logo
Trump Team Made a Critical Math Error When Calculating Extreme Tariff

Trump Team Made a Critical Math Error When Calculating Extreme Tariff

Yahoo08-04-2025

The Trump administration's calculations justifying the most consequential tariff scheme of the last century are all wrong.
In an op-ed for The New York Times published Monday, economist Brent Neiman, whose research was used to justify the White House's implementation of reciprocal tariffs, wrote that the White House fundamentally misunderstood his work.
'My first question, when the White House unveiled its tariff regime, was: How on earth did it calculate such huge rates?' Neiman wrote in the op-ed. 'The next day it got personal.'
Shortly after the Trump administration announced its plan to implement tariffs of 10 percent or more on 90 countries—which it claims will eliminate the trade deficit but has only spurred global economic chaos—the Office of the United States Trade Representative published its methodology for the tariff calculations, citing a paper by Neiman and four other economists.
'But it got it wrong. Very wrong. I disagree fundamentally with the government's trade policy and approach,' Neiman wrote. 'But even taking it at face value, our findings suggest the calculated tariffs should be dramatically smaller—perhaps one-fourth as large.'
So if the White House had done the math right, and wanted its absurd trade plan to actually work, 20 percent tariffs should have been … 5 percent.
That wasn't the only mistake, Neiman pointed out. The Trade Office claimed its reciprocal tariff calculations would eliminate trade deficits with each American trading partner. Neiman concluded that is not a 'reasonable goal.'
'Trade imbalances between two countries can emerge for many reasons that have nothing to do with protectionism.… There are some reasonable arguments in favor of reducing the overall trade deficit, such as to reduce risks from our debt. But these arguments don't apply country by country,' Neiman wrote, further exposing the White House's lack of reasoning.
Even if all trade deficits are eliminated (which Neiman points out is basically impossible), reciprocal tariffs still won't work.
'The administration's tariff formula assumes that a tariff placed on one country won't affect imports from any others and ignores any implications for exports,' Neiman said. 'These assumptions may work for an action against one small trade partner, but not for the broad salvo announced last week.'
Neiman went on to decimate pretty much every justification the Trump administration has provided for tariff implementation, including its selective picking and choosing of his research results to support its claims.
'As a result of these and other methodological choices, Wednesday's reciprocal tariffs will bring average tariff rates to their highest level in over 100 years. I would strongly prefer that the policy and methodology be scrapped entirely. But barring that, the administration should divide its results by four.' Neiman concluded, a grim reminder of the economic chaos yet to come.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Judge says Columbia University activist facing deportation should be freed
Judge says Columbia University activist facing deportation should be freed

Yahoo

time22 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Judge says Columbia University activist facing deportation should be freed

Supporters of Mahmoud Khalil rally outside the federal courthouse in Newark on March 28, 2025. (Reena Rose Sibayan for New Jersey Monitor) A federal judge ruled Wednesday that a Columbia University activist detained for partaking in pro-Palestinian protests cannot be held by the federal government over allegations that his presence in the United States undermines the nation's foreign policy interests. U.S. District Judge Michael Farbiarz issued the order Wednesday but gave federal prosecutors until Friday at 9:30 a.m. to ask the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals to step in. It's unclear if the activist, Mahmoud Khalil, will be released Friday if the government does indeed appeal. 'This is the news we've been waiting over three months for. Mahmoud must be released immediately and safely returned home to New York to be with me and our newborn baby, Deen,' Noor Abdalla, Khalil's wife, said in a statement from the American Civil Liberties Union of New York. 'True justice would mean Mahmoud was never taken away from us in the first place, that no Palestinian father, from New York to Gaza, would have to endure the painful separation of prison walls like Mahmoud has.' If it stands, Farbiarz's ruling, which comes on the heels of a previous decision that said the government's push to deport Khalil was likely unconstitutional, could deal a blow to the Trump administration's efforts to deport dissidents. Khalil was arrested by immigration authorities in March and has been held in Louisiana since. He's fighting two cases to fend off his deportation — one in Louisiana and one in New Jersey, because he was being transferred through Elizabeth Detention Center when his attorneys first filed a petition for his release. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed Khalil supports terrorist group Hamas and called his presence in the country a national security risk. Rubio has cited a rarely used provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 to justify Khalil's deportation. Farbiarz noted in his Wednesday ruling that the government could argue that Khalil would have been detained anyway because he inaccurately filled out his lawful permanent resident application, which can be a basis for removal under very rare circumstances. But that argument won't work, he said. 'Lawful permanent residents are virtually never detained pending removal for the sort of alleged omission' Khalil is accused of, the judge wrote in the 14-page filing. Khalil, whose wife and newborn son are American citizens, has not been charged with any crime. He was among the first university students who were picked up by immigration authorities targeting pro-Palestine activists. Some students who were detained under similar circumstances have been released but still face deportation. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE

Trump's DOGE efficiency agency says it slashes $25B in federal spending as rehiring begins
Trump's DOGE efficiency agency says it slashes $25B in federal spending as rehiring begins

Yahoo

time22 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Trump's DOGE efficiency agency says it slashes $25B in federal spending as rehiring begins

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) announced on Wednesday it has decreased its annual non-defense federal obligations by an additional ~1.9% since last month. As of June 8th, annual non-defense federal obligations are down 22.4%, or ~$25B, as compared to 2024, DOGE announced on X. The cut marks an additional ~1.9% reduction from last month's figures, which were announced on May 8. Doge's Greatest Hits: Look Back At The Department's Most High-profile Cuts During Trump's First 100 Days "Cash outlays will follow as obligations come due," DOGE wrote in the post. "Our initiative to reduce wasteful spend, consistent with the DOGE Cost Efficiency Executive Order, continues to bear fruit." On May 14, DOGE announced the current year's non-defense federal obligations were down 20.5% as compared to 2024. Read On The Fox News App The announcement came minutes before Fox News Digital was first to report the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is rehiring more than 450 previously fired employees belonging to multiple divisions within the agency's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The rehired CDC employees came from the National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and Tuberculosis Prevention; the National Center for Environmental Health; the Immediate Office of the Director, and the Global Health Center, according to an HHS official familiar with the matter. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told CBS News in April some personnel who were cut shouldn't have been. Doge Ends 108 'Wasteful' Contracts, Including For An 'Executive Transformational Leadership Training Program' "We're reinstating them, and that was always the plan," Kennedy said. "Part of the—at DOGE, we talked about this from the beginning, is we're going to do 80% cuts, but 20% of those are going to have to be reinstated, because we'll make mistakes." In addition to the HHS rehires, the Internal Revenue Service, Food and Drug Administration, State Department, and Department of Housing and Urban Development started rehiring employees let go during DOGE cuts, the Washington Post reported. Doge Takes A Chainsaw To Federal Spending With 7 Major Victories This Week: 'Got To Be Done' Another roadblock this week was a ruling from U.S. District Judge Denise Cote of the Southern District of New York, who ruled to restrict the agency's access to federal databases. The Trump administration previously said DOGE could not work effectively with the limitations, noting DOGE needed to access Social Security information to root out fraud. Fox News Digital's Alec Schemmel and Danielle Wallace contributed to this article source: Trump's DOGE efficiency agency says it slashes $25B in federal spending as rehiring begins

Pulse shooting survivors, family members tour building before demolition
Pulse shooting survivors, family members tour building before demolition

Yahoo

time22 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Pulse shooting survivors, family members tour building before demolition

Survivors and family members of the victims of the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting are touring the inside of the building for a final look before it's torn down. About 250 people accepted the city of Orlando's invitation to tour the building where Omar Mateen, who had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, killed 49 people and wounded 53 others during a Latin Night celebration at the popular LGBTQIA+ club on June 12, 2016. Mateen was killed following an hourslong standoff with police. At the time, it was the deadliest mass shooting in modern American history. The shooting at the Route 91 Harvest music festival in Las Vegas would eclipse the Pulse shooting's death toll the following year. The visits, which coincide with the shooting's nine-year mark, are being done in small groups over the course of four days, with survivors and family members spending about a half hour inside, according to The Associated Press. Christine Leionen lost her only child, 32-year-old Christopher, in the shooting. Wednesday marked the first time she saw where her son was killed. "My son died on that dance floor. He was shot nine times, and he bled to death on that dance floor," she told CBS News. She said going to Pulse was "a way to try to experience his last seconds of life. I just want to feel closer to him." Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, who also visited the site, said the visit "took me back nine years." "Reflecting on being in the command center on Orange Avenue as all the things are transpiring and, eventually, the shooting of the killer and then the realization of just how many people were impacted," he said, according to CBS affiliate WKMG-TV. Dyer said the people visiting included 25 of the 49 victims' families. The city of Orlando is planning to build a permanent memorial where the building currently stands. City officials approved a plan to buy the property for $2 million back in 2023, following several previous failed attempts to buy the land. Family members and some survivors had been pushing for a permanent memorial for years before the purchase. But some of the families and survivors still have questions about whether more could have been done to prevent the shooting or if police could have done more to save people. Questions also surround the ensuing investigation and the issue of whether the attack was a hate crime. "I lived that night, but it's a constant sacrifice to keep moving every day," survivor Maritza Gomez told WKMG back when the city approved the plan to buy the property. "I don't think that Pulse should be diminished. I think that an investigation should be taken care of first." An accused woman skips her pedicure, kills her ex-husband Watch California Gov. Gavin Newsom's full speech on federal response to Los Angeles protests LAPD chief speaks out about deployment of military forces to anti-ICE protests

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store