Tropical Storm Dexter: Live Tracker as Chances of Forming Quadruple
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Chances that Tropical Storm Dexter will form within the next 48 hours have quadrupled since a forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Monday.
As the storm takes shape, Florida can expect heavy rainfall. Even if the storm doesn't form, the heavy rain will move across the Sunshine State and into the Gulf, where it will impact coastal states later this week.
As of Tuesday around noon Eastern time, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek the storm was moving inland and bringing "really, really heavy rain."
Why It Matters
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1. The last storm to form was Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month.
NHC meteorologists are currently monitoring a low-pressure system east of Florida that has a 40 percent chance of becoming tropical within the next 48 hours. Should it form, the storm will be named Dexter.
The development comes as meteorologists predicted an above-average hurricane season this year for the Atlantic.
A map from the NHC shows there is a 40 percent chance Tropical Storm Dexter will form within 48 hours.
A map from the NHC shows there is a 40 percent chance Tropical Storm Dexter will form within 48 hours.
National Hurricane Center
What To Know
On Monday, the NHC said there was a 10 percent chance the storm would form within the next two days. By that afternoon, the chance had increased to 20 percent.
By Tuesday morning, the chances increased again to 40 percent. The NHC cautioned that even if it doesn't form, Florida can expect some impact, such as heavy rain and flash floods.
Weather Radar
Animated weather maps from windy.com showed a cluster of storms in Florida near the state's Atlantic coast.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the storms have not yet organized into a tropical system. DaSilva told Newsweek he doubts the storm will strengthen while it moves over land.
Wind
Despite the lack of organization, some strong winds are still expected with the storms. Sustained winds of around 25 mph were recorded in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of Florida. Winds were gusting around 36 mph.
A tropical storm has sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph. A tropical storm becomes a Category 1 hurricane once sustained winds hit 74 mph.
Rain
Meteorologists warned that the biggest impact from the storm will be heavy rain. Over the next three days, windy.com forecasts that Central Florida could receive around 2 inches of rain.
The highest rainfall amounts will be coastal Louisiana, which could receive up to 4 inches.
What People Are Saying
The NHC, in a forecast: "This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf."
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in an AccuWeather report: "Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain."
What Happens Next
Heavy rain is expected to cause flash flooding in Florida through mid-week, the NHC forecast said. Then, flash flooding and heavy rain will hit the Gulf Coast later this week.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.
The hurricane map in the Atlantic Ocean may be nearly blank now, but forecasters say that may not last much longer, as several signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin. "The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks," said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY. WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed with this prediction, telling USA TODAY that "we're already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up... The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24's long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August." Has it been a slow start to season? With three named tropical storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal) so far, the number of storms is actually above average for this time of year. "Currently, we're above-normal for named storms but below normal for all other metrics," Klotzbach said. One of those metrics is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a key measurement of the severity of a hurricane season. ACE measures the total wind energy produced by a season of tropical storms and hurricanes. It measures the intensity and duration of storms, and gives a better indication of overall activity than simply counting the number of storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By that measurement, this is the slowest start to an Atlantic season since 2009, as the three storms that formed were all rather weak, though Chantal did cause some deadly flooding in North Carolina. 'Approaching a pivot point' The season is about to heat up, Lowry said, as August is the month when activity usually ramps up. Lowry said that "despite the slow start we're approaching a pivot point in the Atlantic. Hurricanes aren't common in June and July. They happen, of course, but there are usually tall hurdles to overcome to get there." However, he added "that's not the case in August, September, and the first part of October. Those hurdles are a lot shorter so the right window can get you a big hurricane in a hurry," he said. What does the rest of July look like for development in the Atlantic? "Things look pretty quiet overall," Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY in an e-mail. "There are some stronger waves starting to show up in the Central Atlantic, but right now, dry and sinking air is making development tough. There's another wave coming off (Africa) that may have a slight chance of development in about a week or so near the Caribbean Islands," he said. A slow July isn't unusual: "The season is usually pretty quiet through July," Klotzbach noted. "On average, we've got over 95% of major hurricane activity left to go and still about 93% of ACE left to go. On average, our first hurricane forms in the Atlantic on August 11." What's the forecast for the first couple weeks of August? Hazelton explained that "large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear. Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active." Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse: The 2025 hurricane season is off to a perplexing start "So in short, July should end with little fanfare, but we'll need to watch for an uptick in activity come the first and second week of August," Lowry said. What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation? Something to be watching over the next few weeks is the passage of the rising branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, largely a nonplayer so far this hurricane season, Lowry explained to USA TODAY. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, noted Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Jon Gottschalck in an online report. The MJO influences tropical cyclone activity in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins during the Northern Hemisphere summer. "As we head into early August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation should be moving into more favorable phases for Atlantic hurricane activity as well," Klotzbach said. "Typically phases 1-3 are when the Atlantic really ramps up." He said the latest European model forecast has the MJO moving into phase 1 the first week in August. Are waters warm enough for hurricanes to develop? Hurricanes need warm water to form, preferably 79 degrees or above, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are starting to warm up: "One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages," Lowry said. "To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average." He said that during this past week, MDR water temperatures have surged to the 7th warmest in the satellite record (back to 1981), running only slightly cooler than 2017 and 2005 at this point in the season. At the same time, he said the belt of water just north of the tropics has cooled since the start of the season, creating a more conducive orientation that favors rising air and storminess in the tropical Atlantic. "The central MDR looks reasonably primed for development," noted Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in a Substack post. What's the status of Saharan Dust? How about the Bermuda High? Dust billowing out of the Sahara Desert in Africa can impact Atlantic hurricanes. According to the University of Miami, the Saharan Air Layer – a mass of dry, hot, and dust-laden air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall, and moves over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean – can suppress tropical cyclone formation. "As far as the Saharan dust, it's been the lowest on record so far this hurricane season. This could actually be a symptom of less robust tropical waves that transport the dust across the Atlantic, but over the past week, the waves have been noticeably stronger," Lowry said. "Dust seasonally drops off quickly in August, so, except for sporadic outbreaks, Saharan dust becomes less of a factor in August and September," he added. As for the Bermuda High, a strong area of high pressure in the Atlantic, Hazelton said, "the stronger Bermuda High that has been present this summer (and brought a lot of the moisture into the U.S. that has enhanced the flooding) can also bring down more dry air from near Europe into the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation. We'll see if that pattern changes as we head into mid August." Rough hurricane season still expected The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to a preseason forecast from NOAA. The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast. The ultimate preparedness checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season 2025 is about to heat up, forecast says
CBS News
a day ago
- CBS News
Heat continues through the weekend, with high fire danger in western Colorado
The heat continues for Colorado this weekend, and so does the mostly dry weather. As a result, the fire danger is incredibly high for the western half of the state, which is why a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 p.m. While a large portion of the state will be dry Saturday, there is a chance a few of us could see an isolated afternoon storm. The best chance for storms will be in the mountains and on the eastern plains. Some of the storms could turn severe in the far northeast corner. It is going to feel like summertime in Colorado with temperatures in the 90s both Saturday and Sunday. The current record for Sunday is 98 degrees, and there is a chance to tie it. The heat sticks around until Wednesday, when the ridge of high pressure that's kept Colorado hot breaks down some. Not only will temperatures drop into the 80s, we will also see rain showers with the return of monsoonal moisture. This will be a welcome sight after a couple of dry and hot days.
Newsweek
a day ago
- Newsweek
Map Shows Heavy Rain as Flash Floods Hit Three States
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flash flood warnings for parts of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri, as thunderstorms in the region bring heavy, rapid rainfall. Why It Matters Flooding is the second deadliest weather hazard nationwide, with most fatalities occurring when vehicles are swept away by rising waters. On July 4, Texas flash floods killed at least 135 with three still missing. As of mid-July, the NWS has issued a record number of flash flood warnings year-to-date, with 3,160 warnings issued through July 16, according to Iowa State University's Iowa Environmental Mesonet tracker. What To Know In a Saturday advisory, the NWS warned that portions of the three states are under flash flood warnings due to expected thunderstorms that will bring heavy rain. As of Saturday morning, "between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen," and the "expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 1 inch in 1 hour." For parts of southeastern Iowa, west central Illinois, and northeastern Missouri flash flooding is already occurring, the NWS warned. Missouri Department of Transportation reported that portions of some roads have been closed due to water on the roadways. NWS warned people to "turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads," noting that "most flood deaths occur in vehicles." Nearly half of Iowa is also under extreme heat watch on Saturday, as July continues to bake the area with frequent heat indexes into the triple digits. Heat index values reflect how hot it feels when both temperature and humidity are factored in. What People Are Saying NWS Des Moines wrote in a Friday X, formerly Twitter, post: "Dangerous heat & humidity builds across Iowa through early next week. Maximum heat index values are expected to exceed 100 degrees everywhere, with a few locations potentially exceeding 110F! An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for western/central Iowa beginning Sunday." AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva previously told Newsweek: "When the atmosphere is getting warmer as a what it's doing is making summer warmer and the shoulder seasons warmer as well. What's happening is those seasons, especially in the summertime, the [atmosphere's] ability to hold more moisture is going up as well. It doesn't guarantee we will see more rain over a certain area, it rains, it's going to rain heavier." Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm expert, wrote in a July 15 X post: "So far in 2025, more flood warnings have been issued by @NWS than any year on record (since 1986)." AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said in a July 21 AccuWeather article: "So far in 2025 across the U.S., there's been a 70% increase in reports of flash flooding when you compare that to the 10-year historic average through mid-July." What Happens Next? Many of the flash flood advisories are until 11:30 a.m. local time.
