Trump's ‘trade tsunami' unsettles geopolitics
At the time it looked like a particularly brazen example of a developing nation that traded heavily on its ties with the US, and had become the only declared 'major non-Nato ally' of Washington on the African continent in 2024 largely as a result of its declared support for Ukraine.
Kenya faces a review in the US Senate of whether it deserves to retain the position given its ties with Iran and China in particular.
With Kenyan newspapers reporting an imminent trade deal with Beijing with zero apparent trade barriers, as Trump imposes 10% tariffs on Kenya, Ruto implied there was little choice which side to pick.
'I have a bit of a problem with some of our friends,' Ruto told an investment event in Nairobi this week, citing worries about the closer relations with Beijing.
'But it's what I must do for Kenya.'
Trump's administration sees its embrace of tariffs as key to its approach to the wider world, including matters of war and peace including Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan and efforts to stem cross-border drug flows from Mexico and Canada.
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eNCA
an hour ago
- eNCA
Putin-Trump summit: what we know so far
US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will hold talks in Alaska next Friday in a bid to end the war in Ukraine, which was triggered by Russia's February 2022 invasion. There was yet no mention of Ukraine's participation in the meeting, despite multiple calls from Kyiv and Europe that the war-torn country must be part of the negotiations. This has sparked fury in Kyiv, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying his country "won't give land to the occupier" and that "any decisions without Ukraine, are also decisions against peace". Trump has spent his first months in office trying to broker peace -- after boasting he could end the war in 24 hours -- but multiple rounds of peace talks, phone calls and diplomatic visits have failed to yield a breakthrough. Here is what we know about the summit so far: - When and where - On his Truth Social site on Friday, Trump announced that his meeting with Putin would be held in the far-north US state of Alaska on August 15, which was later confirmed by the Kremlin. The announcement came after days of both sides indicating the two leaders would hold a summit next week. The Kremlin confirmed the summit in Alaska on Friday, calling it "quite logical." "They would like to meet with me, I'll do whatever I can to stop the killing," Trump said on Thursday, speaking of both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. At the White House Friday, Trump said "there'll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both" Ukraine and Russia, without providing further details. - Why Alaska? - The meeting will be held in Alaska, which Russia sold to the United States in 1867. The western tip of the state is not far -- just across the Bering Strait -- from the easternmost part of Russia. "Alaska and the Arctic are also where our countries' economic interests intersect, and there are prospects for large-scale, mutually beneficial projects," Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said in a statement on Telegram. "But, of course, the presidents themselves will undoubtedly focus on discussing options for achieving a long-term peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis," he added. Ushakov also expressed hope that next time the two presidents would meet on Russian territory. "A corresponding invitation has already been sent to the US president," he added. An International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Putin -- which obliges members to detain the Russian leader if he visits their country -- had been thought to narrow the potential number of venues. Putin had previously mentioned the United Arab Emirates as a possible host for the talks, while media speculated Turkey, China or India could be probable venues. - Ukraine not involved - Zelensky has been pushing to make it a three-way summit and has frequently said meeting Putin is the only way to make progress towards peace. In his address hours after Moscow and Washington confirmed the meeting, Zelensky called any decisions made without Ukraine "stillborn". Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff proposed a trilateral meeting when he held talks with Putin earlier this week, but the Russian leader has appeared to rule out meeting his Ukrainian counterpart. At talks in Istanbul in June, Russian negotiators said a Putin-Zelensky meeting could only take place at the "final phase" of negotiations, once the two sides had agreed on terms for peace. Asked if Putin had to meet Zelensky as a prerequisite for their summit, Trump said on Friday: "No, he doesn't." - When did they last meet? - Trump and Putin last sat together in 2019 at a G20 summit meeting in Japan during Trump's first term. They have spoken by telephone several times since January. Putin previously held a summit with Trump in Helsinki in 2018. Trump raised eyebrows at the time by appearing to side with Putin over the US intelligence community's finding that Russia had interfered in the US election to support the New York tycoon. The last time Putin met a US president in the United States was during talks with Barack Obama at a UN General Assembly in 2015. - Negotiating positions - Despite the flurry of diplomacy and multiple rounds of peace talks, Russia and Ukraine appear no closer to agreeing on an end to the fighting. Putin has rejected calls by the United States, Ukraine and Europe for an immediate ceasefire. At talks in June, Russia demanded Ukraine pull its forces out of four regions Moscow claims to have annexed, demanded Ukraine commit to being a neutral state, shun Western military support and be excluded from joining NATO. Kyiv wants an immediate ceasefire and has said it will never recognize Russian control over its sovereign territory -- though it acknowledged securing the return of land captured by Russia would have to come through diplomacy, not on the battlefield.
IOL News
3 hours ago
- IOL News
Economists warn of job losses as US tariffs threaten South African trade
The South African sugar industry is facing the threat of collapsing and job losses as a result of US President Donald Trump imposing 30% tariffs on the country's exports. Image: Karen Sandison / Independent Newspapers In the wake of the recent 30% tariff hike imposed by the United States, South Africa's sugar and automotive industries are bracing for significant upheaval. Economists warn that these tariffs could spell disaster for local businesses, jeopardising exports and leading to alarming job losses. An economist has warned that losing the market will collapse the industry after President Donald Trump's 30% tariff hike imposed on goods exported to the country's second biggest trade partner. Economist Miyelani Mkhabela shared these sentiments as some local exporters already expressed concern about their future. 'People have a reason to panic because the tariffs will make it difficult for South African products to appeal to the American market,' said Mkhabela. He said small industries are facing the danger of collapsing because although the normal trade deal between South Africa and the US might be restored after the end of Trump's presidency, 'four years is a lot for a company.' 'When the market is closed (through exorbitant tariffs), it means a lot for small businesses that are sending products to the American market would suffer, as their clients would say your products are 30% higher. 'That would collapse the South African manufacturing system because we depend on the US as our second trade partner,' he said. He said South Africa cannot easily find a country that could replace the American market, which 'is bigger than what we are sending to the whole of Africa'. However, he said the African economy would recover after four years as it recovered from the global financial crisis and 'is still recovering from the global health (Covid-19 pandemic). But after Trump, many emerging companies will no longer exist because they will fail to repay bank loans. SA Farmers Development Association (SAFDA) Executive Chairman Dr Siyabonga Madlala, who is involved in sugar manufacturing, is concerned that while businesses have no power over politically influenced tariffs, they are the ones bearing the brunt. Madlala anticipated a loss of millions of rand, a situation that would result in alarming job losses. He said the South African Sugar Association (SASA)'s lots of sugar meant for the US might go to waste. 'America, through AGOA (the African Growth and Opportunity Act), has given us a lucrative market for about 24,000 tons of sugar exports, so with the imposition of tariffs, our sugar won't be attractive to our US consumers as it is now becoming expensive. 'It forces US consumers to look for alternatives rather than buying from us because our sugar becomes 30% more expensive,' said Madlala. South African competitors in supplying the US with sugar are Mexico, Brazil, Australia, and several Central American and Caribbean nations. He estimated that, through the tariffs, SASA will lose R168 million from its annual revenue. According to Madlala, the US market, which found South African sugar affordable under the AGOA agreement, may look for alternative countries to buy from. 'The reason is that lots of other countries are subsidised, therefore they can afford to still sell sugar than us, as we are not subsidised but working on our own,' said Madlala. He said reducing production would cause job losses and the shutdown of sugar mills. 'Once you try to lower the production, it means some farms will shut down or diversify. By that, it means that sugar mills will lose sugar cane supply, which is the lifeblood of the sugar mill,' he said. He said the tariffs came at the wrong time when the government's master plan was succeeding in reviving some major sugar mills, including Tongaat Hulett, which in the process was coming out of business rescue. 'While we are appreciating the master plan's initiative, we are now bombarded with the tariffs,' said Madlala. Influential organisations such as FW De Klerk Foundation recently called for the country to expand its trade partners rather than relying on the US. Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen said the government was also reaching out to other countries. However, Madlala said finding an alternative market was not easy to do overnight. National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers (NAACAM) CEO Renai Moothilal told the media that the automotive industry was already feeling the effects, as some companies have started to lose US deals. 'We are already seeing new contracts, especially for the US, being cancelled or not pursued, putting one of the country's most critical manufacturing sectors at risk,' Moothilal said. Build One SA (BOSA) called on Ramaphosa to engage directly with the US Congress members, who will decide on the fate of AGOA, and tell them that over 500,000 US jobs are linked to trade with South Africa. Another economist, Khulekani Mathe, commended Ramaphosa for continuing to negotiate with Trump, as he cannot immediately find an alternative market. He said it was not guaranteed that South Africa/US trade would recover after Trump's departure. 'It is dependent on whether we are to negotiate anytime between now and four for more favourable terms. The economic recovery would depend on whether the country can find an alternative market to send the volume of products that are sent to the US, something that can not materialise in the short term. Professor Bonke Dumisa said Trump was miscalculating to think tariffs would benefit his economy because 'Economic History shows us that no one wins the tariff wars'. 'Purportedly, it is said that the USA wants to open space for its businesses to recapture the market space they lost as they focused on moving abroad to produce more competitively priced products. Unfortunately, USA businesses priced themselves out of the markets. 'The South African businesses affected by these Tariffs must look for alternative markets. There is very little that the government can do to help these businesses,' said Dumisa. [email protected]
IOL News
3 hours ago
- IOL News
Ungenaphi? Where to from here?
For us, it has to address inequality, poverty and historic injustices while doing so. It must recognise that corruption and failing service delivery are not side issues, says the writer. What use is talking about carbon credits when people don't have clean water? How do we talk about renewable energy when people are still freezing in informal settlements? And honestly? The world's a mess. From Palestine to Gaza, Sudan to Somalia, Ukraine to China and from and from and from. We just did not get it right. AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL scientist the preface of my write is centred around environmental concerns and climate change. However, as broad and overwhelming as those may seem, they can also feel disconnected from the everyday struggles we face in South Africa. For us, it has to address inequality, poverty and historic injustices while doing so. It must recognise that corruption and failing service delivery are not side issues. This means it tackles the lack of basic services such as water, sanitation and healthcare. And it does this while recognising that corruption undermines any chance of a just transition, because public funds are meant to serve communities and meet people's most basic needs. Capitalism and many other "ism's" has flipped us all right over haven't they? South Africa exists as a developing country forwarding the African continent in policy and discourse pursuing a deep, just transition. But what does that even mean when you're living here? It can not only be about pursuing renewable energy with all the technical aspects around wind, solar and hydropower. So a deep transition isn't just a buzz word. It can't be. And it's not just for supporting green technology. It is there to address the root causes and work from bottom up with the people. Because how can you green the economy while communities burn down to keep warm? And we've seen it - people freezing in winter because of poor housing infrastructure. Families illegally connecting electricity just to cook, then turning to gas or fires, which lead to blazes that destroy entire settlements. People losing all they have. People losing their lives. Those injured hoping for some sort of relief at a local clinic or hospital, praying for staff that would be available to assist them upon arrival or to even access medicine that could be provided to numb out the fact that they just lost everything, never mind the physical wounds they carry. My words fail me when I think of our healthcare system. I, personally, am terribly afraid to step foot in government hospitals, the stories heard are always painful to the ears. But we have a Constitution, don't we? It says: 'Everyone has the right to have access to adequate housing.' 'Everyone has the right to sufficient food and water.' 'Everyone has the right to an environment that is not harmful to their health or well-being.' Yet we still have people living without safe homes. Without clean water. Without access to a clinic unless they take three taxis and pray there's staff. So we ask again: Ungenaphi? Where to from here? When I did my honours, I looked at small-scale fisheries - and the gap between what's written in policy and what actually happens on the ground is wild. And this is not just one policy. The gap is everywhere. It's no surprise young people feel frustrated. We see through the big talk. We have been disillusioned. As a young person living in this country, I say a deep just transition isn't just a buzzword. It's not a checklist. It's a call to completely reimagine how we serve people - and who gets left behind when we don't. It starts from the bottom up, not from boardroom deals. It starts with holding municipalities accountable. It starts with us demanding what we're owed - not as favours, but as rights. We're not asking for miracles. We're asking for the basics. We're asking for what's already been promised. 'The people shall govern.' The Constitution isn't just a document - it's a promise. We have the tools. Now we need courage.
