How does NZ outrun the grizzly bear?
Diplomacy is mostly a long-term game. Alliances and partnerships require constant attention. Negotiations can take years not months to conclude. Abrupt decisions can have unintended and damaging consequences. Trust built up over time can be quickly eroded.
Today's global environment is marked by an upending of the order (or imperfectly managed disorder) to which we had become accustomed since the end of the Cold War. Geopolitics is back and 'trumping' (sic) geoeconomics. The world now faces more military conflict than it has for some time – in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, as well as escalations in South Asia just recently – although the causes of these conflicts run deep across generations.
The US-China relationship remains difficult, despite a trade deal and somewhat less bellicose commentary from Washington. But the fault lines are deeply entrenched and flash points in the South China Sea and Taiwan strait remain; an accident could easily lead to conflict.
The world has been witness to 30 years of progressive trade liberalisation and economic integration – markets becoming more open, borders becoming more like bridges, sometimes with tolls, rather than high and impenetrable walls. But this new wave of protectionism is giving way to something different. The art of the deal is replacing the rule of trade law; a new licence has been given for protectionism, not just in the US but in other countries as well.
We are also seeing a blurring of the lines between security and economic dimensions. Trade bans and tariffs are not just economic instruments but means of political coercion. Take for example China's trade actions against Australia, now thankfully removed, or in recent days the US threat of a 50 percent tariff on Brazil seemingly because of the Brazilian justice system's handling of a case against former president Jair Bolsonaro.
What is a small, open and trade dependent economy, far away from overseas markets, to do?
There's little doubt we are beginning to feel the cold winds of these developments, despite the distance. Over time we have proved ourselves remarkably adept at navigating a complex and changing world. We have long experience right back to colonial days in dealing with countries larger and more powerful.
Apart from trade threats from France during the Rainbow Warrior affair, we have not experienced significant coercion, not even as a result of our principled anti-nuclear legislation. Our independent foreign policy, with Australia as our only formal ally, has served us well. While we have very little to offer trading partners in terms of access to our small market, around 80 percent of our trade now flows to markets where we have free trade agreements. Not all of them provide largely tariff-free market access, but some do, most importantly China.
How we continue this delicate balancing act between competing political and economic partners is the key issue facing our foreign policy today.
New Zealand has always sought to be a responsible global citizen, with soft power influence which belies our size. What we cannot contribute with hard power like arms or funding, we substitute with ideas and practical cooperation. We are willing to join new arrangements and attend to the plumbing of the international system by serving on bodies at the United Nations or the World Trade Organisation. It's not just altruism – smaller countries need the insurance of multilateral institutions to help protect them from the larger powers. We have for example won every dispute settlement case we have taken in the World Trade Organization.
These institutions and processes are today under threat. The world risks paying a high price if they are permanently damaged. Because precisely at a time when trust between nation states is at an all-time low, we face some unprecedented challenges.
The most pressing is the climate crisis which risks radically altering the way we live, or even the ability to live at all, certainly in some parts of the world not so far from Aotearoa. We are also in the midst of a technological revolution, with new technologies like artificial intelligence with potential to revolutionise the way we work. With such significant change come new threats for which we need to be prepared. Add to that a lack of economic and social development in numerous countries and the very real risk of another pandemic, it's easy to see that more international co-operation is required not less.
In this conflicted and less trusting world, New Zealand is not without agency. We have a vital interest in preserving the international system which has served us so well: this means engaging proactively and respectfully with the United Nations, even if we ourselves may face criticism, and implementing, not questioning, the undertakings like the Paris Agreement we have entered into.
This is exactly the time when our support matters. But the rules alone may not save us.
While firmly anchored together with our Pacific whanaunga in our own neighbourhood, we are part of many different groupings of countries – now is the time to leverage and mobilise those relationships. We should of course continue to cooperate with the large powers where it makes sense to do so.
At the same time, we should lend our independent voice and soft power to build new coalitions fostering peace and development: the recent multi-country statement on Gaza is welcome but could go further. Another is the Prime Minister's recent outreach to CPTPP partners and the EU calling for a new dialogue on global trade rules. Expanding and deepening CPTPP should also be on the agenda.
The biggest risk to New Zealand today is that we could find ourselves trapped in one or other 'camp' based on others' interests and values. While some may play poker, raising the stakes at every turn, we should remain open to a range of views and partners as we play the long game of diplomacy.
Mā te rongo, ka mōhio. From listening, comes knowledge.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
NZ Herald
an hour ago
- NZ Herald
How Trump's funding cuts threaten US science and global innovation
Khvorova built her career by thinking boldly, but if slowdowns and cuts to federal science funding continue, she'll be forced to winnow her ambitions. 'What is happening right now is absolutely suicidal,' said Khvorova, speaking softly in Russian-accented English. 'I will stop making drugs. I will reduce my lab from 30 people to five. I will stop training scientists.' With stunning speed, the Trump Administration has over the past six months cut research dollars, terminated grants and hit the brakes on federal funding, destabilising an 80-year-old partnership between the government and universities that has made the United States a scientific superpower. The policy twists may sound arcane, but to researchers, everything is at stake. Day-to-day, Khvorova's lab is bright and buzzing. Scientists are trying to develop cures for Huntington's disease or halt the muscle loss that comes with ageing. Longer term? 'I have no clue,' Khvorova said. The Trump Administration portrays its changes as a targeted correction. Officials say grants are being terminated because they touch on topics with which the Administration disagrees, such as increasing diversity in science. Funding to specific universities has been frozen because they haven't protected Jewish students, according to the Administration. Fundamental research, Trump officials vow, will thrive. 'The money that goes to basic and blue-sky science must be used for that purpose, not to feed the red tape that so often goes along with funded research,' Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science Technology and Policy, said in a speech at the National Academy of Sciences in May. From left, Gregory Smith, Nathan Gioacchini and Philip Soglo synthesise strands of RNA at U-Mass Chan Medical School. Photo / Kate Wool, The Washington Post In contrast, a recent report from the American Association for the Advancement of Science found that President Donald Trump's budget request for 2026 – including a 40% cut to the National Institutes of Health – would slice the nation's basic research portfolio by about a third. A new report from the Congressional Budget Office found that a 10% cut to the NIH budget would result in two fewer drugs invented per year, a gradual decline that would go into full effect in 30 years. The Trump Administration's science agenda is getting pushback in courts, in Congress and at the state level, but the impacts are being felt in research institutions across the country. As of August 1, the Chan Medical School had a US$37 million ($62m)shortfall in funding because of long delays at the National Institutes of Health. Khvorova is no stranger to doing science under challenging conditions. She trained at Moscow State University in the waning days of the Soviet Union, when there was sometimes no hot water, no reagents for experiments, no salaries. Even that has not prepared her for the abrupt policy swings that threaten the unique American research system. 'We are working on developing cures, which are not politically oriented,' Khvorova said. 'Democrats age, and Republicans age.' Disruptions will ripple over decades, since no one can predict what science breakthroughs in the lab will turn into world-changing innovations. Khvorova's work built off years of federally funded research into soil-dwelling microscopic roundworms that revealed short strands of RNA perform like symphony conductors, controlling the activity of genes and turning their volume down. Worcester, a gritty former mill city in Central Massachusetts, is home to two Nobel laureates and an RNA Therapeutics Institute that has spawned 12 start-ups. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, a company based on the phenomenon originally discovered in roundworms in labs at Chan Medical School and the Carnegie Institution of Washington, has discovered six drugs now approved for diseases that include rare genetic conditions and high cholesterol. The company's market capitalisation has soared to more than US$50 billion, and it has 2200 employees. Basic research 'is almost like the starter when you bake sourdough bread. You can't make the bread without it,' said John Maraganore, who led Alnylam for nearly two decades before he stepped down in 2021. 'Girls just wanna have (NIH) funding' In the labyrinthine, slightly cluttered labs at Chan Medical School, scientists tend to high-end instruments with geeky names like 'Dr Oligo', using them to synthesise strands of RNA aimed at treating fatal forms of dementia or diseases that cause muscles to waste away. Under sterile hoods, they grow millions of mouse liver cells for experiments. In a small room called the 'wormhole', decorated with colourful worms hanging from the door jamb like icicles, Victor Ambros, a Nobel Prize-winning worm biologist, zooms in on mutant roundworms wriggling across a yellowish agar gel. Unlike Harvard University, which has had billions of dollars in funding choked off by the Trump Administration, Chan hasn't been targeted. But it is not untouched. Like hundreds of other institutions across America, it has been thrown off stride day-to-day and week-to-week by the Trump Administration's unprecedented efforts to downsize and reshape the agencies that support science. Uncertainty looms over nearly every experiment and conversation. Slogans, not scientific sketches, are scrawled on the frosted glass wall of one office: 'We want scientific data, not alternative facts!' 'Girls just wanna have (NIH) funding' 'Science Not Silence!' More than a dozen NIH grants, out of several hundred, have been terminated, though they are tangled up in lawsuits challenging the Trump Administration's actions. About 200 employees have been laid off or furloughed, about 3% of the medical school's 6500 employees. A hiring freeze has been in place since March. Graduate school offers to nearly 90 young biomedical scientists were rescinded, though 13 spots were salvaged for next year's class. 'We have this feeling of extreme uncertainty, in a context where, previously, we could depend upon a robust system, a merit-based system that was predictable for the right reasons – the best science will get funded,' said Ambros, who shared the Nobel in medicine last year. Jesse Lehman, a graduate student who focuses on understanding the speed and dynamics of immune defences against pathogens, became hooked on science when he first felt the rush of discovering things no one else knew. There are no guarantees in this career – the contest for federal funding is exceptionally competitive. But what has fuelled the system is its reliability. The federal Government funds the best research, year after year, and scientists chase grants without worrying that the funder may lose interest in neuroscience or immunology and decide instead to buy a sports team. But now, federal funding may be there one moment and gone the next. 'I have this fear that the career that I've worked 10 years on developing just may not be viable,' Lehman said. The 20-year path to success Research institutions nationwide experience layoffs and uncertainty due to the funding reductions. Photo / Kate Wool, The Washington Post In textbooks, science is a steady march of progress. In the lab, it's an iterative process – filled with detours and dead ends that sometimes turn out to be surprises that push the field forward. In 2006, Chan biologist Craig Mello shared the Nobel Prize with Stanford University biologist Andrew Fire for the discovery of a phenomenon called RNA interference: short double strands of RNA could silence genes. It is a profound biological mechanism shared not just by tiny worms, but by humans. Other scientists built on the work, capturing the interest of venture capitalists and pharma companies. Many human diseases are caused by errant genes. What if, instead of treating patients' symptoms, doctors could give their patients drugs that just shut off the problematic ones? More than a billion dollars flowed into start-ups, but biology turned out to be a bit more complicated. Investor ebullience evaporated. Alnylam, an RNAi company, began trading below the amount of cash it had on hand, meaning investors thought its stock was less valuable than the money it had in the bank. Years of science – including a lot of chemistry – eventually turned a profound biological mechanism into a new class of safe effective drugs. 'Sickness doesn't have political boundaries,' said Phillip Zamore, a co-founder of Alnylam and a professor of biomedical sciences. 'Everyone deserves a better treatment for their disease, and I just want to make that possible. And I can't do that if my lab, my university, my colleagues' ability to do science is destroyed.' In the past few years, several biotech companies have spun out of Chan, including Comanche Biopharma, which is focused on a treatment for pre-eclampsia – a complication of pregnancy – and Atalanta Therapeutics, which is searching for cures for neurodegenerative diseases. Khvorova, a co-founder of both companies, came to the US with very little money in the mid-1990s, intending to check a box on her CV and stay a year or two. Instead, she became a 'typical example of the American Dream', as she puts it. She's an inventor named on nearly 250 patents. She just scooped up one of the most prestigious prizes in biomedical research, with a US$2.7m award. She should be on top of the world. But as she walked to her lab on a recent Tuesday, she gestured sadly at a collection of empty champagne bottles sitting high up above the cabinets in the lounge outside. Each bottle, she noted, is a trained graduate student – a reminder that most of next year's class was turned away.
NZ Herald
a day ago
- NZ Herald
European leaders plan Ukraine talks with Trump before he meets Putin
Trump said he expected the meeting with Putin to be 'constructive' and expressed unhappiness with Zelenskyy for ruling out territorial concessions to Russia. 'I'm going to speak to Vladimir Putin and I'm going to be telling him 'you've got to end this war,'' Trump said at a White House press conference. As EU foreign ministers began an emergency meeting on Ukraine, Merz announced the initiative to keep Europe at the table. Merz's office said he would talk to leaders from 'Finland, France, the UK, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, the heads of the European Commission and Council, the secretary general of Nato, as well as the US president and his deputy'. According to Germany's Bild daily, a first conference call will include the European leaders, Zelenskyy, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte. This would be followed by a joint call with Trump and Vice-President JD Vance, the newspaper said. The idea of a US-Russia meeting without Zelenskyy has raised concerns that a deal could require Ukraine to cede swathes of territory, which the EU has rejected. Over the weekend, several European leaders pushed Trump to exert more pressure on Russia in a joint statement and warned that 'the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine'. 'Testing Putin' Before Monday's EU talks, Zelenskyy warned against capitulating to Putin's demands. 'Russia refuses to stop the killings, and therefore must not receive any rewards or benefits. And this is not just a moral position – it is a rational one,' Zelenskyy wrote in a statement published on social media. 'Concessions do not persuade a killer,' he added. Asked if Zelenskyy could be present at the Alaska summit, US ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker responded that 'yes, I certainly think it's possible'. 'Certainly, there can't be a deal that everybody that's involved in it doesn't agree to. And, I mean, obviously, it's a high priority to get this war to end.' The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, also said any US-Russia deal to end the war had to include Ukraine and the bloc. 'The US has the power to force Russia to negotiate seriously,' she said. 'Any deal between the US and Russia must have Ukraine and the EU included, for it is a matter of Ukraine's and the whole of Europe's security.' As a prerequisite to a peace settlement, the Kremlin has demanded Kyiv pull its forces out of several regions claimed by Moscow, commit to being a neutral state, shun US and EU military support and be excluded from joining Nato. Kyiv said it would never recognise Russian control over its sovereign territory, though it acknowledged that getting land captured by Russia back would have to come through diplomacy, not on the battlefield. Both sides have meanwhile stepped up aerial assaults, with Ukraine claiming to have hit a facility that produces missile components in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region. Local authorities said one person was killed in the attack and two were wounded. Russia's defence ministry said on Monday its forces had captured the village of Fedorivka in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. The village is northeast of the embattled towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnograd towards which Russia has been advancing. -Agence France-Presse
NZ Herald
a day ago
- NZ Herald
The Russian past of Alaska, where Trump and Putin will meet for summit talks on Ukraine war
Bering's expedition kicked off a century of Russian seal hunting, with the first colony set up on the southern Kodiak Island. In 1799, Tsar Paul I established the Russian-American Company to take advantage of the lucrative fur trade, which often involved clashes with the Indigenous inhabitants. However, the hunters overexploited the seals and sea otters, whose populations collapsed, taking with them the settlers' economy. The Russian empire sold the territory to Washington for US$7.2 million ($12m) in 1867. The purchase of an area more than twice the size of Texas was widely criticised in the US at the time, even dubbed 'Seward's folly' after the deal's mastermind, secretary of state William Seward. Hunters return from a trip along the coast of the Bering Sea near the climate change-affected Yupik Eskimo village of Quinhagak in Alaska. Photo / Mark Ralston, AFP Languages and churches The Russian Orthodox Church established itself in Alaska after the creation of the Russian-American Company, and remains one of the most significant remaining Russian influences in the state. More than 35 churches, some with distinctive onion-shaped domes, dot the Alaskan coast, according to an organisation dedicated to preserving the buildings. Alaska's Orthodox diocese says it is the oldest in North America, and even maintains a seminary on Kodiak Island. A local dialect derived from Russian mixed with Indigenous languages survived for decades in various communities – particularly near the state's largest city Anchorage – though it has now essentially vanished. However, near the massive glaciers on the southern Kenai Peninsula, the Russian language is still being taught. A small rural school of an Orthodox community known as the 'Old Believers' set up in the 1960s teaches Russian to around a hundred students. The Saint Sophia Orthodox Church where the Reverend Michael Trefon who is of Yupik Eskimo descent, is the rector and conducts Russian Orthodox church services. Photo / Mark Ralston, AFP Next-door neighbours One of the most famous statements about the proximity of Alaska and Russia was made in 2008 by Sarah Palin, the state's then-Governor – and the vice-presidential pick of Republican nominee Senator John McCain. 'They're our next-door neighbours, and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska,' Palin said. While it is not possible to see Russia from the Alaskan mainland, two islands facing each other in the Bering Strait are separated by just 4km. Russia's Big Diomede Island is just west of the American Little Diomede Island, where a few dozen people live. Further south, two Russians landed on the remote St Lawrence Island – which is a few dozen kilometres from the Russian coast – in October, 2022, to seek asylum. They fled just weeks after Putin ordered an unpopular mobilisation of citizens to boost his invasion of Ukraine. For years, the US military has said it regularly intercepts Russian aircraft that venture too close to American airspace in the region. However, Russia is ostensibly not interested in reclaiming the territory it once held, with Putin saying in 2014 that Alaska is 'too cold'. -Agence France-Presse
