India must underline for Türkiye the strategic costs of supporting Pakistan

Indian Express

2 days ago

Written by Mujib Alam
Türkiye's unequivocal support for Pakistan during India's Operation Sindoor, launched in retaliation for the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, marked a clear departure from Ankara's careful diplomatic balancing in the past. Historically, Türkiye has supported Pakistan during previous Indo-Pak conflicts, but recent events signal a new and explicit shift, raising critical questions for India's strategic response.
Following Operation Sindoor, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan openly condemned India's military actions inside Pakistani territory, labelling them 'provocative' and a potential trigger for wider conflict. Turkish military deployments, such as the docking of an Ada-class anti-submarine corvette at Karachi and the landing of a Turkish C-130 Hercules aircraft reportedly carrying military supplies, clearly demonstrated Ankara's support for Islamabad. Despite Turkish denials, Pakistan's use of Turkish-made Songar drones during the hostilities underscored the military depth of this partnership.
Türkiye's strategic embrace of Pakistan is neither sudden nor temporary. It reflects Erdogan's broader vision of alliances rooted more in cultural and religious affinity than economic pragmatism, evident from Türkiye's deliberate decision to back Pakistan despite risking relations with a larger and stronger economy.
Global geopolitical shifts further reinforce this partnership. Deep historical, ideological, and strategic ties, dating back to the Cold War when both Türkiye and Pakistan were key US allies, underpin their current relationship. Both nations now face growing marginalisation from Western security frameworks. Türkiye's strained relations with NATO, aggravated by its acquisition of Russia's S-400 missile system and its subsequent exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program, have forced Ankara to seek alternative partnerships. Similarly, Pakistan, historically dependent on US military aid, is now heavily reliant on China for defence technology.
Thus, Ankara and Islamabad share a strategic predicament: Maintaining regional relevance amid diminishing Western support. Türkiye views Pakistan as its primary defence partner outside NATO, strengthening Ankara's geopolitical leverage in South Asia and counterbalancing Saudi and Emirati influence in the Muslim world. Conversely, Pakistan benefits significantly from Turkish defence technology and diplomatic backing due to its isolation from Western military suppliers.
For India, the implications of the burgeoning Türkiye-Pakistan axis are substantial. Historically, India's diplomatic response to Turkish provocations has been cautious. Relations became notably strained between 2019 and 2022, with intense media confrontations following India's revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's special status. India's subsequent support for Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and deepened strategic ties with Türkiye's regional rivals including Greece, Cyprus, Israel, the UAE, and Iran clearly signalled New Delhi's displeasure.
However, India's strategic response to Türkiye has largely been reactive. Calls to boycott Turkish goods after Operation Sindoor, while emotionally resonant, offer limited strategic advantage. India's approach must evolve from temporary reactions towards a coherent, sustainable policy.
India should adopt a multipronged strategy. Firstly, diplomatic channels should clearly convey the economic and strategic costs Türkiye could incur by prioritising Pakistan. Secondly, India should strengthen bilateral ties within the Arab and broader Islamic world, particularly with influential states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Indonesia, and Iran, to diplomatically isolate Türkiye's ambitions in South Asia.
Thirdly, India must enhance its indigenous defence capabilities under the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' initiative to ensure strategic autonomy. Expanding domestic defence production and fortifying regional alliances will mitigate vulnerabilities arising from shifting geopolitical allegiances.
Lastly, India's regional strategy requires reassessment. India's withdrawal from forums like SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) allowed external powers including Türkiye, China, and the US to expand their regional influence. Reinvigorating regional cooperation mechanisms will help restore India's primacy and diminish strategic space for external actors.
Türkiye's decision to openly side with Pakistan signals a long-term strategic shift in South Asia. Ankara's current security calculus, while seemingly beneficial in the short-term, risks alienating Türkiye from India's immense economic and strategic potential. India must respond decisively, crafting a proactive, multifaceted policy that safeguards its regional interests, reinforces strategic autonomy, and clearly communicates the costs of strategic hostility. In today's complex geopolitical landscape marked by shifting loyalties, strategic clarity is more crucial than ever.
The writer is a Professor of Turkish Politics and Foreign Policy at the MMAJ-Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi