Consumption expected to pick up, public investment likely to remain key growth lever: K M Birla
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India's will remain the fastest growing major economy in 2025-26 on the back of sound microeconomic fundamentals and a robust financial sector, leading industrialist Kumar Mangalam Birla said.India has emerged as an "outlier of stability and momentum" in a world adrift, the Aditya Birla Group 's chairman said in the latest annual report of the flagship firm UltraTech Cements."With projected GDP growth of 6.4-6.5 per cent, it retained its crown as the fastest-growing major economy. The final quarter surged to 7.4 per cent, powered by construction, manufacturing, and sustained government capital outlay," Birla said in his address to shareholders. The annual report was released on Monday.However, on the outlook for the external sector, though exposed to global turbulence, remains cautiously optimistic, he said, adding that the ongoing trade negotiations and regional partnerships offer a buffer against a volatile trade landscape."While global financial market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and trade fragmentation pose downside risks, India's sound macroeconomic fundamentals, robust financial sector, and commitment to sustainable growth position the economy to remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2025-26," he added.The UltraTech Chairman said manufacturing momentum is expected to build in the country, helped by the government's production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme.Moreover, the new National Manufacturing Mission and infrastructure remains a priority, buoyed by initiatives under Gati Shakti, higher allocations for affordable housing, and a renewed push under the Asset Monetisation Plan.On the world economy, Birla said, "Looking ahead, global growth is expected to moderate to 2.8 per cent in 2025 before edging up to 3 per cent in 2026."In this, much of the drag is expected from advanced economies, with their collective growth projected to slow from 1.8 to 1.4 per cent, he said.However, Birla also said monetary easing and subsiding inflation offer some tailwinds, though vulnerabilities such as geopolitical conflict, high borrowing costs, and deteriorating trade dynamics still persist."Inflation is projected to fall further to 4.3 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026, but service sector inflation remains sticky, and trade disruptions could yet spark fresh cost pressures," he said.Moreover, new tariffs and retaliatory measures risk pulling global trade volumes into contractionary territory.However, he said, "recent bilateral trade deals suggest that diplomacy is not entirely off the table, even as rhetoric hardens".USD 67-billion Aditya Birla group business is spread across 41 countries, and around 50 per cent of the revenue is from its global operations.The group has launched new platforms and rapidly scaled in segments such as paints, jewellery retail, and in B2B e-commerce."At the same time, we deepened leadership in our core sectors like cement, metals, fibre, chemicals, and financial services. Each move was consequential on its own," he said.
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