The unpredictable 30 days
One month into the office, Trump has made some highly unpredictable moves, forcing dramatic changes in the US government. The Trump effect has been double-edged; where some of the executive orders have been criticized domestically, others have been appreciated at home and abroad. Where on the one hand, his take on US's policies on diversity faced stark criticism after he declared the existence of only two genders in the USA on his very first day; on the other hand, he was applauded for his tough take on illegal immigrants and plummeting government spending.
Other unpredictable moves included wiping off entire US agencies like the USAID, creating the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) headed by Elon Musk, his unrealistic take on Gaza, and his renewed camaraderie with Putin. Throughout the campaign, Trump laid emphasis on domestic issues and challenges that threaten USA. In multiple rallies, Trump referred to USA as an 'occupied' and a "crooked' state; hence, the quick executive orders to address the issues of immigration and government spending.
On China, the Biden administration left the house with a harsher take on China and Trump is yet to make it worse. Despite his aggressive rhetoric on China, Trump not only paused the ban on TikTok for 75 days, but also started a little lighter with tariffs. In the first week of February, Trump started with 10% duties on Chinese goods which are expected to rise as Trump tries to find a delicate balance between containing China's rise and fighting inflation and other economic repercussions of tariffs at home.
Considered to be an anti-war personality, Trump was applauded for his role in making Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before he took office on January 20th. However, his stance on the issue took various turns. Trump pressurized Netanyahu to accept the deal before he took office, and proudly took the credit for it as the latter rejected the same proposal when proposed by Biden months earlier. Later, he suggested Jordan and Egypt to take the Palestinians stating the 'we just clean out that whole thing and say: 'You know, it's over.'' On the 5th of February, Trump went on to state that USA should 'own Gaza' while suggesting the 2 million Palestinians should be relocated somewhere else.
This statement sparked criticism within and outside the USA. Critics equated such statement to provoking 'ethnic cleansing' of Palestinians. The shift of Arab-Americans and Muslims away from Biden was a crucial factor in Trump's victory in Michigan. Their frustrations with the Biden administration regarding aiding Israel with military equipment used for the genocide of Palestinians manifested in their vote for Trump. However, Trumps's plan to own Gaza did not bode well with the Arab Americans.
Trump's aim to settle the middle eastern conflict at his earliest stem from his ambitious foreign policy agenda aimed at easing ties between Israel and the Arab states. However, such statements did not only prompt global condemnation, but also weakened the Trump's credibility at national level. Furthermore, such statement could also undermine the Abraham Accords- which was a major foreign policy success of Trump's first presidency and can undo other major foreign policy achievements of USA in West Asia.
On the issue of Russia-Ukraine war, Trump delivered less despite his assertion on ending the Ukraine war in 24 hours. On February 18th, Trump and Putin met in Riyadh raising alarm bells in Europe and Ukraine. It was the first ever face to face meeting between the officials of both the states since the war started in 2022. However, exclusion of Ukraine from the talks ignited a war of words between Ukrainian President and Trump where the former claimed the latter to be living in a 'Russian-disinformation space' while the latter went on to call the former a 'dictator'. However, with the enduring unpredictability in Trump's era, it is yet to see if Trump succeeds in making Ukraine give up or if he comes up with another better idea in the days ahead. As for Russia, it is a great opportunity to mend the bilateral ties that have been at their lowest point in history, and to counter the USA efforts aimed at isolating Moscow since 2022.
One major characteristic of his first month has been the vocal attacks and threats to foes and allies alike, which led him welcome confrontation at multiple fronts. The EU has already started looking for trade partners other than the USA; the alternatives which will only hurt Trump administration economically and diplomatically. Furthermore, the trade war with China and the stringent sanctions have already backfired, with Chinese Deepseek proving that sanctions and tariffs have become a redundant foreign policy tool in contemporary times. Allies may also look for formation of blocs with China and Russia that does not include the USA.
In conclusion, Trump's approach to dealing with major national and international issues has been a mix of pragmatism and lunacy. Trump's first 30 days have set the stage for a presidency unlike any other. Even though it is too soon to predict his full agenda, one thing is certain: his presidency will leave an indelible mark on history, for better or worse.
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