How Australia will be 'begging for migrants' as the nation's birth rate crashes to new low

Daily Mail​

20-07-2025

Australia is hurtling towards a population crisis, with birth rates plummeting so fast experts warn the country will soon be begging for migrants just to keep the economy afloat.
The nation's birth rate is at an all-time low, according the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), with the number of babies born not high enough to sustain the population.
Renowned Queensland-based evolutionary psychologist Dr Bill von Hippel has warned the global decline in babies 'raises alarms' that humanity could begin to shrink without urgent intervention.
In Australia, the trend is already well underway, with the birth rate plunging from 3.55 children per woman in 1960 to just 1.5 today - well below the level of 2.1 births per woman needed to sustain the nation's population of 27million.
Dr von Hippel said low birth rates would inevitably drive governments to 'fight to let migrants in, not keep them out' to support an ageing population, workforce needs, and public services.
'If you look at the current population of the globe, it's meant to peak somewhere between 2070 and 2090, probably around eight billion and some change,' he told the Diary of a CEO podcast.
'And then it starts to go down, and then it may continue to go down forever.'
Dr von Hippel said many Asian countries and half of western Europe had populations shrinking 'crazy fast' with Japan demolishing homes because there was nobody to buy them.
That declining birth rate trend across rich, industrialised nations will propel them to outbid each other to lure migrant workers to live there.
'In 50 years, that argument is going to be how can we convince people of country X to come into our country because we're going to shrink and disappear,' he said.
'There are a lot of countries that are going to be literally half their size by the year 2100 because they're shrinking so fast.'
Dr von Hippel said humans may start to have more children if robots take over some of the hard slog of parenting.
Futurologist Rocky Scopelliti said in the future, nations won't fight wars over oil, they'll compete over nurses, engineers, and coders.
'Australia's fertility rate has dropped to 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1,' he said.
'This means fewer taxpayers, fewer workers, and a growing burden on a shrinking younger population to support an ageing one.
'By 2060, there will be just 2.7 working-age Australians for every person over 65, down from 7.4 in the 1970s.
'That spells serious strain on our healthcare, pensions, housing, and productivity.'
Mr Scopelliti said as birth rates fell, a global talent war was brewing, with skilled migrants poised to become the world's most coveted asset.
'Australia can't assume it will stay on top,' he said.
'Canada has already outpaced us in attracting young, skilled migrants with streamlined visa processes and family-friendly resettlement policies.
'Australia must modernise its migration strategy, making it easier for workers, families, and students to stay long-term and integrate.
'If we hesitate, we'll lose out to more nimble nations.'
Mr Scopelliti said countries such as Japan and South Korea were examples of what happens when demographic inertia sets in with fewer births, lower economic growth, and a struggle to fund basic services.
'Australia is not immune,' he said.
'We're at a pivotal crossroads. While slower population growth may benefit the planet in environmental terms, without strategic foresight, it could also lead to economic stagnation and declining innovation.'
He said Australia has a unique opportunity with world-class education, political stability, lifestyle, and proximity to Asia.
'But we must improve liveability, housing affordability, and pathways to permanent residency,' he said.
'We need a bold migration brand strategy.
'If migrants are the gold of the 21st century, Australia must become the vault everyone wants to be in.'
Outspoken billionaire Elon Musk has warned the world about declining birth and fertility rates.
Musk, a father of 12, said the trend poses a significant risk to humanity.
'Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilisation than global warming,' he said in 2022.
Musk said: 'A lot of people are under the impression that the current number of humans is unsustainable on the planet.
'That is totally untrue. The population density is actually quite low.'
Emeritus Professor of Demography Peter McDonald from the Australian National University in Canberra stated that there are several reasons why young Australian women are delaying having children, or not at all.
'Establishing themselves in career, younger people have been putting off life and settling down, by staying in education longer, by travelling and all of those things lead to things occurring later,' he said.
The professor said governments could pull two policy levers to increase fertility rates.
'One is affordable housing, and the other is affordable childcare,' he said.