Game of Thrones economics: US rules, China leverages, India waits

Economic Times

3 days ago

AI generated image for representation purposes.
In Game of Thrones , when Littlefinger smugly claims 'knowledge is power,' Cersei Lannister calmly orders her guards to seize him, draw their swords, and hold one to his throat, only to stop them with a word.'Power is power,' she reminds him.That scene hits hard because it isn't just fantasy. It's a blunt truth.
Uday Kotak gets that.
'Power is power,' he says, echoing Cersei, not as a throwaway line, but as a principle. In his view, Donald Trump didn't build power. He inherited it: the strength of the US dollar, the dominance of the financial system, the military muscle, and America's unmatched economic clout. It's a foundation built over decades. Trump's just sitting in the chair.
'And he's leveraging that,' Kotak tells Republic's Arnab Goswami. 'You can do it in the short run, and he is.'China, he says, understands power too. It knows what the US wants and what it can't do without. Rare earths. Mass manufacturing. A giant consumer market. 'China has leverage,' Kotak says. 'They have built it. And they use it.'India doesn't. Not yet.The data backs him up.The US is still the world's largest economy, issuer of the reserve currency, and India's biggest trading partner. For the fourth consecutive year, the US held this position in the financial year 2024–25, with a total bilateral trade of $131.84 billion, according to official data released by the Ministry of Commerce.When Trump slapped a 25% tariff on Indian exports this month, it landed with force.And China? They control over 90% of global rare earth processing, as per Reuters. They're the world's biggest manufacturer. The US ran a $295 billion trade deficit with China last year, proof of its dependence.Beijing knows it. That's why, when Washington raises tariffs or postures tough, China doesn't blink. It doesn't need to shout. It has leverage.India, by contrast, is still catching up. It's the world's fourth-largest economy by size. But scale alone doesn't equal power. In 2025, India's trade deficit with China hit a record $99.2 billion. As Kotak says, it still imports electronics, solar gear, even 'rakhis and Ganeshas.''India has to dramatically increase its speed for building raw power,' Kotak says. GDP targets aren't enough. You need the ability to say no, to protect domestic interests.And power without credibility doesn't last. 'Trust takes a long time to build,' he warns, 'but can be eroded very fast.' America isn't just dominant because of tanks or trade. People trust the dollar. They trust the system. But Kotak believes Trump is burning through that trust. The US will pay for it eventually.Still, that doesn't make India stronger. 'We have to find our own journey,' Kotak says, 'independent of these two.'That means avoiding traps. Trump keeps 'hyphenating' India with Pakistan, provoking on purpose. The smart move? Don't bite. 'We have to be clear,' Kotak says. 'There are areas where we may have to agree, and areas where we must take a stand.'Even then, he's pragmatic. 'The man has a huge ego. Somebody has to take care of that.'While the US imposes and China resists, India hesitates. Kotak brings up the EU. They caved, zero duty on US goods into Europe, 15% on European goods going the other way. Only China stood its ground, because it could, he said.That's where India wants to be, and isn't.'We can't give in on everything, especially agriculture and dairy,' Kotak says. 'We have our farmers, we have Amul to protect.' But defending interests takes more than sentiment. It takes power.So Kotak asks the real question: 'What stops India from posturing for a better economic relationship with China?' It's a reminder that power lies in options, and the confidence to use them.