Tim Seymour reveals global 'Mag 7' for U.S. investors as international markets outperform
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an hour ago
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The Stock Market Just Did Something for the 9th Time Since 1957. History Says It Signals a Big Move in the S&P 500 Within the Next Year.
Key Points The S&P 500 closed above its 20-day moving average every day for 68 straight days. History shows the S&P 500 is almost always higher in the year following such a streak, racking up additional gains of 11%, on average. Tariffs or persistent inflation could still stymie the rally, but the long-term future looks bright. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › This year has been one for the record books. After hitting a new all-time high in February, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) promptly reversed course, tumbling 19%. Fears about the impact of tariffs and their potential to reignite inflation were pervasive. However, since those dark days in early April, the market has rebounded, hitting 10 record highs in July and gaining 29% over the past four months. During that time, the market closed above a key metric for 68 consecutive days. A streak of that magnitude has occurred just eight times before. The data shows that on almost every previous occasion, the benchmark index continued to climb during the coming 12 months, generating additional double-digit returns. Let's review the data and see what it says about the coming year. History suggests the S&P 500 will continue to climb over the next 12 months A brief primer might be in order to provide a suitable backdrop. The 20-day moving average is a widely used technical indicator that helps traders track the market's underlying short-term momentum. This measure is calculated by averaging the closing price of the market (or a given security) during the 20 previous trading days. This helps smooth out price fluctuations and helps to expose underlying trends. While this tool isn't typically used by long-term investors, it can provide valuable insight. To recap, the S&P 500 recently closed above its 20-day moving average for 68 consecutive days. This marks just the ninth 60-plus-day streak since the benchmark index debuted in 1957, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at financial services company Carson Group. His research shows that in the 12 months following these previous occurrences, the S&P has risen seven out of eight times, notching additional gains of 11%, on average. This chart shows the years in which the S&P 500 managed a 60-plus-day streak and the returns of the index in the succeeding 12 months: Year of 60+ Days Above 20-Day Moving Average S&P 500 12-Month Change 1961 4% 1964 11% 1965 -12% 1971 9% 1975 21% 1986 18 1997 15% 1998 21% Average 11% Data source: Carson Group. Chart by author. As the chart illustrates, the S&P 500 delivered returns of 11% on average during the 12 months following a period when the benchmark closed above its 20-day moving average for 60 consecutive days (or longer). For context, the benchmark index has returned 8% annually, on average, since its inception in 1957. This shows that the market performed well above average following these streaks. That said, investors would do well to remember the Wall Street proverb, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." There's always the exception that proves the rule. However, understanding the data can help investors make informed decisions based on historical context. The fly in the ointment Given the historic volatility investors have experienced so far this year and the elevated uncertainty that remains, it's easy to understand why investors might have difficulty believing the market can achieve additional double-digit gains over the coming 12 months. After all, the ongoing tariff negotiations are far from settled, and the battle to rein in inflation continues. Furthermore, there's contradictory evidence, at least thus far, about the impact of tariffs on the broader economy. The continuing market volatility and uncertainty regarding tariffs have some investors wary about what the future might hold, but those investing with a five-to-10-year time horizon generally have a different mindset. The fine print The evidence suggests the market will continue its winning ways over the coming year, but there are no guarantees. Furthermore, even if those increases do come to pass, investors shouldn't forget the lessons learned earlier this year -- the benchmark averages can and do plunge on the way to achieving new heights. While historical data suggests the market will rise by double digits over the next 12 months, it could experience setbacks several times on the path to future gains. In fact, I'm fairly confident in suggesting that the volatility that has been prevalent so far this year will likely continue. Having a set investing schedule and adding to your portfolio at regular intervals takes much of the guesswork out of the process and offers the best path to prosperity. It also helps instill the discipline necessary to succeed over the long term, regardless of the market's short-term movements. History is clear: The stock market has generated average returns of 10% annually going back 50 years. That's why having a long-term mindset is one of the keys to investing success. Should you invest $1,000 in S&P 500 Index right now? Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,155!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,106,071!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,070% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 184% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 13, 2025 Danny Vena has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The Stock Market Just Did Something for the 9th Time Since 1957. History Says It Signals a Big Move in the S&P 500 Within the Next Year. was originally published by The Motley Fool
Yahoo
3 hours ago
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£10,000 invested in Vodafone shares 5 years ago is now worth…
Vodafone (LSE: VOD) shares have performed well recently. Year to date, they're up about 25%. Zooming out however, they haven't been a great long-term investment. Here's a look at how much a £10,000 investment in the FTSE 100 telecoms company five years ago would be worth today. Five-year performance analysed Vodafone shares were a more popular investment five years ago than today, because the share price was down and the stock was offering an attractive dividend yield of around 7%. At the time though, the company's fundamentals were quite shaky as capital expenditures and debt were high and dividend coverage (the ratio of earnings to dividends) was low. So, buying the stock was relatively risky. These weak fundamentals, and the high level of risk, are reflected in the performance of the shares. Five years ago, they were trading for around 117p. Today however, they're trading at 86p, so anyone who invested £10,000 in Vodafone five years ago would now be sitting on shares worth about £7,350. What about dividend income though? Would this have offset the share price losses? Well, I calculate that £10,000 invested in the company, they would have picked up about £3,600 worth of dividends. Add that to the £7,350 and the total investment would be worth about £10,950 (assuming dividends weren't reinvested). That's obviously a positive return. However, it only translates to a return of about 1.8% per year over the five-year period. That's quite disappointing. For the five-year period to the end of July, the FTSE 100 index returned 13.2% a year. A high yield can backfire This is a good illustration of why it's not smart to buy a stock just because it has a high yield. Even with an attractive yield, a stock can still generate disappointing returns. Before buying a stock, it's important to think holistically and analyse things like the company's growth potential, financial strength, level of profitability, and dividend coverage (Vodafone cut its dividend again last financial year). By looking at the fundamentals, an investor can potentially improve their chance of success in the stock market. Has the outlook improved? Do Vodafone's fundamentals look any better today? I think they do. Recently, revenue growth has started to pick up a little bit. For example, in a recent trading update for Q1, group revenue increased by 3.9% to €9.4 billion with strong service revenue growth. Meanwhile, analysts expect the company's earnings per share to rise as the company boosts efficiency. Next financial year, earnings growth of about 15% is anticipated. Dividend coverage is also much healthier than it was at 1.6 times. This indicates that payout is most likely sustainable in the near term (the yield is about 5.1% today). It's worth pointing out that while debt has come down lately, it's still a little high (which adds risk). At the end of March, net debt was €22.4 billion. The valuation is also starting to look a little full. Currently, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is about 12. Given the debt and valuation, I won't be rushing out to buy Vodafone shares. They could be worth considering for income however, to my mind, there are better stocks out there today. The post £10,000 invested in Vodafone shares 5 years ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool UK. More reading 5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50 One Top Growth Stock from the Motley Fool Edward Sheldon has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Vodafone Group Public. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Motley Fool UK 2025 Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Melden Sie sich an, um Ihr Portfolio aufzurufen. Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten
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3 hours ago
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1 big reason to be bullish on UK shares
In general, UK shares have underperformed their US counterparts over the last 10 years. But there's a big reason to be bullish on FTSE 100 stocks going forward. According to recent reports, UK firms are favouring buybacks over dividends for returning cash to investors. And this could be very positive for share prices. Share buybacks In general, businesses face choices about what to do with the cash they generate. One option is to use some or all of it to buy their own shares and then cancel them. The main benefit is that it reduces the overall number of shares. That means each remaining share has a bigger ownership stake in the underlying business – and a claim on more of its profits. This can increase the value of the outstanding shares and cause prices to rise, but only if the stock a company buys is worth less than the cash it pays for it – in other words, only if it's undervalued. The likes of Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY), Shell, and BP have been buying back shares in a big way recently. And if this continues, it could be very positive for share prices in the future. Apple In February 2018, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced its plans to return excess cash to investors. And during the next three years, the firm spent around £159bn on share buybacks. As a result, the company's outstanding share count fell by almost 20% during this period. And the stock went from around $40 to just under $145 – a gain of 250%. After working through its excess cash however, the pace of Apple's share buybacks has slowed. Since 2021, the firm's only bought back around 8% of its outstanding shares. It's no coincidence the stock hasn't climbed as rapidly during this time and it's not on my buy list at the moment. It's managed a very respectable 75%, but it hasn't been as fast as it was when it was aggressively repurchasing shares. Cyclicality Concerns about motor loan regulations notwithstanding, Lloyds has seen its share price climb 45% in the last 12 months. And that's partly the result of an ongoing share buyback programme. One thing to keep an eye on however, is the interest rate environment. The FTSE 100 bank has benefitted from wider lending margins while rates have been relatively high recently. If that changes, the company might well find itself less profitable – in fact, I think that's highly likely. And in this situation, the firm might well have less cash available for share buybacks. Investors therefore need to think carefully when it comes to share buybacks. They can push a stock higher and create value for shareholders, but it's important to consider how durable they are. FTSE 100 shares There are however, plenty of FTSE 100 companies are looking to accelerate share repurchases. And I think this provides reason to be optimistic about UK stocks as a whole. Beyond the likes of Lloyds — which I expect to slow its buybacks when interest rates fall — there are other stocks on my radar. And potential buybacks are a big part of my investment thesis. The post 1 big reason to be bullish on UK shares appeared first on The Motley Fool UK. More reading 5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50 One Top Growth Stock from the Motley Fool Stephen Wright has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Apple and Lloyds Banking Group Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Motley Fool UK 2025
