Buy or Sell UNH Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?
UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) is set to release its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Analyzing the past five years of data, UNH stock has exhibited a trend of positive one-day returns after earnings announcements in 53% of cases. The median one-day gain was 4.0%, with the highest single-day increase reaching 7.2%. While the actual results in comparison to consensus estimates will be vital, comprehending these historical patterns can offer an edge for event-driven traders. There are two primary strategies to leverage this information:
Analysts' consensus estimates for the forthcoming quarter anticipate earnings of $4.94 per share on revenue of $111.6 billion. This stands in contrast to last year's quarter earnings of $6.80 per share on revenues of $98.86 billion. The expected contraction in profit margins, as indicated by the lower EPS estimate despite higher revenue, is mainly attributed to escalating medical costs.
From a fundamental standpoint, UnitedHealth Group has a current market capitalization of roughly $267 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company generated $410 billion in revenue, reporting $33 billion in operating profits and a net income of $22 billion, showcasing robust operational profitability.
That being said, if you're looking for potential upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
UnitedHealth's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data for recorded 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are detailed along with the statistics in the table below.
UNH 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky approach (although not effective if the correlation is low) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D reveal the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below are some correlation statistics derived from the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. It is worth noting that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
UNH Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire upside with a more stable experience than an individual stock like UnitedHealth, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its launch.
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