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Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Singapore NODX surges 13% y-o-y in June, economists mixed on forecasts
Some analysts see that frontloading could dampen growth in the second half, compounded by potential drag from US reciprocal tariffs. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) 13% y-o-y climb in the month of June on the back of continued frontloading ahead of US President Donald Trump's July 8 deadline has inspired largely neutral outlooks from economists. Economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee Shun Rong at Maybank Securities (Maybank) have upgraded their 2025 NODX forecast to 4%, which they note implies a slower growth of 2.8% in the second half. At the same time, the pair are reiterating their 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 3.2%. Chua and Lee had previously upgraded their GDP forecast to 2.4%, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter. RHB Bank Singapore's (RHB) Barnabas Gan and Laalitha Raveenthar have also upgraded their NODX forecast for the full year to 2.0% from an initial 0.0%. At the same time, they retain their 2025 GDP forecast at 2.0% Fellow economist from UOB Global Economics and Market Research (UOB) Jester Koh is keeping his 2025 NODX forecast of 1.0% to 3.0% unchanged, while Oxford Economics' Sheana Yue has kept her 2025 GDP projection of 2.0% growth unchanged. The 13.3% surge included a $1.3 billion contribution from gold, without which NODX growth would have come in at 3.4% y-o-y. Non-oil re-export (NORX) growth meanwhile grew 18.5% y-o-y. Chua and Lee note that Singapore's exports of semiconductors, specialised machinery and other electronic components have benefited from broadening artificial intelligence (AI) demand and exemptions from reciprocal tariffs. Around 61% of Singapore's exports to the US, by their estimates, are currently exempted from reciprocal tariffs, including semiconductors, electronics, pharmaceuticals and energy. Electronics NODX accelerated, growing 8% y-o-y on the back of double-digit expansions in integrated circuits (IC), personal computers (PC) and bare printed circuit boards (PCB). By market, demand climbed the most in Japan at 76.6%, Hong Kong at 45.9%, Indonesia at 29.8% and South Korea at 27.2%. Meanwhile, electronics NORX grew by 26.2% y-o-y in June, owing to PCs, ICs and telecommunications equipment. Aggregate NORX rose by 18.5% y-o-y, after a 16.2% increase in the preceding month, led by Taiwan at 96%, the US at 64.3% and Hong Kong at 26.7%. Growth in non-electronics exports climbed to 14.5% y-o-y, driven by non-monetary gold which leapt 211.9% y-o-y, specialised machinery at 31.4% y-o-y and lastly, other specialty chemicals at 20.1%. On the other hand, the export of pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals contracted 13.7% y-o-y and 10.2% y-o-y respectively in June, with the latter declining for the fourth consecutive month. NODX declines in Europe (EU), Thailand, Malaysia, US, Indonesia and Japan were offset by growth across Hong Kong at 54.4%, Taiwan at 28.3%, South Korea at 33% and China at 8.5%. 'Some exports may have been diverted from the EU during the 90-day reprieve, as manufacturing supply cannot be ramped up quickly to meet import demand,' write Chua and Lee. Exports to Europe, note Chua and Lee, will 'likely recover and catch up' following the oncoming US reciprocal tariffs effective August. They add: 'This will help offset and cushion any export slowdown to the US in the second half.' In June, NODX to Hong Kong at 54.4% and Taiwan at 28.3% were led by specialised machinery and semiconductor chips, while exports to South Korea were driven by specialised machinery at 77.9%, measuring instruments at 202.7% and PCs at 195.3%. Chua and Lee note that non-monetary gold was a prominent driver of exports to China and Hong Kong, with gold exports to China surged 2222% y-o-y in June. Excluding gold, NODX to China fell 3.3% y-o-y, for the ninth consecutive month, while gold exports to Hong Kong jumped 71.1% y-o-y. Overall, Maybank's Chua and Lee expect the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) to upgrade its GDP forecast range for 2025 to 2% to 3%, once final numbers on the 2Q2025 GDP are released in August. They also expect Enterprise Singapore to upgrade its full year export forecast from the current conservative 1% to 3% range, as first half NODX growth came in higher than expected at 5.2%. Exports and manufacturing growth will likely slow after higher reciprocal tariffs for the region kick in on Aug 1, note Chua and Lee. According to them, positives that will mitigate the payback and severity of the second half export slowdown are relatively lower US tariffs, broadening global AI demand and US-China de-escalation with a probable extension of the US-China tariff truce beyond Aug 12. 'Singapore faces the lowest US reciprocal tariff in Asia, at about 5.1% in effective terms by our estimates, below the 10% baseline tariff rate due to the current exemptions,' write Chua and Lee. In the US, wholesale inventories have been rising modestly over the last few months as companies stock up, but US retail inventories have not shown any visible increase. On this, Chua and Lee write: 'We think that the US inventory overhang post-reciprocal tariffs may only last several months before companies have to replenish their stock and order more imports.' While they see export growth to 'likely moderate' in the second half, given the stronger-than-expected growth in the first half, Chua and Lee expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current modest appreciation bias for the upcoming meetings. 'We lower our three-month Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) forecast to 1.5% by end-2025 and 1.2% by end-2026, as safe haven flows continue to dampen domestic interest rates,' write Chua and Lee. Should the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) cut rates in the second half, this could also drive short-term interest rates lower, the pair add. Looking ahead, UOB's Koh sees that 'payback' from earlier frontloading is likely to dampen growth in the second half, compounded by potential drag from US reciprocal tariffs. 'However, in our view, the eventual growth 'payback' may be more pronounced in trade-related services rather than in manufacturing, as frontloading seems to be more pronounced in electronics exports and less so in non-electronics exports and manufacturing,' writes Koh. Any further growth drag in these sectors, he adds, is likely to stem from weaker demand due to the tariffs themselves. RHB's Gan and Raveenthar note that although June's NODX numbers offer a 'welcome reprieve' and underscore the resilience of Singapore's trade architecture—especially its regional diversification—it 'should not be viewed' as a structural re-rating of the external sector. The pair adds: 'The fundamental backdrop remains mixed, with a delicate balance between cyclical recovery and looming protectionist headwinds.' Meanwhile, on Singapore's GDP in the second quarter, Oxford Economics' Yue sees that readings from the quarter will be 'revised upwards' from advanced estimates released earlier this week. On NODX, Yue has a slightly more prolonged outlook with regards to the frontloading boost than her fellow economists, noting that the process is "straightforward". 'The extension of the tariff suspension deadline to Aug 1 could further support goods exports. That said, we anticipate any remaining resilience to diminish over the upcoming months, especially if higher tariffs are imposed in the 3Q2025,' writes Yue. She adds that Singapore could benefit from an established re-exporting sector and a lower reciprocal tariff, while a structural shift in AI-linked electronics demand should continue to be a tailwind. Yue surmises: 'Therefore, although export growth is expected to decelerate, a collapse in 2025 is unlikely.' Senior economist at DBS Bank, Chua Han Teng, agrees that NODX of 16.5% y-o-y in the 1H2025 is unsustainable, with the front-loading of shipments eventually being followed by a 'payback' through decelerating trade and manufacturing production to materialise in the second half. 'The city-state's external demand will likely face downward pressures, due to still-high global trade frictions and continued uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, such as the potential imposition of US sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceutical goods,' writes Chua. See Also: Click here to stay updated with the Latest Business & Investment News in Singapore Economists raise 2025 GDP forecast following 2Q flash estimate but stay wary on 2H Singapore, London are costliest cities for luxury spending New grant for local firms to seek advice, subsidies as Trump's tariffs bite Read more stories about where the money flows, and analysis of the biggest market stories from Singapore and around the World Get in-depth insights from our expert contributors, and dive into financial and economic trends Follow the market issue situation with our daily updates Or want more Lifestyle and Passion stories? 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Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Yahoo
A Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity: This Blue Chip Healthcare Stock Down 50% Could Double Your Money
Key Points Novo Nordisk's recent financial results and clinical progress haven't impressed Wall Street. However, the company can right the ship through innovation in its core specialty and elsewhere. The stock looks attractively valued at current levels and could beat the market over the next six years. 10 stocks we like better than Novo Nordisk › Investors looking to strike while the iron is hot can buy beaten-down stocks that appear to have excellent chances of bouncing back. And that describes shares of Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) very well. The pharmaceutical leader is down by 52% over the trailing-12-month period as of July 17, but initiating a position now could double investors' money in six years or so. Here's why this stock is a screaming buy at its current levels. Novo Nordisk's recent challenges Novo Nordisk focuses on developing diabetes treatments, an area where it has been a leader for many decades. As of February, it held a 33.3% market share for diabetes drugs. This sort of long-term dominance doesn't happen by accident. The company has consistently attracted top talent in the pharmaceutical industry, which, combined with its extensive experience in diabetes, has enabled it to break new ground repeatedly. Why, then, have the company's shares dropped by 52% over the past year? Because Novo Nordisk failed to impress the market with its financial results and clinical progress. The developments that led to the drugmaker's share plunge would have been excellent for almost any other pharmaceutical company, but investors held it to a higher standard given its rich valuation metrics. For instance, the company reported phase 3 results for CagriSema, an investigational weight management medicine, that proved it's more effective than its famous semaglutide (Wegovy), reducing patients' weight by an average of 22.7% in 68 weeks. However, management was looking for a 25% figure in the study. Very few anti-obesity therapies in development have achieved results comparable to CagriSema, but that was not enough to please investors. The good news: Novo Nordisk's pipeline in diabetes and the fast-growing area of weight management remains robust. The company has several promising candidates in development, including Amycretin, for which it recently initiated late-stage studies. And management has significantly expanded its pipeline through acquisitions. Even with mounting competition, the company should continue to be one of the leaders in its core areas of focus. It's been developing medicines in other fields as well, including various rare diseases (such as the blood disorders beta thalassemia and sickle cell disease), neurological disorders (including Alzheimer's and Parkinson's), and others. Making progress in diabetes and obesity while diversifying its lineup should work wonders for Novo Nordisk down the line. The price is right Net sales in the first quarter grew by 19% year over year to 78.1 billion Danish krone ($12.1 billion). The company's net profit was up 14% year over year to $4.5 billion. These would be excellent results for most similarly sized drugmakers, yet Wall Street remains unimpressed. In my view, that has created a wonderful opportunity to buy shares on the dip. The company's forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) has declined significantly over the past year and now stands at 16.9, barely above the healthcare industry's 16.2 and lower than the S&P 500's 22.3. But given Novo Nordisk's still excellent position in its core markets of diabetes and obesity treatments -- the latter of which should grow rapidly in the coming years -- and the company's better-than-average revenue and earnings growth, its stock is arguably worth a steeper premium. In fact, the forward P/E is about as low as it has been in over two years. At current levels, shares look like a steal. Here is how things could evolve for the company in the next six years. First, it could make significant clinical and regulatory progress and launch at least one -- if not several -- blockbuster weight loss or diabetes medications. Second, the company should continue recording strong results, with revenue and earnings moving in the right direction. Lastly, it looks likely to continue increasing its dividend, which it has done significantly over the past half-decade. The stock needs a compound annual growth rate of 12.2% to double in the next six years. Novo Nordisk can pull it off, especially for those who opt to reinvest the dividend. Should you buy stock in Novo Nordisk right now? Before you buy stock in Novo Nordisk, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Novo Nordisk wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $652,133!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,056,790!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,048% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025 Prosper Junior Bakiny has positions in Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. A Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity: This Blue Chip Healthcare Stock Down 50% Could Double Your Money was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Dow futures dip as investors brace for a big week of earnings, housing market data and Jerome Powell
Markets were little changed on Sunday ahead of a busy week for investors, who can expect another flood of corporate earnings, economic data and comments from central bankers. Meanwhile, upper-house parliamentary election results from Japan could ripple through global bond markets and jolt U.S. Treasury yields. U.S. stocks signaled a calmness on Sunday night that belied a busy week ahead that includes a flood of corporate earnings, economic data and comments from central bankers. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped just 16 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures dipped 0.04%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down 1.1 basis points to 4.42%. The U.S. dollar was flat against the euro and down 0.15% against the yen, after upper-house parliamentary elections in Japan delivered a disastrous blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition. Earlier forecasts for a poor result for Ishiba had already sent Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs as investors expected the election to clear the way for more government spending and tax cuts. Japan's stock and bond markets are closed Monday, meaning U.S. Treasury yields may see a delayed response to the election later in the week. Higher Japanese yields could make U.S. debt less attractive to local investors, who have typically been big Treasury buyers. Gold was down 0.14% at $3,353.60 per ounce. U.S. oil prices rose 0.21% to $67.48 per barrel, and Brent crude climbed 0.19% to $69.41. After big banks and Netflix reported quarterly earnings last week, more tech giants are due. Results for Tesla and Google parent Alphabet come out on Wednesday, while Intel reports on Thursday. Other big names on deck include Verizon, Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, General Motors, RTX, Northrop Grumman, IBM, AT&T, Honeywell, and Union Pacific. Among economic reports that are scheduled are two key housing datasets: existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Thursday. They come amid growing signs of cracks in the housing market. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman are due to speak at a banking conference. That's as President Donald Trump and the White House have continued to wage a pressure campaign against Powell over rates and renovations at the central bank's headquarters. This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
