Cardinals at Rays Prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends and stats for August 21
The Cardinals lost its past outing 6-2 to the Marlins, but won the series to snap a five-game losing streak ahead of this matchup. The Rays are coming off being swept by the Yankees in two-games and a loss to the Giants for three consecutive losses.
Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Cardinals at Rays
Date: Thursday, August 21, 2025
Time: 7:35PM EST
Site: George M. Steinbrenner Field
City: Tampa, FL
Network/Streaming: FDSNMW, FDSNSUN
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Cardinals at the Rays
The latest odds as of Thursday:
Moneyline: Cardinals (-121), Rays (+101)
Spread: Cardinals -1.5
Total: 8.0 runs
Probable starting pitchers for Cardinals at Rays
Pitching matchup for August 21, 2025: Sonny Gray vs. Joe Boyle
Cardinals: Sonny Gray, (11-6, 4.30 ERA)Last outing: 10.80 ERA, 6 Earned Runs Allowed, 9 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 7 Strikeouts
Rays: Joe Boyle, (1-2, 4.68 ERA)Last outing: 18.00 ERA, 4 Earned Runs Allowed, 4 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 3 Strikeouts
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Cardinals and the Rays
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Cardinals and the Rays:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Tampa Bay Rays at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.
Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC.
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Cardinals at Rays
Tampa Bay is 0-3 in the last 3 games
Tampa Bay is 3-3 in the last 6 games
St. Louis is 2-6 over the past 9 games
St. Louis is 4-5 in the past 9 road games
At home this season the Rays have won 17 of 32 games following a defeat
The Rays' last 3 games have gone over the Total
It has been 3 games since the Rays last covered the Run Line
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
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Shane Bieber, in a new uniform and finally back on the mound, is ready to make his mark on the Blue Jays
Shane Bieber strolled back in from the bullpen on Monday at PNC Park, offering head nods and fist bumps to a handful of teammates and Blue Jays staff members on his way to the dugout. On the surface, it was a familiar pregame scene, one featuring a veteran starting pitcher going about his business, completing the necessary work in the days between outings to ensure he's prepared to compete at the highest level. But for Bieber, who is still getting used to his new threads after being acquired by Toronto from the only organization he'd ever known in Cleveland, these seemingly banal moments carry notably more weight. Monday's session was a final tune-up for a day he's been working toward for quite some time. On Friday against the Marlins, Bieber will make his first start for the Blue Jays and his first appearance in the majors since he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024. A highly anticipated return from elbow surgery might not make Bieber especially unique in an era when so many top arms endure injury-related interruptions to their careers. But not all rehabs are created equal, and Bieber's journey has featured more than its fair share of plot twists. As such, his first pitch on Friday is not just the final chapter in his road to recovery but also the triumphant and exciting culmination of so much more. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] 'Threw definitely a new little wrinkle in there, moving to a new country, getting my family acclimated and all the things that come with a midseason trade,' Bieber told Yahoo Sports of the latest phase of his journey. 'I'm grateful for this group. They've made it super easy for me, personally. And for my family, it's gone as easy as it possibly could.' 'The goal doesn't change ... 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He became a free agent for the first time and attracted lucrative offers from other teams, only to re-sign with Cleveland in December, citing his comfort with the only organization he has ever known and a desire to complete his rehab with the Guardians and help them win in 2026. In March 2025, he and his wife, Kara, welcomed a baby boy, Kav, their first child. He made his first official rehab appearance in the Arizona Complex League on May 31 but then was temporarily shut down from throwing after reporting soreness — a normal development during the rehab process but a setback nonetheless. Then, with a return to the Guardians' rotation seemingly within reach in mid-July, Bieber was traded. Sent to Toronto in exchange for stellar pitching prospect Khal Stephen, Bieber was one of just a few starters moved at the deadline, further amplifying the spotlight on his impending return. By any measure, it has been a lot. But now, finally on the precipice of returning to a big-league mound, Bieber is appreciative of the winding path he took to get here and eager to finally resume doing what he does best. 'For me, the baseball stuff is easy. That's what comes natural, and you're able to work your way back to it,' he said. 'The goal doesn't change from a baseball perspective. It's just the city.' For all the significant changes that have unfolded in Bieber's life throughout his rehab process, he has remained laser-focused on the task at hand. 'It's easy to keep things compartmentalized,' he said, 'because ultimately, it's the same game, the same job.' 'Even in Triple-A, he looks like an elite big leaguer' For a first-place Blue Jays team trying to secure its first AL East title in a decade, Bieber represents an injection of impact talent that is rarely available at this time of the season. "You can allow yourself to get pretty excited, adding a guy of that caliber,' manager John Schneider said. 'He's the definition of a pro. I think he fits right in with the guys that we have already in our rotation. Really, really smart. Understands what he's good at, what he's trying to do, and he's confident right now. Looking forward to seeing him in action.' Unlike most modern frontline starters, Bieber has never been known for his velocity. The highest fastball velocity of his career (96.3 mph) came in 2020, and he hasn't crested 95 mph since 2021. Across his three Triple-A rehab starts this month, Bieber's fastball averaged 92.8 mph and topped out at 94.4 mph. But even with below-average velocity, especially for a right-hander, Bieber's precise command and understanding of his arsenal separate him from his peers and enable him to dice up the best batters on Earth. 'You put him in a category of some pretty good pitchers, where they're dominating areas with different pitches, and it makes it really tough to sit on one pitch,' Schneider said. 'He's adjusting as he's going, too, with what he's seeing from hitters. When you have a guy with good stuff, and then you have a guy with really, really good awareness, in real time, I think you get a Cy Young-caliber pitcher.' [Get more Toronto news: Blue Jays team feed] Without the ability to overwhelm opponents with pure power, Bieber deftly deploys his four-seamer around the zone to set up his two primary whiff-inducing weapons, a low-80s knuckle-curve and a sharp, mid-80s slider. Add a cutter and a change-up to assist in neutralizing left-handed batters, and Bieber wields a deep array of offerings that makes for an ultra-uncomfortable at-bat. 'He gave us fits from the other side, always a tough matchup for us,' Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker said. 'He's got tremendous stuff, he's got a repeatable delivery, he executes his fastball and his breaking stuff with the best of them. Very cerebral, smart pitcher who recognizes swings and has a good game plan. And I think you recognize that right away when you watch him pitch.' Bieber has yet to throw an inning for the Blue Jays, but Toronto's coaching staff has already gained a deeper appreciation for the pitcher and the person. 'I've admired him from afar for a number of years,' Schneider said. 'And just in talking to him, you can see why he is as accomplished as he is.' 'He's got an easy personality, an easy way about him. He's an intellect, but he also finds a way to keep things simple,' Walker said. 'He's thrown some really good bullpens here. We've watched all of his rehab games. He's executing his pitches well. He just carries himself like a pro. 'And you know when you watch him pitch, even in Triple-A, he looks like an elite big leaguer.' 'These guys, they're animals' Beginning Friday, Bieber joins a Blue Jays rotation that is in an interesting spot. It's a unit with five established and (currently) healthy hurlers but also one that ranks 20th in ERA and 27th in fWAR on the season. It's a group that includes four accomplished right-handers in Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Max Scherzer, plus a surprise contributor in lefty Eric Lauer. For as effective as he has been since joining the rotation in mid-June (3.05 ERA in 62 innings across 12 starts), Lauer appears to be the most obvious candidate to return to his prior role as a swingman, but the Blue Jays insist that roles could be fluid in the coming weeks as the team figures out the best way to accommodate Bieber's schedule while covering as many innings as possible. However the rotation shakes out over the next few weeks — and, even more intriguingly, once October arrives — Bieber is eager to give his new team a boost, albeit in a different role than the one he filled with the Guardians. In Cleveland, Bieber had comfortably achieved veteran status — 'old and salty,' he joked — and would've been rejoining the starting staff as the most senior member at the age of 30. Instead, with the Blue Jays, not only will Bieber be the new guy, but he'll also be the young gun of sorts, even as his return marks his eighth major-league season. Berrios (31, 10th season), Gausman (34, 13th), Bassitt (36, 11th) and Scherzer (41, 18th) have combined to pitch 7,608 ⅓ innings across 1,265 regular-season starts in their careers. It's an astonishing wealth of experience to draw upon and share, an advantage that is not lost on Bieber. 'It's fantastic,' he said. 'I've had the pleasure of competing against them from the other dugout, so now I get the privilege of getting to know them as teammates and friends. And then also on top of that, just picking their brains on how they like to do things. … I'm eager to ask questions and learn from them as much as I can.' It's a dynamic that Toronto's coaching staff has seen manifest in positive ways even before Bieber's arrival. "When it comes together like that and you got some of the names that we have right now, and the experience, it's a luxury,' Walker said. 'We've got different personalities … but the one variable that's the same is, between the lines, these guys, they're animals,' he continued. 'It's very competitive, a controlled aggression. … They're coming after you. And that rubs off on the teammates. Max [Scherzer], in a way, has rubbed off on his teammates in that aspect. And we expect Shane to do the same.' Beyond the staggering track record of pitching at the highest level, there's an ambitious mentality that separates this group even after all the years — and that's a trait that Bieber clearly exhibits. 'Sometimes guys can be around a long time and lose a little bit, or become a little complacent. This group has zero complacency,' Walker said. 'And you can tell they've all turned it up a notch. In a way, it's a healthy competition. They want to pick each other up. 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Friday at loanDepot Park marks the first step in his personal quest to regain ace status and the first opportunity for him to make an impact for a team that bet big on his resurgence in the thick of a pennant race. 'He's been chomping at the bit,' Schneider said of his new starter. 'Pitchers know how they feel, and I think especially pitchers of his caliber, they know what their stuff is doing. So he's excited, and I think that he's looking forward to Friday as much as we are. 'It's a long road to get back from that injury — days at the complex, minor-league game after minor-league game on such a strict schedule. He's enjoyed just being in the dugout and being part of it now, not even pitching. I'm sure getting back on a big-league mound will be good for him.' As his return to a big-league mound has neared, Bieber's confidence has only increased. But he fully understands the challenge that lies ahead — and that looking sharp in rehab outings can tell you only so much. 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Yes, the SEC's decision may ease and make more productive conversations with Big Ten officials over a future format, but it doesn't mean Big Ten leaders will jump to agree with the proposed '5+11' format that the SEC, ACC and Big 12 have openly supported. In fact, on Thursday, one Big Ten official told Yahoo Sports that while the SEC's move is a positive step, the league has more concerns, most notably related to the CFP selection committee's criteria of choosing what would be 11 at-large playoff teams. Remember, according to an agreement that all the FBS conferences signed last year, the Big Ten and SEC hold authority over future CFP formats as long as they have 'meaningful' conversation with the ACC and Big 12. The disagreement between the two conferences lingers. One wants more at-large selections and another wants more automatic qualifiers. The Big Ten proposed 16 and even 28-team formats that grant an unequal number of AQs to specific leagues, as many as four to each the SEC and Big Ten in a 16-team model circulated this past season and seven AQs for the two leagues in a model that emerged last week. The ACC and Big 12, along with the SEC, have thrown their collective weight behind the 5+11 model, and so have the Group of Six conferences plus Notre Dame. It's put the Big Ten on an island and has resulted in an impasse in CFP format negotiations. The SEC's desire for a 5+11 format 'remains' after the move to a nine-game conference schedule, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey told Paul Finebaum on his show on Thursday. 'There are other ideas that have been talked about. We haven't taken positions on those. Lot of work to be done,' he said. The most recent 'other' idea is a 24 or 28-team format circulated last week by Big Ten leaders. While some SEC school executives are interested in exploring such a model, many others — especially the league's room of presidents — are turned off by such a large postseason field, to the point that one quipped recently, 'It's a non-starter.' Is the SEC's move to nine games a compromise to the Big Ten to get that conference on board with the 5+11 model? After all, Big Ten administrators and coaches have made it clear that they were against a move to a format with such a big at-large pool if the SEC remained at eight conference games. They believe the league would have an advantage in landing those at-large spots (they were probably right on that thinking, by the way). But it may take weeks or months for the Big Ten to gather enough support to push aside its administrators and coaches' desire to have a more NFL-like field with automatic qualifiers. However, the SEC's move to nine wasn't only for CFP reasons, of course. Money is at play here. 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How do you solve the equity consideration? It's pretty simple actually: The SEC's original plan was to use the last 10 years of win-loss records to create tiers and then pair schools that way. But the most important component, probably, is historic rivalries. Anyway, back to the impact nationally. Thursday's decision, for many, came as a surprise. 'That came out of nowhere,' said one SEC leader. 'I wonder what changed?' pondered another. Momentum grew in the spring for a nine-game schedule, coinciding with the Big Ten and SEC's discussion over the '4-4-2-2-1' CFP format that leaned heavily on automatic qualifiers. However, SEC coaches in May rejected the format, and many believed that the league would likely remain at eight conference games. What changed this week? The CFP announced an adjustment to its selection committee criteria in choosing at-large teams, more heavily weighing games against top programs. 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