Trump's controversial $250 visa fee could cost the US economy $11 billion as tourists stay away, research finds

Independent

a day ago

Research suggests President Donald Trump 's new $250 'visa integrity fee' could cost the United States $11 billion — a much larger figure than the Congressional Budget Office previously estimated, according to a report.
The fee, packed in Trump's so-called 'Big, Beautiful Bill' that he signed into law last month, applies to all visitors traveling to the U.S. on a non-immigrant visa. The fee doesn't apply to countries on the Visa Waiver Program, which includes most Western European nations and some Asian countries.
By 2034, the 'visa integrity fee' would bring in more than $27 billion, the Congressional Budget Office estimated. Said differently, the office is predicting the U.S. will rake in $2.7 billion from 11 million foreign travelers paying the fee each year.
While the language of the law makes the fee sound like a win for the U.S. economy, it may actually become a major loss, as the cost could deter visitors. That loss could be as high as roughly $3.6 billion per year, or $11 billion in three years, according to a Tourism Economics analysis seen by Forbes.
A decline in travelers could lead to a dip in visitor spending and job losses in the tourism industry. In 2022, the travel and tourism industry contributed $2.3 trillion to the U.S. economy, according to the International Trade Administration.
The CBO appeared not to have taken these potential drops into account.
'By longstanding tradition, the Congressional Budget Office does not incorporate macroeconomic feedback effects into its traditional cost estimates,' a CBO spokesperson told Forbes. 'We didn't specifically do a dynamic analysis of this provision.'
The Independent has reached out to the CBO for more information.
The fee, which will take effect in October, was introduced before the U.S. is set to host events which tend to draw large crowds from around the world, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics.
Even before Trump's mega-bill was passed international tourism was down.
The U.S. was the only country of the 184 economies analyzed by the World Travel & Tourism Council forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025, a May report found. At this rate, the U.S. is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending this year, according to the report.
'This is a wake-up call for the U.S. government,' the organization's CEO Julia Simpson warned in a statement. 'The world's biggest Travel & Tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction, not because of a lack of demand, but because of a failure to act. While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the 'closed' sign.'
Outside of Canada and Mexico, the United Kingdom, India, Brazil, Japan, and Germany comprised the top five countries with citizens that visited the U.S. this year as of May 2025, according to the International Trade Administration. Of these nations, the fee would only apply to citizens of Brazil and India, which could pack a punch to the U.S. economy.
In 2022, for example, Indian tourists visiting the U.S. generated around $13 billion, according to the International Trade Administration.
'Congress made the mistake of assuming that this worldwide visa integrity fee would not have a big impact on visitors from countries like India or Brazil,' Erik Hansen, senior vice president of government relations at the U.S. Travel Association, told Forbes. 'This is the exact type of armchair public policymaking that is going to get us into a big mess.'