Twenty things I'm hearing and watching for on MLB trade deadline with 50 days to go

New York Times

a day ago

The MLB trade deadline is now just 50 days away. Where did the time go?
Each trade deadline is different in terms of the buyers and sellers and the magnitude of moves, and this year will be no different. So, what can we expect, beyond the unexpected, this trade season?
I've been talking and texting with front office executives and evaluators throughout baseball to gauge how the early trade conversations are going. Here are 20 things I'm hearing, watching for, and thinking about with 50 days until the July 31 trade deadline.
1. The Orioles and Diamondbacks will be the headliners of the trade deadline if they decide to be 'sellers.' Baltimore would be able to dangle starting pitchers like Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano and position players like Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn, among others. All five will be free agents after this season. Arizona has four significant impending free agents it could trade including starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as well as both of its infield corners, first baseman Josh Naylor and third baseman Eugenio Suárez.
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2. After subpar starts, the Braves, Red Sox and Rangers don't appear to be postseason teams this year, but most in the industry believe they will make trades to try to improve their respective rosters for the rest of this season and next rather than being typical sellers. The Braves will focus on acquiring more pitching (starting and relieving). The Red Sox will try to deal one of their outfielders for starting pitching help and an upgrade at first base. The Rangers will generally look for bats if they can't get their own guys going.
3. The front offices of most of the contending teams are underwhelmed by the players the obvious sellers — the Athletics, Marlins, Pirates, White Sox and Rockies — have to dangle for potential deals.
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4. The Angels, who are currently a game below .500, don't seem inclined to be sellers right now, but that should change by the end of July; if that happens, they'll have two power bats they could offer in DH Jorge Soler and LF Taylor Ward, along with starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen.
5. Among their counterparts, front-office executives believe Orioles general manager Mike Elias and Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto are under the most pressure at this year's trade deadline. Elias because he seems to be focusing on adding a top-of-the-rotation starter and doesn't appear to have the mindset to be a seller right now, though, in my opinion, he probably should be. His job could be on the line this trade deadline. In terms of Dipoto, many in the industry believe he should add a significant bat to Seattle's lineup; with such a strong farm system and ownership willing to increase payroll, there is no excuse not to this year.
6. The Mets and Phillies look headed for an epic division race in the NL East, but between now and July 31 they're also in a race to see which team can bolster its bullpen the best. According to industry sources, both organizations are focused on high-leverage arms and will be chasing similar relievers.
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7. The Padres know they need another bat to lengthen their lineup and are focused on acquiring a left fielder. They might be willing to again dangle their best prospects to get it done as they try to take advantage of their roster's window to win a World Series.
8. The Dodgers are most focused on getting their starting pitchers healthy and back on the mound including Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Tony Gonsolin. If the Dodgers can get them healthy for the stretch run, they really don't have an obvious need to address at the deadline. They have the best offense and lineup in baseball, top to bottom, and when healthy, arguably the best rotation, too. But can their pitchers get healthy? If not, the Dodgers will look to trade for yet another starter.
9. The Royals are shopping for corner outfield help and realize they'll probably have to trade one of their top catching prospects to make it happen.
10. The Mariners appear to be focused on acquiring a middle-of-the-order bat, either a first baseman or third baseman, and have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball from which to trade. They match up perfectly with the Diamondbacks for either Naylor or a reunion with Suárez.
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11. The Cardinals will be open-minded about adding at the trade deadline, but if things go south in the coming weeks, don't expect them to turn into traditional sellers. They are committed to building for the long term so expect every move they make between now and the deadline to reflect that approach. Being open to adding doesn't mean if they get the right offer for closer Ryan Helsley or a starting pitcher like Erick Fedde or Miles Mikolas, they won't jump on it — they will. All three will be free agents after this season.
12. Don't expect the Marlins to trade Sandy Alcantara (7.14 ERA over 13 starts) while his value is down. Instead, they're expected to keep him until he regains his Cy Young Award form, which might not happen until later this year and maybe even next. They can always shop Alcantara, who is coming off Tommy John surgery, in the offseason or the next trade deadline. (His contract includes a $21 million team option for 2027.) However, the Marlins will listen to inquiries on their corner outfielders this summer since teams like the Padres and Royals might overpay for Kyle Stowers or Jesús Sánchez.
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13. The Nationals are looking for an ace to pair with MacKenzie Gore at the top of their rotation. That will be their priority at the trade deadline and in the offseason. It appears their ownership could be willing to spend more in the offseason to make impactful moves and start getting serious about trying to contend.
14. The Tigers are for real. They'll be aggressive at the trade deadline to bolster their bullpen and lengthen their lineup, with a power-hitting third baseman being their biggest need. Like the Mariners, a reunion with the Diamondbacks' Suárez could be the best fit. Arizona could put Jordan Lawlar at third base to build for next year and let him work on his development in the majors in the second half of the season.
15. As we've written many times, the Pirates have no interest in trading Paul Skenes as this year's deadline. However, multiple GMs have told me that won't stop them from making serious offers to acquire him. And, if you're the Pirates, you have to listen because you have so many needs to fill — on your big-league team and also in your farm system. The return for Skenes in a trade would have to be even more than the haul the Nationals got for Juan Soto at the 2022 deadline. However, he is the best pitcher in baseball, with four more years of team control, so it arguably would be worth paying that type of package. I learned long ago in baseball … never say never.
16. The Cubs have a clear path to an NL Central title and are planning to be aggressive at the trade deadline, looking for a strong starting pitcher and bullpen help.
17. The Giants believe in stability and continuity so, outside of adding another bat, don't expect a lot of moves from them at this deadline. They need more offense — they rank 24th in OPS — and could use an upgrade at first base or in right field. Naylor would be a good fit because he's a rental and wouldn't block their top prospect, first baseman Bryce Eldridge. The Giants usually don't like short-term solutions, but in this case, it would make sense.
18. The Blue Jays have made acquiring a starting pitcher their priority at this trade deadline. They match up well with the Diamondbacks for one of their impending free-agent starters, Gallen or Kelly, if Arizona decides to sell, or perhaps with the Angels for Anderson.
19. Similar to recent years, the Guardians have been asking around about the availability of possible right-field upgrade options, hoping to improve the production in the middle of their lineup.
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20. There is a lot of buzz in the industry that Braves manager Brian Snitker and Rangers manager Bruce Bochy could retire at season's end, which would be a big loss for the sport. Both are classy people with impressive track records who have been great for the game. It's disappointing that both of their teams might look to sell at this year's deadline. That said, I would never bet against either one of them or the teams they manage.
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Steph Chambers, Kevin C. Cox, Matthew J. Lee / Getty Images)