Economists Warn ECB to Avoid Delaying Over Last Two Rate Cuts
The European Central Bank will lower interest rates twice more, according to a Bloomberg survey, but respondents warned it shouldn't wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over.
Respondents predict quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September's meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump's reordering of global trade. That would bring the deposit rate to 1.75%, where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.
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CNBC
17 minutes ago
- CNBC
ETFs and corporate treasuries should support bitcoin's uptrend in June as tariff uncertainty lingers
In the tug of war between the macroeconomic and crypto adoption stories, blockchain adoption is starting to taking over the bitcoin narrative. Institutions and corporations combined to drive up bitcoin in May. The cryptocurrency ended the month about 10% higher, its second straight monthly rise, driven by strong inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds and continued purchases of bitcoin by corporate treasury departments. Bitcoin ETFs saw $5.6 billion in inflows this month, when the number of bitcoin held by public companies grew 4% to $85.6 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries . Investors expect the trend to continue in June, and to benefit bitcoin's long-term performance. The uncertainty of President Donald Trump's tariff policy has so far helped bitcoin more than hurt it – the initial sell-off in risk assets after Trump's tariffs were unveiled in April pulled it down to about $76,000, but bitcoin still finished the month up 13.5%. That said, analysts say not to dismiss the downside risk just yet. "The fact that significant policy adjustments can be made at any time, especially around tariffs, makes near-term pricing incredibly difficult," said Chris Rhine, head of liquid active strategies at Galaxy Digital. "The cumulative weight of this policy uncertainty will likely lead to a sharper slowdown in economic activity, particularly in consumer-driven end markets, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy support." In other words, lower interest rates. 1M mountain Bitcoin (BTC) in May Investors have cheered crypto's seeming decoupling from equities in recent weeks, benefiting when there's liquidity in the market and stocks do well, but also in risk-off scenarios where crypto has provided a haven from uncertainty. That best-of-both-worlds scenario has helped support bitcoin's price and bring new buyers to the market. Unfortunately, that dynamic hasn't been meaningfully tested yet, said Federico Brokate, head of U.S. business at 21Shares, a financial technology company focused on providing access to cryptocurrency investments through exchange-traded products. "The macro story is still very important," Brokate said. "If we continue to see that in June, that's going to be very bullish for the asset, price wise. We haven't seen this play out over a sustained period of time, so this is something that a lot of us will be paying attention to over the next few weeks." After reaching a new all-time high on May 22 of $111,999, bitcoin retreated to the $104,000 level Friday after Trump reignited fears of a trade war with China . In a social media post, the president claimed China "violated" its current trade agreement with the U.S., one day after Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a Fox News interview that U.S.-China trade talks "are a bit stalled." The shadow of unpredictability aside, investors are optimistic about bitcoin's direction, primarily monitoring bitcoin ETF flows, corporate treasury announcements and regulatory developments. After an early block, the 'GENIUS' Act, short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins, advanced to the Senate on May 19 and is likely to come up for a floor vote in early June. Whether it passes with bipartisan support or fails to pass, the outcome will likely have an impact on sentiment around bitcoin, Galaxy's Rhine said. Wells Fargo expects "a difficult road ahead" in light of a separate bill to regulate stablecoins in the House, analyst Andrew Bauch said in a note this week. From a technical standpoint, looking solely at price charts, bulls are likely to hold the reins in June, according to Tracy Jin, chief operating officer of crypto exchange MEXC. "[They'll] aim to defend the $109,000 support level, a potential target for downward pressure from hedge funds holding put options," she said. With a new record behind it, bitcoin has now opened the door to the $113,000 to $115,000 zone. That represents "serious resistance on the way to a strategic target of $130,000, Jin said, adding: "If the current pace is maintained and the $115,000 level is successfully overcome, the price may reach $130,000 in June."
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump fast-tracks Utah uranium mine, but industry revival may wait for higher prices
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — In the southeastern Utah desert famous for red rock arches and canyon labyrinths, the long-dormant uranium mining industry is looking to revive under President Donald Trump. Hundreds of abandoned uranium mines dot the West's arid landscapes, hazardous reminders of the promise and peril of nuclear power during the Cold War. Now, one mine that the Trump administration fast-tracked for regulatory approval could reopen for the first time since the 1980s. Normally it would have taken months, if not years, for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management to review plans to reopen a project like Anfield Energy's Velvet-Wood mine 35 miles (56 kilometers) south of Moab. But the bureau's regulators green-lit the project in just 11 days under a 'national energy emergency' Trump has declared that allows expedited environmental reviews for energy projects. More permits and approvals will be needed, plus site work to get the mine operating again. And the price of uranium would have to rise enough to make domestic production financially sustainable. If that happens, it would mean revival — and jobs — to an industry that locally has been moribund since the Ronald Reagan era. 'President Trump has made it clear that our energy security is national security," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in announcing the fast-tracking policy in April. 'These emergency procedures reflect our unwavering commitment to protecting both.' More fast approvals appear likely. Trump's order also applies to oil, gas, coal, biofuel and hydropower projects — but not renewable energy — on federal lands. Conditions are ripe for more U.S. uranium mining Global uranium prices are double what they were at a low point seven years ago and, for the past year, the U.S. has banned uranium imports from Russia due to that country's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. More domestic mining would address a major imbalance. The U.S. imports about 98% of the uranium it uses to generate 30% of the world's nuclear energy. More than two-thirds of U.S. imports come from the world's top three uranium-mining countries: Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan. Less government regulation won't spur more U.S. uranium mining by itself. The market matters. And while spot-market prices are up from several years ago, they're down about a third from their recent high in early 2024. While some new uranium mining and processing projects have been announced, their number falls far short of a surge. That suggests prices need to rise — and stay there — for a true industry revival, said John Uhrie, a former uranium executive who now works in the cement industry. 'Until the price goes up dramatically, you're not going to be able to actually put these places into operation,' Uhrie said. 'You need significant capital on the ground.' Still, the industry is showing new life in the Southwest. Anfield Energy, a Canadian company, also looks to reopen the Shootaring Canyon uranium mill in southern Utah near Glen Canyon National Recreation Area. It closed in the early 1980s. A uranium mill turns raw ore into yellowcake, a powdery substance later processed elsewhere into nuclear fuel. Anfield officials did not return messages seeking comment on plans to reopen the mill and the Velvet-Wood mine. Energy Fuels, another Canadian company which ranks as the top U.S. uranium miner, opened the Pinyon Plain mine about 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the Grand Canyon in late 2023. And just off U.S. 191 in southeastern Utah is a hub of the industry, Uranium Fuels' White Mesa mill, the country's only uranium mill still in operation. In Moab, uranium has a long — and mixed — legacy These days, Moab is a desert tourism hot spot bustling with outdoor enthusiasts. But the town of 5,200 has a deeper history with uranium. Nods to Moab's post-World War II mining heyday can been spotted around town — the Atomic Hair Salon isn't just named for its blowout hairstyles. The biggest reminder is the Moab Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action project, a 480-acre (194-hectare) site just outside town. The decades-long, $1 billion U.S. Department of Energy effort to haul off toxic tailings that were leaching into the Colorado River upstream from the Grand Canyon and Lake Mead should wrap up within five more years. That mill's polluting legacy makes some Moab residents wary of restarting uranium mining and processing, especially after the Trump administration cut short their ability to weigh in on the Velvet-Wood mine plans. 'This was a process I would have been involved in,' said Sarah Fields, director of the local group Uranium Watch. 'They provided no opportunity for the public to say, 'You need to look at this, you need to look at that.'" Grand Canyon Trust, a group critical of the Pinyon Plain mine as a danger to groundwater, points out that the U.S. nuclear industry isn't at risk of losing access to uranium. 'This is all being done under the assumption there is some energy emergency and that is just not true,' said Amber Reimondo, the group's energy director. Supply and demand will decide uranium mining's future Hundreds of miles to the north, other nuclear energy projects point to the U.S. industry's future. With Bill Gates' support, TerraPower is building a 345-megawatt sodium-cooled fast reactor outside Kemmerer in western Wyoming that could, in theory, meet demand for carbon-free power at lower costs and with less construction time than conventional reactor units. Meanwhile, about 40% of uranium mined in the U.S. in 2024 came from four Wyoming 'in-situ' mines that use wells to dissolve uranium in underground deposits and pump it to the surface without having to dig big holes or send miners underground. Similar mines in Texas and Nebraska and stockpiled ore processed at White Mesa accounted for the rest. None — as yet — came from mines in Utah. Powering electric cars and computing technology will require more electricity in the years ahead. Nuclear power offers a zero-carbon, round-the-clock option. Meeting the demand for nuclear fuel domestically is another matter. With prices higher, almost 700,000 pounds of yellowcake was produced in the U.S. in 2024 — up more than a dozen-fold from the year before but still far short of the 32 million pounds imported into the U.S. Even if mining increases, it's not clear that U.S. capacity to turn the ore into fuel would keep pace, said Uhrie, the former uranium mining executive. "Re-establishing a viable uranium industry from soup to nuts — meaning from mining through processing to yellow cake production, to conversion, to enrichment to produce nuclear fuel — remains a huge lift," Uhrie said. ___ Gruver reported from Cheyenne, Wyoming. Mead Gruver And Hannah Schoenbaum, The Associated Press
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
China's factory activity contraction eases after trade war truce
(Bloomberg) — China's factory activity contracted at a slower rate in May after a reprieve in the tariff war with the US unclogged trade flows, even as weak domestic demand continues to weigh on the economy. Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Where the Wild Children's Museums Are The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5, versus 49 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday. That matched the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The non-manufacturing measure of activity in construction and services fell to 50.3 from 50.4 in April, the statistics office said. That compares with a forecast of 50.5. The composite index rose to 50.4. The PMI figures are the first official data available each month to provide a snapshot of the health of the Chinese economy. The latest readings capture the initial aftermath of the trade truce, after Beijing and Washington agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days beginning May 14. The strength of manufacturing in the months ahead is still in question given an uncertain export outlook, and especially as tensions rise again in recent days with Washington. Although the US lowered the average rate of tariffs to roughly 40% following talks in Geneva, that level is still enough to reduce American imports from China by around 70% over the medium term, according to estimates from Bloomberg Economics. Even so, the reprieve on tariffs has sent trade between China and the US surging. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg lifted forecasts for growth and exports this year following the agreement in Geneva, but still expect deflationary pressures to get worse in China, which has already seen economy-wide prices fall for two straight years. Gross domestic product is forecast to expand 4.5% this year, based on a Bloomberg survey conducted in late May, still significantly lower than the around 5% target set by Chinese policy makers. Economists expect exports will grow 1.1% in 2025 versus a year ago, an upgrade from the 1% contraction they expected in April. —With assistance from Zhang Dingmin. YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol AI Is Helping Executives Tackle the Dreaded Post-Vacation Inbox ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
