The unpredictable 30 days
Biden administration left the house with a harsher take on China and Trump is yet to make it worse.
One month into the office, Trump has made some highly unpredictable moves, forcing dramatic changes in the US government. The Trump effect has been double-edged; where some of the executive orders have been criticized domestically, others have been appreciated at home and abroad. Where on the one hand, his take on US's policies on diversity faced stark criticism after he declared the existence of only two genders in the USA on his very first day; on the other hand, he was applauded for his tough take on illegal immigrants and plummeting government spending.
Other unpredictable moves included wiping off entire US agencies like the USAID, creating the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) headed by Elon Musk, his unrealistic take on Gaza, and his renewed camaraderie with Putin. Throughout the campaign, Trump laid emphasis on domestic issues and challenges that threaten USA. In multiple rallies, Trump referred to USA as an 'occupied' and a "crooked' state; hence, the quick executive orders to address the issues of immigration and government spending.
On China, the Biden administration left the house with a harsher take on China and Trump is yet to make it worse. Despite his aggressive rhetoric on China, Trump not only paused the ban on TikTok for 75 days, but also started a little lighter with tariffs. In the first week of February, Trump started with 10% duties on Chinese goods which are expected to rise as Trump tries to find a delicate balance between containing China's rise and fighting inflation and other economic repercussions of tariffs at home.
Considered to be an anti-war personality, Trump was applauded for his role in making Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before he took office on January 20th. However, his stance on the issue took various turns. Trump pressurized Netanyahu to accept the deal before he took office, and proudly took the credit for it as the latter rejected the same proposal when proposed by Biden months earlier. Later, he suggested Jordan and Egypt to take the Palestinians stating the 'we just clean out that whole thing and say: 'You know, it's over.'' On the 5th of February, Trump went on to state that USA should 'own Gaza' while suggesting the 2 million Palestinians should be relocated somewhere else.
This statement sparked criticism within and outside the USA. Critics equated such statement to provoking 'ethnic cleansing' of Palestinians. The shift of Arab-Americans and Muslims away from Biden was a crucial factor in Trump's victory in Michigan. Their frustrations with the Biden administration regarding aiding Israel with military equipment used for the genocide of Palestinians manifested in their vote for Trump. However, Trumps's plan to own Gaza did not bode well with the Arab Americans.
Trump's aim to settle the middle eastern conflict at his earliest stem from his ambitious foreign policy agenda aimed at easing ties between Israel and the Arab states. However, such statements did not only prompt global condemnation, but also weakened the Trump's credibility at national level. Furthermore, such statement could also undermine the Abraham Accords- which was a major foreign policy success of Trump's first presidency and can undo other major foreign policy achievements of USA in West Asia.
On the issue of Russia-Ukraine war, Trump delivered less despite his assertion on ending the Ukraine war in 24 hours. On February 18th, Trump and Putin met in Riyadh raising alarm bells in Europe and Ukraine. It was the first ever face to face meeting between the officials of both the states since the war started in 2022. However, exclusion of Ukraine from the talks ignited a war of words between Ukrainian President and Trump where the former claimed the latter to be living in a 'Russian-disinformation space' while the latter went on to call the former a 'dictator'. However, with the enduring unpredictability in Trump's era, it is yet to see if Trump succeeds in making Ukraine give up or if he comes up with another better idea in the days ahead. As for Russia, it is a great opportunity to mend the bilateral ties that have been at their lowest point in history, and to counter the USA efforts aimed at isolating Moscow since 2022.
One major characteristic of his first month has been the vocal attacks and threats to foes and allies alike, which led him welcome confrontation at multiple fronts. The EU has already started looking for trade partners other than the USA; the alternatives which will only hurt Trump administration economically and diplomatically. Furthermore, the trade war with China and the stringent sanctions have already backfired, with Chinese Deepseek proving that sanctions and tariffs have become a redundant foreign policy tool in contemporary times. Allies may also look for formation of blocs with China and Russia that does not include the USA.
In conclusion, Trump's approach to dealing with major national and international issues has been a mix of pragmatism and lunacy. Trump's first 30 days have set the stage for a presidency unlike any other. Even though it is too soon to predict his full agenda, one thing is certain: his presidency will leave an indelible mark on history, for better or worse.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Recorder
43 minutes ago
- Business Recorder
Blackstone to invest $500 billion in Europe over next decade
Blackstone plans to invest up to $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, CEO Steve Schwarzman told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Tuesday, underscoring market confidence in the region's prospects. Schwarzman said Europe represents a 'major opportunity' for the world's largest alternative asset manager, which oversees assets worth over $1 trillion. There has been a surge in investor optimism about the region, driven by European governments' push to increase military spending and revive a sluggish private equity market. With U.S. President Donald Trump reshaping global alliances and trade policies, Europe is actively pursuing new avenues for economic growth, potentially creating promising investment opportunities for firms such as Blackstone. The European Union, for example, is ramping up its defense spending to revitalize a sector historically overlooked by private investors. Since 2020, the U.S. and Canada have attracted 83% of all private equity and venture capital-backed aerospace and defense investment, according to S&P. Europe is starting to change its approach, 'which we think will result in higher growth rates. So this has worked out amazingly well for us,' Schwarzman told Bloomberg. Schwarzman supported Trump in the U.S. presidential election last year, according to a report from Axios. He has long been viewed as an ally of the president. Trump's whiplash tariffs have, however, prompted several businesses to optimize their supply chains to reduce U.S. exposure. 'The U.S. administration's tariffs - combined with any retaliatory measures from its trading partners - will deliver a supply shock to the U.S. and a demand shock to the rest of the world, including China and Europe,' said Blerina Uruçi, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price.
Express Tribune
an hour ago
- Express Tribune
India pushes back 'foreigners' into Bangladesh, sparking human rights concerns
Police officers stand next to men they believe to be undocumented Bangladeshi nationals after they were detained during raids in Ahmedabad, India, April 26, 2025. PHOTO: REUTERS Listen to article India has started to push people it considers illegal immigrants into neighbouring Bangladesh, but human rights activists say authorities are arbitrarily throwing people out of the country. Since May, the northeastern Indian state of Assam has "pushed back" 303 people into Bangladesh out of 30,000 declared as foreigners by various tribunals over the years, a top official said this week. Such people in Assam are typically long-term residents with families and land in the state, which is home to tens of thousands of families tracing their roots to Muslim-majority Bangladesh. Activists say many of them and their families are often wrongly classified as foreigners in mainly Hindu India and are too poor to challenge tribunal judgements in higher courts. Some activists, who did not want to be named for fear of reprisal, said only Muslims had been targeted in the expulsion drive. An Assam government spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Assam, which has a 260 km (160 mile) border with Bangladesh, started sending back people last month who had been declared as foreigners by its Foreigners Tribunals. Such a move is politically popular in Assam, where Bengali language speakers with possible roots in Bangladesh compete for jobs and resources with local Assamese speakers. "There is pressure from the Supreme Court to act on the expulsion of foreigners," Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma told the state assembly on Monday. "We have pushed back 303 people. These pushbacks will be intensified. We have to be more active and proactive to save the state." He was referring to the Supreme Court asking Assam in February why it had not moved on deporting, opens new tab declared foreigners. Bangladesh's foreign affairs adviser, Touhid Hossain, did not immediately reply to an email seeking comment. Last week, he told reporters that people were being sent to his country from India and that the government was in touch with New Delhi over it. Aman Wadud, an Assam-based lawyer who routinely fights citizenship cases and is now a member of the main opposition Congress party, said the government was "arbitrarily throwing people out of the country". "There is a lot of panic on the ground - more than ever before," he said. Some brought back Sarma said no genuine Indian citizens will be expelled. But he added that up to four of the people deported were brought back to India because appeals challenging their non-Indian status were being heard in court. One of them was Khairul Islam, a 51-year-old former government school teacher who was declared a foreigner by a tribunal in 2016. He spent two years in an Assam detention centre and was released on bail in August 2020. He said police picked him up on May 23 from his home and took him to a detention centre, from where he and 31 others were rounded up by Indian border guards and loaded into a van, blindfolded and hands tied. "Then, 14 of us were put onto another truck. We were taken to a spot along the border and pushed into Bangladesh," he said. "It was terrifying. I've never experienced anything like it. It was late at night. There was a straight road, and we all started walking along it." Islam said residents of a Bangladeshi village then called the Border Guard Bangladesh, who then pushed the group of 14 into the "no man's land between the two countries". "All day we stood there in the open field under the harsh sun," he said. Later, the group was taken to a Bangladesh guards camp while Islam's wife told police in Assam that as his case was still pending in court, he should be brought back. "After a few days, I was suddenly handed back to Indian police," he said. "That's how I made my way back home. I have no idea what happened to the others who were with me, or where they are." It is not only Assam that is acting against people deemed to be living illegally in the country. Police in the western city of Ahmedabad said they have identified more than 250 people "confirmed to be Bangladeshi immigrants living illegally here". "The process to deport them is in progress," said senior police officer Ajit Rajian.
Business Recorder
an hour ago
- Business Recorder
World Bank slashes global growth forecast as trade tensions bite
WASHINGTON: The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a 'significant headwind' for nearly all economies. In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the bank lowered its forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies - including the United States, China and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions - from the levels it projected just six months ago before U.S. President Donald Trump took office. Trump has upended global trade with a series of on-again, off-again tariff hikes that have increased the effective U.S. tariff rate from below 3% to the mid-teens - its highest level in almost a century - and triggered retaliation by China and other countries. The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast as a result of Trump's erratic trade policies, although U.S. officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts. The bank stopped short of forecasting a recession, but said global economic growth this year would be its weakest outside of a recession since 2008. By 2027, global gross domestic product growth was expected to average just 2.5%, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s. World Bank warns that US tariffs could reduce global growth outlook The report forecast that global trade would grow by 1.8% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024 and roughly a third of its 5.9% level in the 2000s. The forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of late May, including a 10% U.S. tariff on imports from most countries. It excludes increases announced by Trump in April and then postponed until July 9 to allow for negotiations. The bank said global inflation was expected to reach 2.9% in 2025, remaining above pre-COVID levels, given tariff increases and tight labor markets. 'Risks to the global outlook remain tilted decidedly to the downside,' the bank wrote. It said its models showed that a further 10-percentage point increase in average U.S. tariffs, on top of the 10% rate already implemented, and proportional retaliation by other countries, could shave another 0.5 percentage point off the outlook for 2025. Such an escalation in trade barriers would result 'in global trade seizing up in the second half of this year … accompanied by a widespread collapse in confidence, surging uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets,' the report said. Nonetheless, it said the risk of a global recession was less than 10%. World Bank cuts Pakistan growth projection to 2.7% 'Fog on a runway' Top officials from the United States and China are meeting in London this week to try to defuse a trade dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earth minerals, threatening a global supply chain shock and slower growth. 'Uncertainty remains a powerful drag, like fog on a runway. It slows investment and clouds the outlook,' World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose told Reuters in an interview. But he said there were signs of increased dialogue on trade that could help dispel uncertainty, and supply chains were adapting to a new global trade map, not collapsing. Global trade growth could see a modest rebound in 2026 to 2.4%, and developments in artificial intelligence could also boost growth, he said. 'We think that eventually the uncertainty will decline,' he said. 'Once the type of fog we have lifts, the trade engine may start running again, but at a slower pace.' Kose said while things could get worse, trade was continuing and China, India and others were still delivering robust growth. Many countries were also discussing new trade partnerships that could pay dividends later, he said. IMF lowers Pakistan's FY25 GDP growth forecast to 2.6% US growth forecast cut sharply The World Bank said the global outlook had 'deteriorated substantially' since January, mainly due to advanced economies, now seen growing by just 1.2%, down half a point, after expanding 1.7% in 2024. The U.S. forecast was slashed by 0.9 percentage point from its January forecast to 1.4%, and the 2026 outlook was lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 1.6%. Rising trade barriers, 'record-high uncertainty' and a spike in financial market volatility were expected to weigh on private consumption, trade and investment, it said. Growth estimates in the euro area were cut by 0.3 percentage point to 0.7% and in Japan by 0.5 percentage point to 0.7%. It said emerging markets and developing economies were expected to grow by 3.8% in 2025 versus 4.1% in January's forecast. Poor countries would suffer the most, the report said. By 2027 developing economies' per capita GDP would be 6% below pre-pandemic levels, and it could take these countries – minus China - two decades to recoup the economic losses of the 2020s. Mexico, heavily dependent on trade with the U.S., saw its growth forecast cut by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2% in 2025. The World Bank left its forecast for China unchanged at 4.5% from January, saying Beijing still had monetary and fiscal space to support its economy and stimulate growth.
