
Joel Kotkin: Carney's Canada will devolve into feudalism
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In this shift towards oligarchy, homeownership and investment profits play a major role. This is particularly true in terms of housing, where the Liberal Party has long championed 'urban containment,' a policy that seeks to limit suburban and exurban development while promoting dense urban growth. The result, notes a new study by demographer Wendell Cox, has been housing prices that, in terms of the relationship between median home prices and household income, are increasingly out of reach for the average Canadian.
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Immigration, key to Canada's population surge, has contributed to this shortage. While the country's working population swelled by a record 3.7 per cent at the start of this year, housing starts remained essentially flat. At one housing start for every 4.9 people entering the working-age population, 'there is no precedent for a housing supply deficit of this magnitude,' notes National Bank of Canada economist Stéfane Marion. The biggest losers have been people under 40, for whom the homeownership rate has dropped to around 50 per cent, almost 10 per cent less than a decade before. It also helps to have wealthy parents who own a home; children of homeowners are twice as likely to acquire a home as those who do not.
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If you wish to live in Canada's two great international cities, and are not of aristocratic stock, it's getting tough to get shelter. Four of the six major markets in Canada have a median multiple — a ratio of the median house price by the median gross (before tax) annual household income — of 5.4, considerably higher than the US's 4.8. Vancouver now ranks fourth among all anglophone markets at 11.8, behind Hong Kong, Sydney, and San Jose. Toronto, at 8.4, stands as the second-least affordable market in Canada and ranks 84th out of 95 markets in international affordability, with a severely unaffordable median multiple of 8.4. As late as about 1990, national price-to-income ratios were 'affordable,' at 3.0 or less in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
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This pattern severely restricts homeownership, which has been declining since 2021. Not surprisingly, rates are lower in both Vancouver and Toronto than in much of the country. Clearly densification, the preferred growth option of the elites, does not help a housing shortage or reduce prices as Patrick Condon of the University of British Columbia has shown. Indeed, now Vancouver is now producing less-than-half the housing units needed to meet demand, one reason for the high prices even in a weak economy. Condon, an eloquent advocate of densification, cites the 'indisputable' evidence that 'upzoning' increases the value of land (by increasing the development value).
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Concentrations of property and wealth are likely to worsen under the renewed Liberal regime. Planners and climate activists, as in California, a place which almost rivals Toronto and Vancouver in their progressive domination, will likely get even stronger with 'net zero' devotee Carney in charge. Similarly, industries that tend to create high-wage jobs, notably in oil and gas, will find themselves constrained, leaving the big money to financial institutions and those firms who rely on protectionism to shield themselves from both Chinese and American competition.
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Globe and Mail
14 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Canada plans to hit NATO spending target early and reduce reliance on US defense, Carney says
TORONTO (AP) — Canada will meet NATO's military spending guideline by early next year and diversify defense spending away from the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday, asserting that Washington no longer plays a predominant role on the world stage. The announcement means Canada will achieve NATO's spending target of 2% of gross domestic product five years earlier than previously planned. 'Our military infrastructure and equipment have aged, hindering our military preparedness," Carney said. 'Only one of our four submarines is seaworthy. Less than half of our maritime fleet and land vehicles are operational. More broadly, we are too reliant on the United States.' According to NATO figures, Canada was estimated to be spending 1.33% of GDP on its military budget in 2023, below the 2% target that NATO countries have set for themselves. Canada previously said it was on track to meet NATO's target by the end of the decade. 'Our goal is to protect Canadians, not to satisfy NATO accountants,' Carney said. Canada is about to host U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders at a summit of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations in Alberta on June 15-17, and before the NATO summit in Europe. NATO allies are poised to increase the commitment well beyond the 2% target. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week that most U.S. allies at NATO endorse Trump's demand that they invest 5% of gross domestic product on their defense needs and are ready to ramp up security spending even more. Carney has said he intends to diversify Canada's procurement and enhance the country's relationship with the EU. 'We should no longer send three-quarters of our defense capital spending to America,' Carney said in a speech at the University of Toronto. 'We will invest in new submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles and artillery, as well as new radar, drones and sensors to monitor the seafloor and the Arctic.' Canada has been in discussions with the European Union to join an EU drive to break its security dependency on the United States, with a focus on buying more defense equipment, including fighter jets, in Europe. Carney's government is reviewing the purchase of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options. 'We stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans throughout the Cold War and in the decades that followed, as the United States played a predominant role on the world stage. Today, that predominance is a thing of the past,' Carney said in French, one of Canada's official languages. He added that with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the United States became the global hegemon, noting that its strong gravitational pull became virtually irresistible and made the U.S. 'our closest ally and dominant trading partner.' 'Now the United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony: charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security,' Carney said. Trump's calls to make Canada the 51st U.S. state have infuriated Canadians, and Carney won the job of prime minister after promising to confront the increased aggression shown by Trump. The prime minister said "a new imperialism threatens.' 'Middle powers compete for interests and attention, knowing that if they are not at the table, they will be on the menu," Carney said. Carney said the long-held view that Canada's geographic location will protect Canadians is increasingly archaic. European allies and Canada have already been investing heavily in their armed forces, as well as on weapons and ammunition, since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
35 minutes ago
As new U.S. travel ban arrives, some Canadian dual nationals are worried
Christian Kodia is accustomed to visiting the United States on a weekly basis, but with a new travel ban coming into effect on Monday, he's not sure if that will continue. Kodia is a dual national with citizenship from both Canada and the Republic of Congo, one of 12 states whose citizens U.S. President Donald Trump has now banned from entering that country. I travel to the United States of America, I would say, every weekend. I go to visit my family, I go for business, I go for friends, said Kodia, president of the Congolese-Brazzaville Community of Ottawa-Gatineau. Even though Kodia has a Canadian passport, he's unsure of what kind of welcome to expect from U.S. customs. It's going to be difficult, he told Radio-Canada, predicting that the ban would have a huge, negative impact for many people. Citing national security, Trump said Thursday (new window) his administration would block entry for citizens of Afghanistan, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Trump also announced restrictions to limit the entry of nationals of seven other countries: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. In the case of the Republic of Congo, Trump cited high rates of overstaying among citizens visiting the United States: 29.6 per cent of those on temporary business or tourism visas, and 35 per cent of students and exchange visitors. Darlène Lozis, an organizer with the Haitian community in Gatineau, Que., worries that with much of her homeland controlled by gangs, Haiti's government won't be able to push back against the U.S. travel ban. (Boris Proulx/Radio-Canada) Photo: (Boris Proulx/Radio-Canada) For other countries he cited links to terrorism, failure to accept deportees or a lack of central authority as justification for barring their citizens. If we had a government, a strong one, one that we elected, they [would] be able to deal with [Trump], said Darlène Lozis, a Haitian community organizer in Gatineau, Que. Lozis said with much of her home country controlled by armed gangs, she doesn't think Haiti's government will be able to advocate for the rights of its citizens. Whatever we do won't change anything. That man is a fool, she said, referring to Trump. He will continue doing and saying whatever he wants. Entering 'the lion's den' Dual nationals like Kodia are now trying to establish whether they can still legally enter with their Canadian passports. But Ottawa immigration lawyer Betsy Kane suggests that given the potential risks, it's not even about what's legal. Kane said she's asking her business clients whether it's worth risking the well-being of their staff by sending them to the United States, especially if they are dual nationals from one of the banned countries. It's about putting yourself in the lion's den, said Kane, stressing that she's not a U.S. immigration specialist. U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents have wide discretion whether to admit travellers to the United States — even if they have a valid visa. They also have the power to detain people for questioning and to search their electronic devices. In April, Global Affairs Canada updated its travel advisory (new window) for the United States, warning Canadians to expect scrutiny, which could include those devices. It also warned that Canadians denied entry could be detained while awaiting deportation. In an interview with the Canadian Press on Friday (new window) , U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said if a Canadian faced device searches, or detainment at the border, it was an isolated event and not a pattern. Campbell MacDiarmid (new window) · CBC News


CTV News
35 minutes ago
- CTV News
Elbows-up tourism surge could see sector ‘eke out' a gain even as Americans stay away
From the front desk of Hotel Bedford in Goderich, Ont., Lynda Cross welcomes guests from regions ranging from southern Ontario to the South Pacific. 'A lot of them come from Toronto,' said the manager, standing just inside the Romanesque arches of the 129-year-old establishment. 'Just lately, we've had a few groups come from Australia' — a first, she said. But one crop of tourists has been conspicuously absent this year: Americans. 'May and June have been slow.' A groundswell of economic patriotism has stoked curiosity in Canadian destinations, fuelling a domestic bookings surge as travellers turn away from cross-border trips. But a drop in American visitors north of the border and fears that many Canadians will simply stay home to save money has many wondering whether homegrown and overseas tourism can make up for the stateside decline. Canadian vacationers' boycotting the U.S. could net this country's tourism sector up to $8.8 billion in extra business this year as travellers explore spots closer to home, according to a report from the Conference Board of Canada. An April survey on travel intentions prompted the group to predict a windfall despite fewer border crossings this year by American tourists — Canada's largest source of inbound travellers by far. The number of Americans who visited Canada by car fell nearly 11 per cent in April compared with the same month last year, the third straight month of year-over-year decreases, according to Statistics Canada. While trip numbers for Canadians heading to the U.S. have fallen off far more steeply as part of a backlash against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and '51st state' threats, Americans' more moderate pullback owes to factors ranging from pinched pocketbooks to fears of feeling unwelcome to angst over the border crossing on the drive home. The American retreat could hit communities that hug the border especially hard. 'Border towns that have tended to experience the shorter, more frequent back-and-forth visits — those are going to be communities that are going to be more heavily affected,' said Andrew Siegwart, who heads the Tourism Industry Association of Ontario. Duty-free stores have seen their revenue drop by 60 to 80 per cent in the last few months, according to an association representing 32 of the mostly mom-and-pop shops. Whether overseas travellers can make up for much of the lower American traffic across the country is questionable. Visitor volume from China, previously a key source of tourists, sat at 40 per cent of 2019 levels last year amid ongoing restrictions on group travel to Canada, according to Destination Canada. The federal government imposed new visa requirements on Mexican visitors last year, making it harder for tourists from that country to come. 'Travel from India has also been down for a number of reasons. So it's going to take some time,' said Siegwart. However, many America-averse Canadians are spending their travel budget in their own backyards. More than half of respondents to a survey released Monday by Ontario's travel regulator said they were more likely to make excursions closer to home, with the trend holding across all age groups. 'It could be a year where we manage to stay on par with last year, or maybe even eke out a little bit of a gain,' said Siegwart. But he acknowledged the hurdle of consumer anxiety over the economy. 'I'm cautiously optimistic,' he said, 'but it's too early to tell.' Summer bookings were either the same or higher than last year at two out of three businesses surveyed by the association in a poll released last month. John Steele, who owns seven hotels in Newfoundland and Labrador and one in Fredericton, said visitor levels look 'pretty good' at most of his properties but softer in Gander. New direct flights to St. John's from London and Paris have made it easier for international travellers to come from away. 'Air access seems to be improving for us. That's a big thing for us,' Steele said. At Okanagan Wine Country Tours in British Columbia, bookings from Europe and the United Kingdom have risen about 20 per cent year-over-year, said partner and manager Marsha Morrish. 'The traffic from Quebec is up substantially,' she added. Americans are more tepid — even those who do head north. 'They did email me to do a bit of a temperature check on how Canadians were feeling about Americans visiting,' Morrish said, referring to a Colorado couple coming up to sample Pinot Gris. While there's a chance American tourist numbers could surge, it's unlikely to happen this year, Siegwart suggested — including for corporate gatherings. 'Some convention centres, both in Ontario and across the country, have seen some drops in American conference bookings.' Much of it has to do with personal safety and security, as some workers worry about how they'll be treated at the border. 'Depending on your immigration status, depending on if you're a member of an LGBTQIA community, if your gender markers or identities on your passports are different than your gender expression — all sorts of things like that are really coming into play,' Siegwart said. 'My colleagues south of the border are a little more cautious in how they plan things because of the unpredictable way in which their administration is conducting business.' On the flip side, there's more interest from corporate event planners in Europe 'who still want to come to North America but see Canada as a safer bet.' Some Americans remain undeterred though. 'I've seen way more people from the States this year,' said Wendy Mooney, owner of Country Hideaway RV Campground, which sits barely a kilometre from the border in the B.C.'s West Kootenay region. 'Some people just fly by the seat of their pants.' This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 9, 2025. Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press