May to describe the US president's backpedalling on tariffs in the face of stock market turmoil. 'He will bump them again,' Rogowsky said. 'He's just exerting the image of power.' Trump's back-and-forth policy moves have characterised his dealings with some of the US's biggest trade partners, including China and the EU. China's tariff rate has gone from 20 percent to 54 percent, to 104 percent, to 145 percent, and then 30 percent, while the deadline for implementation has shifted repeatedly. The proposed tariff rates for the EU have followed a similar pattern, going from 20 percent to 50 percent to 30 percent, and then 15 percent following the latest trade deal. The EU's current tariff rate only applies to 70 percent of goods, with a zero rate applying to a limited range of exports, including semiconductor equipment and some chemicals. European steel exports will continue to be taxed at 50 percent, and Trump has indicated that new tariffs could be on the way for pharmaceutical products. Despite the trade deals, many details of how Trump's tariffs will work in practice remain unclear. Whether Trump announces more changes down the track, analysts agree that the world has entered a new phase in which countries are seeking to become less reliant on the US. 'Now that the initial shock and anger [at Trump policies] has subsided, there is a quiet determination to build resilience and become less reliant on the US,' Nadjibulla said, adding that Trump was pushing countries to address longstanding issues that had been untouchable before. Canada, for instance, is tackling inter-provincial trade barriers, a politically sensitive issue historically, even as it looks elsewhere to increase exports, said Tony Stillo, director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics. 'It would be foolhardy not to provide to the US, seeing as it's our largest market, but it also makes us more resilient to provide to other markets as well,' Stillo told Al Jazeera. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has reached out to the EU and Mexico and indicated his wish to improve his country's strained relations with China and India. This month, Canada expanded its exports of liquified natural gas beyond the US market, with its first shipment of cargoes to Asia. To mitigate the fallout of Trump's tariffs, Ottawa has been offering relief to Canadian businesses, including automakers, and has instituted a six-month pause on tariffs on some imports from the US to give firms time to re-adjust their supply chains. There is also 'some relief' in the fact that other countries 'don't seem to be imitating the Trump show [by levying their own tariffs]. They're witnessing this attempt to strong-arm the rest of the world, but it doesn't seem to be working,' Mary Lovely, the Anthony M Solomon senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), told Al Jazeera. But the world is watching how the tariffs will affect the US economy, as 'that will also be instructive to other countries', Lovely said. 'If we see a slowdown, as we expect, it becomes a cautionary tale for others.' Although the US stock market is near an all-time high, it is heavily weighted towards the 'magnificent seven', said Lovely, referring to the largest tech companies, and that reflects just one part of the economy. Re-emergence of industrial policy Trump's tariffs come on top of other growing challenges for exporters the world over, including China's subsidy-heavy industrial policy that allows its businesses to undercut its competitors. 'We've entered a period of global economic alignment with the reintroduction of industrial policies,' Nadjibulla said, explaining that more and more governments are likely to roll out support for their domestic industries. 'Each country will have to navigate these and find ways to de-risk and reduce overreliance on the US and China.' Still, countries seeking to support their homegrown industries will have to do so while reckoning with the World Trade Organization and rules-based trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Nadjibulla said. 'It will take some tremendous leadership around the world to corral this wild mustang [Trump] before he breaks up the world order,' Rogowsky said. 'But it will break because I do think Donald Trump will drive us into a recession.'
Al Jazeera
6 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
Colombia ex-President Alvaro Uribe found guilty in landmark bribery trial
Former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has been found guilty of witness tampering and bribery in a landmark trial, becoming the country's first ex-president to ever be found guilty at trial. Judge Sandra Liliana Heredia ruled on Monday that there was enough evidence to determine that Uribe, 73, conspired with a lawyer to coax three former members of paramilitary groups who were in prison into changing testimony they had provided to Ivan Cepeda, a left-wing senator who had launched an investigation into Uribe's alleged ties to a paramilitary group in the 1990s. The case dates to 2012, when Uribe filed a libel suit against Cepeda with the Supreme Court. But in a twist, the high court dismissed the charges against Cepeda and began investigating Uribe in 2018. Uribe faces up to 12 years in prison, but a sentencing will be delivered in a separate hearing on Friday. He is expected to appeal the ruling. Uribe's critics have celebrated his trial as the deserved downfall of a man repeatedly accused of close relationships with violent right-wing paramilitaries, but never convicted of any crime. The former leader, 73, and his supporters say the process is a persecution and that he is innocent. Uribe and one of his lawyers, Jaime Granados, joined the hearing via videolink, while another lawyer, Jaime Lombana, appeared in person. 'This is not the end of this process, the appeal is next and we are going to demonstrate that this decision, which we respect, is wrong,' lawyer Juan Felipe Amaya, part of Uribe's legal team, told journalists at the court. Granados told the hearing that the presumption of Uribe's innocence should be maintained and asked for him to remain free during the remainder of the process. Both detractors and supporters gathered outside the court, with some Uribe backers sporting masks of his face. Even if the conviction is eventually upheld, Uribe may be allowed to serve his final sentence on house arrest because of his age. Uribe's trial triggered criticism from United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Uribe had a close relationship with the US during his two terms as president between 2002 and 2010, as right-wing governments in Latin America have often had. 'Uribe's only crime has been to tirelessly fight and defend his homeland. The weaponisation of Colombia's judicial branch by radical judges has now set a worrisome precedent,' Rubio said on X. Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a leftist, defended the ruling, writing on X that 'a strong justice system' will enable Colombia to emerge from violence. He added in another message that Rubio was interfering with Colombia's sovereignty. 'A decision against the ex-president could generate some kind of reprisal by the government of the United States,' Banco de Bogota said in a note on Monday, referring to a proposal by US Republican lawmaker Mario Diaz-Balart to cut non-military aid to Colombia next year, partly on concerns of due process violations in the Uribe case. Uribe, who was placed under house arrest for two months in 2020, is head of the powerful Democratic Centre party and was a senator for years both before and after his presidency. He has repeatedly emphasised that he extradited paramilitary leaders to the US. Colombia's truth commission says paramilitary groups, which demobilised under deals with Uribe's government, killed more than 205,000 people, nearly half of the 450,000 deaths recorded during the ongoing civil conflict. In recent decades, right-wing paramilitary groups across Latin America – backed by the US – along with the armed forces of allied governments, have been responsible not only for killings, but also for forced disappearances, sexual violence, mass displacement, and other grave human rights abuses.
