Which power company is winning from the high rainfall?
'Regulatory uncertainty continues to overhang the sector, with no updates on the imminent ministerial review or the Energy Competition Task Force's level-playing-field measures,' the broker said.
'Nevertheless, we do not expect either to materially affect valuations.'
A commissioned report on the sector from Frontier Economics is understood to be with the Government.
Forsyth Barr's preferred sector pick remained Mercury, which it rated as 'outperform'.
The other companies were rated neutral.
It said Mercury was the biggest beneficiary of recent wet weather, with rain in the North Island boosting generation at its Waikato hydro chain by about 120 gigawatt hours (GWh) – up 50% on the prior month.
Genesis also gained an additional 60GWh from its North Island hydro.
Fast start
Forsyth Barr also noted that Genesis is considering a new 50MW–100MW multi-fuel peaker at Huntly, targeting commissioning by winter 2027.
However, the investment would require capacity payments from other market participants to proceed.
The fast-start plant would complement the slower-starting steam turbine Rankine units, although the grid-scale battery already under construction at Huntly could serve a similar role.
Genesis is investigating three fuel options for the project, each with challenges: natural gas supplies are tight; liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports appear unlikely; and diesel is very expensive, the broker noted.
Genesis Energy's Rangipo Dam. Photo / Brett Phibbs
The project also competes with Channel Infrastructure's (CHI) proposed diesel peaker at Marsden Point, which is seeking similar capacity contract support.
If diesel is the likely fuel, CHI's peaker's proximity to existing diesel storage means it would be better placed.
'Given New Zealand's gas shortage, additional peaking capacity would be valuable, although the likely high generation costs mean we wouldn't be surprised if neither project proceeds,' Forsyth Barr said.
Longer run
Meanwhile, Jarden, taking a longer-term view, said it believed the electricity sector had passed peak wholesale pricing.
'After a significant run-up over the last four years, we expect wholesale prices, and company long-run expectations, to begin retracing as a substantial pipeline of new generation projects comes online and a partial roadmap toward capacity support starts to emerge,' Jarden said.
Jarden's report went into 'overbuilding' – constructing more capacity than is needed to ensure reliability when hydro levels are low.
'We still view the sector as offering value; despite a likely overbuild scenario developing and the upward cycle of retail pricing likely coming to an end, the higher level of certainty around risk should offset these pressures,' it said.
Jarden said Contact Energy was its top pick because it offered a compelling combination of growth and yield, further enhanced by the strategic acquisition of Manawa Energy.
The broker has retained its 'buy' rating on the stock.
Tariff overhang
Leading exporter Skellerup has detailed the impact that US tariffs will have on its business.
Skellerup generates around 35% of group revenue from sales in the US market.
About 85% of this revenue comes from products made at its own and partner facilities in New Zealand, China and Vietnam.
Skellerup previously reported that the tariffs announced during April 2025 (and changes subsequently) would not materially impact results for the year ended June 30, 2025.
The company is due to report its result on August 21 and its guidance is for net profit of $52 million to $56m. Skellerup said it had made steady progress mitigating the impact of tariffs on its business.
Skellerup has detailed the impact that tariffs will have on its business. Photo / Christine Cornege
Forsyth Barr said the tariff overhang on Skellerup (SKL) was starting to clear.
'Both the Vietnamese tariff rate and Skellerup's confidence in full mitigation are better than we had modelled, and we lift our forecasts accordingly,' the broker said.
'Skellerup successfully offset tariffs imposed during the first Trump presidency, likely has pricing power given the characteristics of its products, and has a track record of continuous product cost improvement.
'On our revised forecasts, Skellerup is trading on relatively unchallenging multiples and medium-term growth is underpinned by new products and low debt.'
Village optimism
Summerset Group reported 402 sales for the quarter ending June 30, comprising 222 new sales and 180 resales.
Chief executive Scott Scoullar said this was the company's highest quarter ever and was the result of a lot of hard work throughout the company.
'We've seen continued high demand for our retirement living offering. It's certainly not an easy sales environment for us but we're very happy with our progress so far this year and we'll continue to work hard to bring new residents to our villages over the second half of the year.'
It was also the company's highest-ever first-half total sales with 692, up 18% on the first half of 2024.
Scoullar said Summerset's diverse landbank was an advantage and continued to deliver for the company, with over 46.7% of sales coming from outside Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch.
Summerset's update was against a backdrop of higher industry inventory and a loss of sales momentum for the sector's largest player, Ryman, over the course of its 2025 financial year.
The company's half-year result is due on August 28.
IPO listing drought
New Zealand is not alone when it comes to a lack of initial public offers.
The Financial Times reports fundraising from initial public offerings in London has tumbled to its lowest level in at least 30 years, in a stark sign of the waning attractiveness of the UK's equity markets for companies and investors.
The five listings on UK markets in the first six months of the year raised £160m ($362m), the lowest half-year amount going back to 1995.
The total marks a 98% fall from a bumper six months of fundraising at the start of 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic and is below the levels reached in 2009 after the Global Financial Crisis, the paper said.
However, the same publication reported the number of companies applying for a listing in Hong Kong this year has hit an all-time high.
A total of 208 companies applied for primary or secondary listings on the Hong Kong Exchange in the first six months of this year, beating the previous record of 189 companies in the same period in 2021, the Financial Times said.
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.
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