Monsoon rains: boon or bane for cotton production and exports?

Business Recorder

31-07-2025

The cotton crop, often described as 'white gold,' remains a central pillar of Pakistan's agro-economy. As the 2025 monsoon season unfolds, concerns surrounding its effect on cotton production have resurfaced.
The implications are not only significant for domestic supply chains but also for the country's export performance and broader economic stability. Each year, the same pressing question arises: will the monsoon rains rejuvenate the sector or bring further distress?
Pakistan has set an ambitious target of 12.77 million bales for the 2024–25 cotton season, a necessary goal, given the country's reliance on cotton as a raw material for its textile exports. Yet the recent heavy and erratic rainfall in key cotton-producing areas of southern Punjab and Sindh has posed a serious challenge to achieving this objective. These rains, while vital in theory, have in practice become unpredictable and often damaging.
Fields in districts like Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalnagar, and Sanghar have reported waterlogging and crop stress, which threaten both the yield and quality of cotton.
In the 2023–24 season, Pakistan managed to produce around 8.3 million bales, well short of its 11.5 million bale target. The gap was largely filled by costly imports from countries such as the United States, Brazil, and India. This increasing reliance on foreign cotton has strained the national exchequer and added pressure to an already high import bill.
The situation becomes even more alarming when considered in light of the textile sector's performance, which contributes over USD16 billion in exports annually, with nearly 60 percent dependent on cotton. A further drop in domestic production not only reduces value chain efficiency but also risks pushing textile firms toward production cuts or closure.
Cotton is far more than a raw material; it forms the foundation of Pakistan's industrial employment, supporting over 40 percent of the industrial workforce and contributing approximately 8.5 percent to national GDP. A production shortfall translates directly into reduced ginning activity, mill shutdowns, and job losses, especially in rural communities.
The broader implications of a weak cotton harvest are economic stagnation, reduced foreign exchange earnings, and disrupted livelihoods. Moreover, it hampers long-term investment in the textile industry, a sector where Pakistan historically holds a comparative advantage.
In the face of changing weather patterns, experts are increasingly advocating for a paradigm shift in how cotton is cultivated and managed. The unpredictable nature of monsoon rains demands an equally dynamic and resilient agricultural approach. Climate-resilient cotton varieties that can withstand periods of excessive moisture or drought must be developed and disseminated quickly.
Institutions like the Central Cotton Research Institute (CCRI) and National Institute for Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE) have a critical role to play in scaling these innovations, but they require timely funding, support, and interprovincial collaborations.
Beyond seed improvement, infrastructure must also evolve. Poor drainage systems in low-lying areas mean that even moderate rainfall can destroy fields within days. Investments in canal rehabilitation, proper field levelling, and farm-to-market road networks are no longer luxuries but necessities. These improvements would not only preserve cotton output but also increase farmer confidence in continuing cultivation in regions prone to monsoon flooding.
Another emerging concern is the increased incidence of pest attacks following rain, especially due to the humid microclimates that develop in waterlogged fields. The whitefly, pink bollworm, and jassid outbreaks have grown in frequency and severity, often resistant to conventional pesticide applications.
Addressing this challenge requires the promotion of integrated pest management (IPM), biological controls, and early warning systems that enable farmers to act before infestations spiral out of control. Pakistan can take cues from neighbouring countries that have already implemented remote sensing tools and mobile-based pest alert systems for real-time decision-making.
Farmers, particularly smallholders, face the greatest risks and possess the fewest resources to cope. While some pilot insurance schemes have been introduced in parts of Punjab, broader implementation remains elusive. A national crop insurance programme, backed by both federal and provincial governments, would provide much-needed security.
Similarly, timely input subsidies and compensation packages during adverse seasons can cushion financial shocks and ensure farmers are not forced to abandon cotton for alternative crops like sugarcane or rice, which may offer short-term gains but longer-term ecological imbalance.
There is also a need to address long-standing governance and coordination issues. Often, delays in announcing minimum support prices, poor seed regulation, and fragmented extension services leave cotton farmers exposed.
The Cotton Control Board and Pakistan Cotton Standards Institute, if empowered and properly resourced, could provide a central role in quality assurance, production forecasting, and the harmonization of support across provinces. Consistency in seed certification, pest control guidance, and market facilitation can help stabilize the sector even under variable climatic conditions.
Pakistan's textile exporters, meanwhile, are facing a tough international market where buyers are demanding not just quality but also traceability, environmental sustainability, and ethical sourcing. These demands are harder to meet when raw material is sourced through fragmented and unstable import channels.
A stable domestic cotton supply enhances Pakistan's ability to meet international compliance benchmarks and reduces exposure to global price shocks. By producing more locally and efficiently, the country can maintain its textile edge in a competitive global market.
Increasing the ginning capacity by producing weather-resilient cotton not only reduces dependency on imports but also ensures continuity for a sector that drives industrial growth and foreign exchange earnings. It would also help narrow the trade gap, strengthen the rupee, and promote rural development. Every saved dollar on cotton imports is a step toward macroeconomic recovery.
It is critical that the government, private sector, and academia work together to develop and implement a cotton revitalization strategy. The required tools climate-smart seed varieties, digitized monitoring, improved irrigation, institutional alignment are already available. What's needed is the collective political and economic will to make cotton a top priority once again. Pakistan has the talent, land, and climate to be a cotton leader as it simply needs the infrastructure and policy support to match.
We must utilize both our financial resources and intellectual capital to maintain the resilience of this sector. Despite facing adversity in the form of climate change and market volatility, there remains a significant opportunity to boost cotton productivity and restore Pakistan's rightful place in the global textile landscape. With timely interventions and a shift in strategy, we can rise to the challenge and ensure that cotton thrives, even when the monsoon does not behave.
In conclusion, while monsoon rains remain essential to the agricultural lifeblood of Pakistan, their increasing volatility poses a critical threat to cotton production. The choice before us is clear: either we proactively adapt and modernize, or continue bearing the brunt of lost seasons and missed opportunities. By embracing innovation, supporting farmers, and strengthening institutions, Pakistan can ensure that its 'white gold' shines brightly again.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025