How India's Kinetic Action On Myanmar Terror Groups Struck At China's Shadow Theatre

News18

a day ago

Insurgent groups, armed by Chinese grey market arms networks, have long acted as proxies for Beijing in Myanmar—guarding critical infrastructure linked to Belt & Road Initiative
The drone strikes reportedly carried out by the Indian Army on insurgent camps in Myanmar mark a direct challenge to China's 'deniability model", where Beijing has relied on non-state actors—such as insurgent groups and private security contractors—to exert influence in neighboring countries while maintaining plausible deniability, CNN-News18 has learnt.
Top intelligence sources told CNN-News18 that India's decisive action has not only exposed this model but also 'strategically undermined China's reach into key areas, particularly Myanmar's border regions and parts of India's north-eastern states like Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh".
India's strikes focused on the Naga Self-Administered Zone, hitting locations such as ULFA(I)'s Eastern Command headquarters at Hoyat Basti and 779 Camp in Waktham Basti. Additionally, camps of the NSCN-K, PLA, and RPF were also struck by Indian drones.
The ULFA(I), in a press statement, said Nayan Asom alias Nayan Medhi, who was the 'chairman' of its 'lower council', was killed in the attacks. It said two other senior leaders, 'brigadier' Ganesh Asom and 'colonel' Pradip Asom, were killed in the second round of attacks during Nayan Asom's funeral. At least 19 others were injured, it added.
However, when contacted, a defence spokesperson said there 'are no inputs of such an operation".
The timing and execution of these strikes are no accident. India's operation goes far beyond targeting insurgent groups. By dismantling the leadership of ULFA-I and NSCN-K in Myanmar's Sagaing region, India has effectively neutralised a key component of China's regional security apparatus.
Intel sources said these insurgent groups, armed by Chinese grey market arms networks operating in Yunnan, have long acted as proxies for Beijing in Myanmar—guarding critical infrastructure linked to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The Kyaukpyu–Mandalay corridor, a vital stretch of infrastructure that connects China to the Indian Ocean, has been one of the primary areas where China has used these insurgent groups to ensure the safety of its energy and logistics supply chains. With Myanmar's Sagaing region now facing increased instability, China's ambitions to bypass the Malacca Strait and secure its energy routes through Myanmar are at risk.
By targeting these camps, India has struck a blow deep within China's informal security buffer in the region. The damage is not just to insurgent forces but to a wider strategic framework designed to safeguard Beijing's investments in Myanmar, including nickel mining zones, future rail projects, and other BRI-linked ventures.
Myanmar's Junta Under Pressure
For Myanmar's military junta, which has been struggling to maintain control over large parts of the country, particularly in Sagaing, Chin, and Magway regions, the timing of India's airstrikes could be a mixed blessing. The junta, already facing fierce resistance from the People's Defence Forces (PDF), has been losing ground to the ethnic militias. Additionally, Myanmar's increasing dissatisfaction with Chinese interference has brought the country closer to New Delhi in recent months, the sources added.
While the junta may not have officially aligned itself with India, the attacks on ULFA-I and NSCN-K may shift Myanmar's stance. The junta has shown signs of frustration with Chinese influence in its internal affairs, and this new pressure from India could push Myanmar to recalibrate its relationship with Beijing.
Sources confirmed that ULFA-I and NSCN-K have been integral to China's shadow operations in Myanmar. These insurgent groups have not only been armed by China but have also provided covert security and logistical support to BRI projects in the region. In essence, these groups have acted as private militias, securing vital infrastructure for Chinese interests while indirectly working for Chinese private security contractors (PSCs).
India's precision strikes have severely disrupted these networks, and now, as the conflict escalates in the region, China may be forced to reassess its security arrangements. The destabilisation of BRI supply lines in Sagaing is particularly significant, as it raises the costs for Chinese private security firms. This comes at a time when China has enjoyed relatively low-cost security advantages in Myanmar, allowing it to expand its footprint without heavy investment.
The ongoing ethnic clashes, triggered by the actions of Myanmar's military junta and the increasing reach of India's strikes, threaten to further disrupt this crucial security apparatus. With these new developments, China faces mounting challenges in maintaining a secure environment for its BRI projects in Myanmar, and the cost of ensuring stability in the region could soon prove untenable.
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