Ether Volatility Spikes on Rally as Bitcoin Edges Back Toward Record Highs
BTC led gains among majors in the past 24 hours, with Solana's SOL (SOL), XRP (XRP), dogecoin (DOGE), and BNB Chain's BNB (BNB) rising nearly 1%, but reversing all profit-taking from the weekend to start the week in green.
The S&P 500 recovered from last week's post-payrolls dip to near all-time highs, while the Nasdaq set a new record on strong earnings, shrugging off political noise and fresh U.S. import taxes.
ETH has outperformed sharply against this macro backdrop, driving a divergence in short-dated implied volatility between majors.
'BTC IV remains near all-time lows while ETH has jumped materially,' said Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus, told CoinDesk in a Monday note.
'Term structure on ETH is inverted, with long-dated vol expected to settle near 70%, while BTC's curve is the opposite — short-dated vol heavily compressed with spot stuck around $120K. A month ago, markets priced just a 5% chance of ETH hitting $4.5K in August; spot has far outpaced those expectations," he added.
ETH's strength has been underpinned by pro-crypto regulatory signals and heavy inflows into ETFs, with traders betting on a retest of its all-time high. Bitcoin, which has been slower to respond, is now showing signs of catching up, suggesting that institutions are less hesitant to add exposure across the board.
'Given the strong rally over the weekend, we expect prices for both BTC and ETH to continue to rise, barring any tariff shocks,' said Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.'Traders should also watch developments around the next Fed chair nomination, plus this week's CPI and PPI releases, which could shape rate-cut expectations,' Mei added.
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