Bolivians head to polls in uncertain vote that could shift political landscape
Bolivians headed to the polls on Sunday to vote in presidential and congressional elections that could spell the end of the Andean nation's long-dominant leftist party and see a right-wing government elected for the first time in over two decades.
The election on Sunday is one of the most consequential for Bolivia in recent times — and one of the most unpredictable.
Even at this late stage, a remarkable 30 percent or so of voters remain undecided. Polls show the two leading right-wing candidates, multimillionaire business owner Samuel Doria Medina and former President Jorge Fernando 'Tuto' Quiroga, locked in a virtual dead heat.
But a right-wing victory isn't assured. Many longtime voters for the governing Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party, now shattered by infighting, live in rural areas and tend to be undercounted in polling.
With the nation's worst economic crisis in four decades leaving Bolivians waiting for hours in fuel lines, struggling to find subsidized bread and squeezed by double-digit inflation, the opposition candidates are billing the race as a chance to alter the country's destiny.
'I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite,' Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of Aurora Macro Strategies, a New York-based advisory firm, writes in a memo. Breaking the MAS party's monopoly on political power, he adds, pushes 'the country into uncharted political waters amid rising polarization, severe economic fragility and a widening rural–urban divide.'
The outcome will determine whether Bolivia — a nation of about 12 million people with the largest lithium reserves on Earth and crucial deposits of rare earth minerals — follows a growing trend in Latin America, where right-wing leaders like Argentina's libertarian Javier Milei, Ecuador's strongman Daniel Noboa and El Salvador's conservative populist Nayib Bukele have surged in popularity.
A right-wing government in Bolivia could trigger a major geopolitical realignment for a country now allied with Venezuela's socialist-inspired government and world powers such as China, Russia and Iran.
Doria Medina and Quiroga have praised the Trump administration and vowed to restore ties with the United States — ruptured in 2008 when charismatic, long-serving former President Evo Morales expelled the American ambassador.
The right-wing front-runners also have expressed interest in doing business with Israel, which has no diplomatic relations with Bolivia, and called for foreign private companies to invest in the country and develop its rich natural resources.
After storming to office in 2006 at the start of the commodities boom, Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous president, nationalized the nation's oil and gas industry, using the lush profits to reduce poverty, expand infrastructure and improve the lives of the rural poor.
After three consecutive presidential terms, as well as a contentious bid for an unprecedented fourth in 2019 that set off popular unrest and led to his ouster, Morales has been barred from this race by Bolivia's constitutional court.
His ally-turned-rival, President Luis Arce, withdrew his candidacy for the MAS on account of his plummeting popularity and nominated his senior minister, Eduardo del Castillo.
As the party splintered, Andrónico Rodríguez, the 36-year-old president of the senate who hails from the same union of coca farmers as Morales, launched his bid.
Rather than back the candidate widely considered his heir, Morales, holed up in his tropical stronghold and evading an arrest warrant on charges related to his relationship with a 15-year-old girl, has urged his supporters to deface their ballots or leave them blank.
Voting is mandatory in Bolivia, where some 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote.
Doria Medina and Quiroga, familiar faces in Bolivian politics who both served in past neoliberal governments and have run for president three times before, have struggled to stir up interest as voter angst runs high.
'There's enthusiasm for change but no enthusiasm for the candidates,' said Eddy Abasto, 44, a Tupperware vendor in Bolivia's capital of La Paz torn between voting for Doria Medina and Quiroga. 'It's always the same, those in power live happily spending the country's money, and we suffer.'
Read moreBolivians march four days to protest against economic hardship
Doria Medina and Quiroga have warned of the need for a painful fiscal adjustment, including the elimination of Bolivia's generous food and fuel subsidies, to save the nation from insolvency. Some analysts caution this risks sparking social unrest.
'A victory for either right-wing candidate could have grave repercussions for Bolivia's Indigenous and impoverished communities,' said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, a Bolivian research group. 'Both candidates could bolster security forces and right-wing para-state groups, paving the way for violent crackdowns on protests expected to erupt over the foreign exploitation of lithium and drastic austerity measures.'
All 130 seats in Bolivia's Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Parliament, are up for grabs, along with 36 in the Senate, the upper house.
If, as is widely expected, no one receives more than 50 percent of the vote, or 40 percent of the vote with a lead of 10 percentage points, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on Oct. 19 for the first time since Bolivia's 1982 return to democracy.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
WP urges Government to engage widely, explore all solutions following National Day Rally 2025
SINGAPORE – The Workers' Party (WP) has urged the Government to engage widely and explore all policy suggestions in good faith, including previously untapped ones. In its response to the 2025 National Day Rally, the opposition party said Singapore should 'leave no stone unturned' in collective efforts to build a truly resilient nation for the future. The WP issued its statement following Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's Rally speech at ITE College Central on Aug 17, where he called for Singaporeans to unite to write the next chapter of the country's history and outlined new schemes to support workers and independent living for seniors, among others. PM Wong also spoke extensively about the challenges Singapore faces, including an unstable global economy and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) impacting jobs and businesses. The WP addressed some of the new initiatives, and added its suggestions and concerns. On government efforts to address economic concerns, WP said it agrees that Singapore's economy needs to 'keep up with the times'. Responding to a new scheme announced by PM Wong during the Rally where Community Development Councils will match workers with jobs near their homes, the WP said: 'We agree with the approach of improving job-matching efforts for Singaporeans, and ask that the relevant organisations accelerate the setting up of this programme with the economic uncertainty ahead.' It added that in the party's experience, many residents referred to NTUC's Employment and Employability Institute receive career counselling, but 'not the direct job-matching support they truly need'. 'The new approach reflects what many job seekers are looking for: not just advice, but real opportunities and connections to employers who are hiring,' it added. It urged the Government to also tackle 'present concerns surrounding businesses and employees', including rising rental costs, skills-related underemployment and 'slow rate of real income growth of 0.7 per cent per annum over the past five years'. The WP reiterated some proposals from its GE2025 manifesto. These included having JTC Corporation, which oversees industrial infrastructure, expand its market share to offer low-rent options for small and medium-sized enterprises, and for a statutory minimum wage to be established. The party also responded to PM Wong's announcement of a new government-funded traineeship scheme for graduates from the Institute of Technical Education, polytechnics and universities. PM Wong said the scheme will begin as a 'focused' one which can be scaled up if the economy worsens. The WP said it recognises the importance of helping young graduates and mid-career workers find their footing, but urged the Government to ensure the programme is designed with safeguards so that it is effective and fair. The party said: 'State-sponsored internships and apprenticeships must not be used by companies only as a source of cheaper, subsidised labour. 'There should be clear performance metrics and a transparent commitment from participating companies to consider trainees for full-time employment once the training period ends.' It is also essential that all trainees receive basic workplace protections, including paid sick leave and safe working conditions, it added. The party will advocate for fair, transparent and sustainable employment pathways, especially for younger Singaporeans and those navigating mid-career transitions, it added. On the impact of AI on schools and the economy, the WP said it agrees with the importance of preparing students for life, not just exams – which PM Wong said the Government is doing more of. The WP called for an increase in the number of allied educators, which can lead to a 'meaningful reduction in class sizes' so students receive the attention they need to develop essential soft skills such as empathy and adaptability. The opposition party also called on the Government to improve social safety nets in the light of the ongoing disruptions caused by AI adoption, and reiterated its call for Singapore to introduce redundancy insurance. The WP said it looks forward to championing these ideas and others in the 15th Parliament. The party will have 12 MPs in the House when Parliament reopens on Sept 5, its largest-ever contingent. Progress Singapore Party (PSP) chief Leong Mun Wai also released a statement following the Rally in which he welcomed immediate support for new graduates but raised concerns that these proposals 'risk being mere Band-Aid solutions that do not address our country's deeper structural issues'. PSP also said the new government-funded traineeships raise the question of whether tertiary education is adequately preparing young people for the workforce 'if graduates are increasingly expected to settle for traineeships instead of full-time jobs'. Singapore must confront some fundamental questions in the years ahead, and the PSP believes these are not questions the Government can answer alone, said Mr Leong. 'Ultimately, the National Day Rally provided some ideas, but many critical questions on key issues such as housing affordability and cost of living were left unanswered,' he said. 'The PSP will continue to push for more fundamental reform in these areas and provide alternative policy proposals.' Watch PM Wong's National Day Rally speech here: Source: The Straits Times © SPH Media Limited. Permission required for reproduction Discover how to enjoy other premium articles here
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Bolivia election could see lurch to right as once-dominant party's time runs out
In Plaza Murillo, the heart of Bolivia's political capital, La Paz – and home to the presidential palace, parliament and the country's main Catholic cathedral – time may be running out for a clock that runs backwards. Installed atop of the congressional palace during the years of prosperity under former president Evo Morales, 65, the anti-clockwise timepiece was conceived as a symbol of the 'decolonial and anti-imperialist' worldview championed by the left. But it has since become an emblem of the decline of Morales's Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) party – with some saying that, as the country faces its worst economic crisis in 40 years, Bolivia itself has been moving backwards. And when 7.9 million Bolivians head to the polls this Sunday to choose their next president, Mas not only risks losing power after nearly 20 years – but it could disappear as a political force altogether. Polls point to a potential runoff between two rightwing candidates: the centre-right business tycoon and former planning minister Samuel Doria Medina, 66, followed closely by Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga, 65, a rightwing former president who briefly led the country in 2001 after the resignation of the former dictator Hugo Banzer. The deeply unpopular current president, Luis Arce – a former finance minister under Morales who wrested control of Mas from his former mentor – opted not to seek re-election and instead nominated his 36-year-old minister of government, Eduardo del Castillo. Unlike previous elections in which Morales and then Arce secured outright first-round victories with over 50% of the vote, Del Castillo is now polling below 3%, the minimum threshold for a party to remain eligible to contest future elections. Related: Plotting a comeback, Bolivia's ex-leader defies arrest warrant in jungle hideout 'Arce will go down in history as the one who buried the 'father', seized the party and, in all likelihood, led it to its end,' said the political and economic analyst Gonzalo Chávez Alvarez, a professor at the Universidad Católica Boliviana. Although polling in Bolivia has historically proved unreliable, the prospect of a party that was once hegemonic now teetering on the brink of oblivion is anything but trivial. 'I can bet we won't lose our legal status,' Arce told the Guardian late on Thursday, arguing that polls failed to predict his first-round victory in 2020. Even so, the president showed little confidence in any surprise from the left and said he would respect the result if the right won. 'If they are democratically elected, why not accept it?' he said. 'And we will mobilise to resist, to be the opposition, of course.' 'I had high hopes for this government but now I only feel disappointment,' said Pablo Quispe, 55, who has sold hats for the past 25 years in a street market in El Alto – a booming high-altitude city near La Paz that was once a Mas stronghold. After years of prosperity driven by a natural gas boom, reserves dwindled during the final years of Morales's presidency, triggering an economic crisis that has deepened ever since. 'The gas that should have sustained the country for much longer – and then generated resources to be invested in other sectors, diversifying the economy – wasn't used that way,' said Alvarez. Under Arce, the economy has deteriorated further: by July 2025, annual inflation had reached 24.8%, the highest level since at least 2008. Just as Bolivia celebrates 200 years of independence, there are shortages of fuel and US dollars, leading to scarcities and long queues even for bread. Related: Deadly clashes over Morales candidacy deepen Bolivia crisis in election run-up 'Everything is more expensive, and we're barely getting by,' said Quispe, who previously voted for Mas but now plans to vote for Medina because 'the left just isn't working any more'. Leticia Guarachi Padilla, a 35-year-old leftist entrepreneur who runs a small business installing blinds and curtains, plans to spoil her ballot in protest over Morales's exclusion from the race. The first Indigenous president in Bolivia's history and the country's longest-serving leader, from 2006 to 2019, Morales was barred by the constitutional court, which ruled that he has already exceeded the two-term limit, and the electoral court, which has argued that his party is not formally registered. Since October, he has remained entrenched in central Bolivia, where hundreds of coca farmers have prevented police from executing an arrest warrant issued against him over allegations that he fathered a child with a 15-year-old while in office. In recent weeks, Morales has urged supporters to cast blank votes – claiming that if the number of spoiled ballots exceeds the share won by the top candidate, it would mean he had won. The highest-polling leftwing name is that of Andrónico Rodríguez, a 36-year-old senator, polling third to fifth. Once seen as Morales's natural heir due to his Indigenous roots and leadership in the coca growers' union, Rodríguez was labelled a traitor by his former mentor after deciding to launch his own candidacy and has seemed unable to rally support from the fragmented left. 'I voted for Evo every time he ran, and I don't regret it because he promoted structural changes that favoured the poorest,' said Padilla, who acknowledged the former president's 'problems', including 'his relationships with underage girls and the fact that he sees himself as a saviour, driven more by ego'. But she still believes he should have run. 'Voting for Doria or Quiroga means voting for imperialism and for the US to retake control of Bolivia,' she said. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up, a second round will be held on 19 October, which would be unprecedented in the country's history. Doria Medina and Quiroga are running for the fourth time, but still present themselves as political outsiders. Both advocate spending cuts as their main strategy to tackle the economic crisis. Quiroga says he would prioritise relations with the United States, while Doria Medina has promised to restore the supply of dollars and fuel within 100 days. His campaign slogan is '100 días, carajo' (100 days, dammit), a reference not to the Argentine president Javier Milei's libertarian rallying cry 'Viva la libertad, carajo!' (Long live freedom, dammit!), but to the 2005 plane crash Doria Medina survived, after which he said: 'Carajo, no me puedo morir' (I can't die, dammit!). Riding a motorbike decorated with campaign flags, automotive engineer Juan Pablo Rodríguez, 28, attended Doria Medina's final rally in La Paz on Tuesday with his wife, Michelle López, also 28, and their one-year-old daughter. 'Samuel can fix the crisis because he's a great businessman,' he said. One of Bolivia's wealthiest men, with a fortune in cement, hospitality and fast food, Doria Medina told the Guardian that if elected, he plans to restore the Plaza Murillo clock to its original, clockwise direction: 'Rationality will return, at last.' The current clock, he said, symbolised a country 'moving backwards'. The clock – with the number 12 still at the top, but with hands turning to the left to count the hours – was installed in 2014 on the initiative of David Choquehuanca, then foreign minister under Morales and now vice-president under Arce. He claimed it was a way to affirm Bolivia's identity as a 'southern nation', arguing that a southern hemisphere sundial shadow moves left. But physicist Francesco Zaratti, an emeritus professor at the Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, has long argued the clock 'makes no scientific sense', noting that in Bolivia the shadow can sometimes move right. 'When we have a new president, I bet it'll be one of the first things to go, as a symbolic end to Mas's 20-year cycle in power,' said Zaratti. Grover Quispe Lima, 35, looks at the clock every day as he sells maize to feed the hundreds of pigeons in Plaza Murillo. He has been walloped by the crisis, with maize prices rising from 120 (£13) to 200 (£21) bolivianos in a year. 'To me, it's irrelevant whether the clock moves backwards or forwards – the only thing that matters is that the next president improves our country,' he said. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Bolivia presidential election: preliminary results put two rightwing candidates in run-off vote
Bolivia's presidential election will go to a run-off for the first time, with two rightwing candidates competing for the presidency – marking the end of nearly 20 years of dominance by the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas). The candidate with the most votes, however, turned out to be a surprise: centre-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, 57, who had started the campaign with just 3% support in opinion polls. In second came Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga, 65, a rightwing former president who briefly led the country in 2001 after the resignation of ex-dictator Hugo Banzer. Related: Bolivians go to polls in election that could end 20 years of leftist rule With just over 92% of ballots counted in the electoral court's 'preliminary' tally, Paz Pereira was on 32.1% and Quiroga on 26.9%. 'I want to thank all the men and women who made this possible and gave a voice to those of us who had none, who didn't appear in the polls, who didn't exist,' said Pereira, the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, who governed from 1989 to 1993. Pereira, the senator for Tarija, gave effusive thanks to his running mate, former police captain Edman Lara Montaño, who became known for exposing police corruption and who, according to many analysts, was a decisive draw for voters. 'We will fight corruption head on, dammit!' Pereira shouted to journalists and dozens of supporters waiting for his speech late on Sunday in La Paz. Quiroga said: 'It is a historic night – not for one party, not for one faction, not for one candidacy, but for all Bolivians who have spoken with strength, with faith, with hope and with dignity. Today, we have taken a giant step towards a better tomorrow.' The electoral court stressed that the figures are 'preliminary and not definitive'. That is because Bolivia uses two counts: a quicker one, based on photos of each ballot sent to a data-processing centre, and the slower definitive one, where every vote is publicly counted and scrutinised at polling stations before entering the system. The court has up to seven days to release the official results. As neither secured more than 50% of the vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up, a second round will be held on 19 October. Like the first round, the run-off campaign is expected to be dominated by the economic crisis – the worst in four decades – with shortages of dollars and fuel and rising inflation. Deeply unpopular president Luis Arce, of Mas, chose not to seek re-election and instead put forward his interior minister, 36-year-old Eduardo del Castillo, who won just 3.15% of the vote. It is a paltry share compared with the more than 50% that had secured first-round victories for Arce and former president Evo Morales in the past – but just enough for the party to avoid losing its legal status, as the threshold is set at 3%. According to the preliminary count, 19.1% of ballots were null and void – far above the historic average in Bolivian elections, which has typically been below 5%. Bolivia's first Indigenous leader, Morales had spent recent weeks urging his supporters to cast null and void votes in protest against rulings by the constitutional and electoral courts that blocked him from seeking a fourth term. Business tycoon Samuel Doria Medina, 66, who had led polls for much of the campaign, ended up third with 19.89% of the vote. Doria Medina acknowledged his defeat and announced that he would back Paz Pereira in the run-off. In the Bolivian press, analysts suggested one possible advantage for Paz Pereira was that the campaign battle in recent weeks had been concentrated between Quiroga, Doria Medina and the left, leaving the senator outside the main line of attacks – or even of fake news campaigns. Also, polls indicated there were still large numbers of undecided voters before election day. The highest-placed leftwing candidate was Senator Andrónico Rodríguez, 36, who left Mas to run with a small coalition. Having once polled as high as third, he eventually finished fourth with just over 8%. More than 2,500 national and international observers, from bodies including the European Union and the Organisation of American States, monitored the vote and were expected to publish their preliminary reports in the coming days. During the day, they said polling had proceeded normally. According to the electoral court, the election took place without problems, apart from some 'isolated incidents.' One of them involved Rodríguez. As he voted in Entre Ríos, a Morales stronghold about 50 miles from where the former president remains entrenched, the 36-year-old senator was booed and pelted with stones by what he described as 'a small group of extremists identified as supporters of Morales.' Rodríguez had to be escorted by a member of the armed forces to cast his vote. He was not injured. Once seen as Morales's natural heir due to his Indigenous roots and leadership in the coca growers' union, the senator was called a traitor for launching his own candidacy. Wanted on an arrest warrant since October for allegedly fathering a child with a 15-year-old, Morales voted in Villa 14 de Septiembre, about 25 miles from the tiny village where hundreds of coca growers have prevented police and the army from detaining the former president. Morales denies having committed any crime and claims the case is part of a plan by the current government to destroy him politically. President Arce, who served as Morales's finance minister before becoming his main rival, cast his vote in La Paz and said he would ensure 'an absolutely democratic transition' in November, when the next president is sworn in. Solve the daily Crossword
