Has state recognition changed the game in Gaza? Only for the deluded

a day ago

When Australia joined France, the UK and Canada in planning to recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly next month, Anthony Albanese argued that Hamas didn't support a two-state solution. Its aim, he said, was instead to control all the land between the river and the sea.
The prime minister was right about that. Reaching a compromise with Israel, dividing the territory so that two countries could live side by side in peace was the path chosen by Fatah, which controlled the West Bank, not Hamas, which controlled Gaza.
But Hamas is prepared to make political capital out of a plan to recognise the state of Palestine, even if it's one it opposes. Hamas is looking to claim a victory, any victory, after 22 months of conflict in Gaza. More than 60,000 Palestinian lives have been lost, according to Hamas Health Ministry figures, including most of the senior Hamas leadership there. Huge swathes of the strip have been destroyed. Images of Gaza from the air conjure up the destruction of Grozny in Chechnya by the Russian military at the start of this century – or Dresden after Allied bombing during World War II.
Hamas began this round of its conflict with Israel on October 7, 2023, murdering and raping some 1200 people, mostly Israelis, and taking some 250 into the Gaza Strip as hostages, uploading images to social media live as they went. It was the deadliest raid since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, leading to the longest conflict in Israel's history, and the costliest one for the people of Gaza. Last month, there was unprecedented criticism from Arab sources, with calls from the Arab League for Hamas to lay down its weapons, to release the remaining Israeli hostages and leave Gaza.
Hamas leader Ghazi Hamad came out fighting. One of the group's 'external leadership' members based in Qatar, Hamad did a long interview on Al Jazeera, asserting that Hamas would never lay down its weapons, while spinning the Gaza war as a victory. 'Why are all these countries recognising Palestine now? Had any country dared to recognise the state of Palestine prior to October 7? … October 7 forced the world to open its eyes to the Palestinian cause, and to act forcefully in this respect,' he said. 'The powerful blow that was delivered to Israel on October 7 has yielded important historic achievements… People who thought that defeating Israel is difficult, [realised] today that it is very easy. Today, through October 7, we proved that defeating Israel is not as difficult as people had thought.'
However, most Palestinians don't regard this Gaza war as a victory for themselves, or for Hamas, according to polls conducted across Gaza and the West Bank over the past 22 months by Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki. They show that the October 7 attacks are viewed with increasing disfavour by Palestinians – as is Hamas itself. 'The resistance', as the Islamist group styles itself, is less popular now than it was before the war, with support for a negotiated settlement with Israel climbing.
In Israel, polls show that more than 75 per cent of Israelis want the war in Gaza to end, so that as many Israeli hostages as possible can be returned. It's estimated that Gaza militants hold about 50 hostages, of whom 19 are believed to still be alive. Or half alive. On August 1, 664 days after taking him captive from the Nova Music Festival, Hamas released a video showing an emaciated Evyatar David given a shovel with which to dig his own grave. Tal Shoham, who had been held hostage with him, but was released during the second ceasefire back in April, said their thirst was so severe they drank from the toilet.
PM Benjamin Netanyahu's latest plan to expand Israel's military operation and to occupy Gaza City 'temporarily' – forcibly relocating a further 800,000 Palestinians – is not popular in Israel. It was not supported by Israel's military, with Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir arguing it could expand Gaza's humanitarian crisis as well as endangering the hostages. Still, the widening of the war was pushed through by the most hard-line government in Israeli history, including parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who say openly they wish to move the Palestinian population out of Gaza and return Jewish settlers there in their stead.