MLB trade deadline tiers 1.0: From buyers to sellers to… the AL Central?

New York Times

6 hours ago

One side effect of MLB expanding the playoff field to 12 teams in 2022 was a big decrease in obvious trade deadline 'sellers' and a big increase in the murky middle, where even sub-.500 teams can see a path to October — even if they aren't necessarily incentivized to push all of their chips into the middle as 'buyers.'
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With roughly five weeks until this season's July 31 trade deadline, 21 of 30 teams began this week with playoff odds above 20 percent, according to FanGraphs, and more than half of the league has at least a one-in-three shot of reaching the postseason. But we know that many of those teams with decent odds in June won't be aggressive buyers.
Our goal today is to group the 30 teams into trade deadline tiers based on whether they should be buying or selling, and how aggressively they should act within that overall approach. We'll update the tiers as the deadline nears, with more of a focus on individual team outlooks in the days leading up to July 31.
The Tigers, Dodgers and Yankees are the only teams in baseball with a better than 95 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, but the Phillies and (until very recently) the Mets aren't far behind. The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are the sport's biggest spenders, and all three reached the LCS last season. They're clearly all-in on championship ambition. The Tigers are financial outliers, but they're another historic franchise, and they've made a case — at least at times — for being the best in baseball this season. After almost a decade of irrelevance, there should be no lack of motivation to make moves and reassert themselves as serious threats to win a championship.
Then, there are the Phillies. A recent hot streak has put them neck-and-neck with the recently scuffling Mets atop the NL East, as the playoff odds having climbed considerably in the past week. But even before the climb, the Phillies were firmly in Tier 1 territory. They are still firmly within their window of opportunity, but Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are approaching free agency, while Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are playing their age-32 seasons, and Zack Wheeler has already turned 35. The Phillies have been in the championship mix for four years now, and the clock's ticking to finally win one. An outfielder? A closer? A third baseman? All of the above? The Phillies should be as committed as anyone to building a roster with a chance.
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Basically, these teams look like standard trade deadline buyers: imperfect rosters with needs to address, but still with reasons to believe that a deep October run is possible.
The Cubs and Astros have excellent playoff odds at the moment, but they feel a little less all-in than the teams in Tier 1. The playoff odds aren't nearly as good for the Mariners and Padres, but each has gone through stretches when a meaningful October seemed likely, and they haven't fallen far enough to think of them as sellers just yet. (If the Padres, in particular, get to that point, the impact on the trade deadline could be massive given the chips they could move.)
But what to do with the Giants? They've already made a Tier 1 move by trading for Rafael Devers. Does that make the Giants an unmistakable Tier 1 team, or was Devers a special case putting them firmly in Tier 2 territory now that they've made their splash? Despite being aggressive early, we find it difficult to think of the Giants as one of the teams most likely to be super aggressive a month from now.
Not so long ago, it would have been perfectly valid to declare any one of these teams dead in the water. The Brewers' playoff odds slipped to 10 percent last month, the Rays got down to 11 percent, and the Blue Jays had only briefly risen above 45 percent — and they were mostly in the 30s — until just a few weeks ago.
Are any of these three all-in buyers? Probably not. At least, not right now. The Brewers' odds are still relatively underwhelming (40 percent or so), and both the Blue Jays and Rays have been in playoff contention for only a short amount of time. But things are trending in a good direction for all three. It's at least worth wondering if they might hold onto Rhys Hoskins, Bo Bichette and Pete Fairbanks, and maybe even add a little bit at the deadline. Too early for any one of these teams to commit one way or the other, but they've put themselves back in the mix.
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These three teams seem most clearly stuck between a short-term opportunity and a long-term plan. The Cardinals came into this season with a stated goal to rebuild, but have largely outperformed expectations. The Diamondbacks are very much alive, but they're in a tough division, haven't pitched as well as expected, and already lost Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery. And this week, Corbin Carroll hit the IL with a chip fracture in his left wrist.
The Red Sox had a young position core to begin with and have called up each of their top three prospects, but they're still struggling to get above .500 (and, most notably, they've already traded away their best hitter).
There's little sense that any of these three teams is in position to completely rip their rosters apart — the Red Sox and Diamondbacks in particular are built around young hitters who aren't going to be traded, and the Cardinals' playoff odds aren't all that different from the Brewers and Padres — but each could be selective in who they trade and how they reinforce. The Red Sox and Cardinals could trade their closers (Aroldis Chapman and Ryan Helsley) for a meaningful return, while entrusting the ninth inning to someone younger. The Diamondbacks could deal slugging third baseman Eugenio Suárez, while opening the position for top prospect Jordan Lawlar.
We're dumping the middle of the AL Central into its own tier because, well, just look at this playoff odds graphic from FanGraphs.
The Tigers, clearly, have separated themselves at the top of the division, and the White Sox are practically invisible at the bottom, and in the middle are these three teams. They're not exactly trending up — quite the opposite — but they've not exactly dropped out, either. The AL wild-card race is going to twist and turn a lot in the next few months, and it's conceivable that one of these AL Central teams will get hot and decide to go for it while another will turn cold and decide to sell. A third could attempt to thread the needle.
But it's anyone's guess which of these teams will end up in which category.
We've spent three months waiting for the Braves and Rangers to make a run. Their rosters have plenty of talent, including remnants of recent championships, but it just hasn't happened. Both have a positive run differential but a losing record, and now Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle are on the IL. Time is running out for a couple of preseason favorites to actually make a case for being buyers at the deadline.
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The Reds weren't preseason darlings, but they did seem to have a shot in a wide-open NL Central. They have a positive run differential — which would suggest the possibility of being a playoff team — but they're only a bit over.500 and just haven't gained much traction this season. Their playoff odds have been consistently in the single digits. Maybe they could be more tailors than sellers, but it would be hard to justify mortgaging the future for a last-ditch effort in the present.
The main thing keeping these teams out of the lowest tier is: what are they going to sell? The A's most valuable assets are young players who don't cost a ton of money, the White Sox sold last summer and are once again bare — Luis Robert Jr. has been worse than last season, and their best player might be Rule 5 pick Shane Smith — and the Pirates are understandably unwilling to trade Paul Skenes.
So, these three teams are clearly out of contention, but they're also in a position to sell in a fairly typical way. They'll surely try to move some veterans, but their most valuable trade chips either aren't that valuable or are young enough to hold onto for the future.
Most of this final tier could have been predicted five months ago. There was, perhaps, hope that the Nationals or Angels would show some improvement, but it wouldn't have been shocking to know they'd be firmly in sell mode five weeks before the trade deadline. The Marlins are obviously rebuilding, and the Rockies have been doing … something. They should be rebuilding. They should be selling. But history suggests they'll once again sit at the bottom of the NL West and do very little to actually move the needle at the deadline.
The Orioles are the big surprise. Sure, there was every reason to question their rotation heading into the season, but it's been worse than even the most pessimistic of predictions, and the young core of position players hasn't hit enough to lift them out of the muck. Those young players, though, do give the Orioles reason to believe in a quick return to relevance, meaning a massive fire sale of anyone not bolted down for next season — Cedric Mullins, Zack Eflin, Ryan O'Hearn, Ramón Laureano, and others — feels inevitable.
(Top illustration by Kelsea Peterson / The Athletic; Photos by Thearon Henderson, Matthew Grimes, Mark Blinch / Getty Images)