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Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Japan's deepening political woes cloud budget, rate hike timing
By Takaya Yamaguchi and Leika Kihara TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's deepening political uncertainty risks prolonging policy paralysis that could affect the drafting of next year's budget and the timing of the central bank's next interest rate hike, analysts say, clouding the outlook for the fragile economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing increased calls from within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to step down and take responsibility for the party's huge defeat in an upper house election in July and a lower house poll last year. While Ishiba has denied he has any plans to resign, his fading support has triggered inevitable questions about his political future and analysts say a leadership change would likely have implications for the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. In a meeting on Friday, lawmakers decided to consider holding a rare leadership race even with the party head Ishiba still presiding. Under LDP rules, such a race would take place if the majority of the party's lawmakers and regional heads agreed to hold one. But it is uncertain how long it would take for the party to decide, according to lawmakers and government officials familiar with the procedure told Reuters. That contest could happen in September at the earliest, they say, which would allow the new administration to compile a spending package to cushion the economic blow from U.S. tariffs. But if the race does not take place in September, it may have to wait until early next year to avoid disrupting the government's drafting of next fiscal year's budget, they say. "We would not be surprised if the LDP calls for a leadership election in September," UBS analysts said in a research note. "It seems that uncertainties regarding politics are unlikely to resolve soon." In Japan, the Ministry of Finance collects spending requests from ministries in August and finalises the government's draft budget in late December. The budget must pass parliament in time to take effect from the April start of a new fiscal year. Failure to pass the budget through parliament would force the government to compile a stop-gap budget, which could hurt the economy by causing delays in expenditure. Some ruling party lawmakers say there is no choice but for Ishiba to step down to resolve the deadlock. Having lost control in both houses of parliament, the LDP-led ruling coalition needs opposition party support to pass legislation and budget through parliament. Opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition unless Ishiba steps down. "Japan needs a stable coalition government. Otherwise, it's impossible to pursue consistent policies," LDP heavyweight Ken Saito told Reuters last week. "It's best for the LDP to seek a coalition partner under a new leader." COMPLICATION FOR BOJ Ishiba's weak political standing and prolonged political uncertainty also complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to resume interest rate hikes. While few analysts expect the BOJ to hike rates at its next policy meeting in September, some see a good chance of action in October, December or January next year when more data becomes available on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. Known as a fiscal hawk, Ishiba has endorsed the central bank's efforts to gradually wean the economy off a decade-long, massive stimulus as inflation remains above its 2% target for well over three years. But his bitter election defeat has made his administration vulnerable to calls for big spending and loose monetary policy. Many opposition parties have urged the BOJ to hold off, or go slow, in raising rates and focus on supporting the economy. If the LDP were to hold a leadership race, the event could put the spotlight on the views of candidates like Sanae Takaichi, a reflationist-minded lawmaker who in the past blasted the idea of interest rate hikes as "stupid." All this could discourage the BOJ from raising rates in coming months to avoid drawing unwanted political attention. "All we can say is that we would continue to take appropriate policies to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing earlier this month, when asked how the BOJ would respond if political changes lead to fresh demands on monetary policy. "It's impossible to predict how politics will unfold, which means for the BOJ it's best to take a wait-and-see stance," said a source familiar with the bank's thinking. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Exclusive-Fistful of dollars and rice for Vietnam farmers displaced for $1.5 billion Trump golf club
By Khanh Vu and Francesco Guarascio HUNG YEN, August 11 (Reuters) -Vietnamese farmer Nguyen Thi Huong has slept poorly since authorities told her to vacate her farm for a Trump family-backed golf resort, offering just $3,200 and rice provisions in return. The golf resort, for which construction is scheduled to begin next month, is offering thousands of villagers such compensation packages to leave the land that has provided their livelihood for years or decades, according to six people with direct knowledge and documents seen by Reuters. Shop Top Mortgage Rates Personalized rates in minutes A quicker path to financial freedom Your Path to Homeownership The project is the first partnership for the family business of U.S. President Donald Trump in Vietnam, which fast-tracked approvals as it negotiated a crucial trade deal with Washington. Developers are now cutting compensation forecasts from an initial estimate exceeding $500 million, said one person familiar with the plans who declined to elaborate on reasons for the reduction. The 990-hectare site designated for the golf course currently supports fruit farms growing bananas, longan, and other crops. While some see opportunity, many farmers are elderly and fear they will struggle to find alternative livelihoods in Vietnam's vibrant economy with its largely young demographic. "The whole village is worried about this project because it will take our land and leave us jobless," said 50-year-old Huong, who was told to leave her 200-square-metre (2152.78 square-feet) plot in Hung Yen province near capital Hanoi for less than the average pay for one year in Vietnam. Vietnamese real estate company Kinhbac City and its partners will develop the luxury golf club after paying the Trump Organization $5 million for brand licensing rights, according to regulatory filings and a source familiar with the deal. Trump's family business will run the club once completed, but is not involved in the investment and in compensation to farmers. Trump has said his assets in the businesses are held in a trust managed by his children, but disclosures in June showed income from those sources ultimately accrues to the president. Vietnam's agriculture ministry, Hung Yen authorities, the Trump Organization and Kinhbac City did not reply to questions on compensation rates. Authorities will determine final compensation rates based on land size and location, with formal approval expected next month. Five farmers facing dispossessions said authorities flagged reimbursements worth between $12 and $30 per square metre of farmland. They also offered additional payments for uprooted plants and provisions of rice for some months, roughly in line with one document seen by Reuters. The person familiar with the compensation plan said the range was accurate, declining to be named because the information was not public. A local official declined to talk about the compensation but said rates for farmland in the area have usually not exceeded $14 per square metre. They are often higher in other provinces. In Communist-run Vietnam, farmland is managed by the state. Farmers are assigned small plots for long-term use but have little say when authorities decide to take the land back. Protests are common but usually fruitless. Compensation is paid by the state but developers foot the bill. Four of the farmers contacted by Reuters were not happy with the proposed rates because their small plots would produce low payments. Thousands of villagers will be affected, according to a second document from local authorities seen by Reuters, which stated final payment decisions were expected next month. Huong leases a larger plot from other villagers, but can claim land compensation only for the small one assigned to her and for the plants she grows. "What can someone like me do after that?" RICE FOR LAND Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said farmers would be reimbursed fairly when he spoke in May at the groundbreaking ceremony for the golf project to an audience that included Trump's son Eric, a senior vice president of the Trump Organization. "We have no right to negotiate. That's a shame," said Do Dinh Huong, another farmer who was told his plot would be compensated at roughly $12 per square metre. He said he would have accepted what he believed was a low rate if the land were to be used to build roads or other public infrastructure. "But this is a business project. I don't know how that would contribute to people's life." Authorities have also offered rice as compensation, with provisions varying from two to twelve months, according to one of the documents seen by Reuters. Nguyen Thi Chuc, a 54-year-old farmer who grows bananas in what will become the Trump golf club, was told by authorities she might receive roughly $30 per square metre for her 200-square-metre plot. "I'm getting old and can't do anything else other than working on the farm," she said. Conversely, lawyers and investors in the province said the golf club would create better jobs and enrich villagers. Le Van Tu, a 65-year-old local who will be compensated for his small plot and owns an eatery in a village that the golf club will abut, said he will upgrade his diner into a restaurant to cater to wealthier clients. Land prices in the village have risen fivefold since the project was announced in October, he said. He was also happy a nearby pig farm will be gone: "It won't be stinky anymore." 登入存取你的投資組合
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Rupee to rise at open on NDF lift; U.S. tariffs, inflation on radar
By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI (Reuters) -The rupee is set to open higher on Monday, supported by its recovery in the non-deliverable forward market, while traders remain focused on potential fallout from U.S. tariffs and the upcoming U.S. inflation data. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 87.52-87.56 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 87.66 on Friday. The NDF move feels "purely positional" and there was no real shift in underlying sentiment, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said, with the structural bias on USD/INR remaining higher till the tariff overhang is in play. The tactical adjustment in NDF likely reflects some trimming of heavy-dollar positions, with the Reserve Bank of India's intervention likely prompting speculators who were betting on a quick leg higher in USD/INR to think twice, the trader said. Over the last two weeks, the RBI has intervened in the non-deliverable forward and onshore spot markets to cushion the rupee against tariff pressures stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's actions. SOFT US DOLLAR A broadly softer dollar, on growing bets of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, is expected to aid the rupee amid the tariff noise. The dollar index fell on Monday, extending losses from last week, while most Asian currencies advanced. July U.S. inflation data, due on Tuesday, will be key to gauging Fed rate-cut expectations and the dollar's direction. While the full impact of the latest tariffs may take time to filter into the inflation numbers, the July print will still be heavily scrutinised, MUFG Bank said in a note, adding that June data already showed signs that tariff rates are starting to have a bigger impact. Traders currently see a 90% chance of a September Fed rate cut and are pricing in just over two cuts for the year. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.66; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paise ** Dollar index down at 98.08 ** Brent crude futures down 0.5% at $66.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.28% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $629.4 million worth of Indian shares on Aug 7 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $69.1 million worth of Indian bonds on Aug 7 Sign in to access your portfolio
