Here's why ESPN gives 49ers best odds to win NFC West despite ranking Rams as better team
Here's why ESPN gives 49ers best odds to win NFC West despite ranking Rams as better team
The NFC West title race will once again be a tight one in 2025. The Los Angeles Rams are defending champions, but the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals could be hot on their heels after retooling this offseason.
ESPN's analytics department predicted the Rams and 49ers will be the top contenders for the division crown, but with an odd twist.
While ESPN ranked the Rams slightly higher than the 49ers on their Football Power Index (plus-1.8 for L.A. and plus-1.3 for S.F.), the 49ers were given a better probability to win the division. The difference came down to, ironically, the fact that Rams will face a tougher slate of games in 2025 than the 49ers.
"FPI narrowly has the Rams as the best team in the NFC West. But the favorite to win the division? That would (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams' 34%," ESPN's Seth Walder wrote. "Why the discrepancy? Strength of schedule. No team enters 2025 with an easier slate than the 49ers, who not only get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the rest of their division, but also the Giants, Browns and Bears due to finishing last in the division in 2024. In comparison, the Rams must face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as part of their first-place schedule."
Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The Rams are a victim of their success and now will have a harder time defending their title against a healthier 49ers team.
Head coach Sean McVay doesn't have a great history against Kyle Shanahan's 49ers squad, either. His Rams teams are 7-10 since 2017, although McVay did win the past three games dating back to the end of the 2023 season.
At the very least, though, it'll be a fun race to the finish. The Rams play the 49ers in Weeks 5 and 10 this year.
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